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Ford writes off $20 billion EV venture. Vin-Fast, with $65 billion of investor money, fails completely.

Photo Above - the quaint Merry Oaks Baptist Church is being blamed for the failure of a $65 billion EV company. But the facts are more complicated, as usual. And taxpayers may have saved a bundle . . .

Ford’s value (market cap) was $54 Billion yesterday. Today it wrote off $20B on its failed EV ventures. Does that mean Ford’s actual market value is now $34 billion, and their stock should also fall 40% - from $13 to $8? I'm not holding my breath, although I do have a longstanding alert at Merrill if Ford returns to it's 52 week low ($8.12, in April).

Evidently Ford is killing off more than one EV. But the model dominating the headlines is the electrified F150 Lightnin' pickup. Turns out there’s NOT actually unlimited demand for battery trucks costing nearly $100,000. Who would have predicted THAT?

“Trump’s policies” gets the blame from Democrats for Ford's decision. But that’s BS. You can’t call an EV car or truck successful if people only buy it with a $7,500 bribe. Only 6,000 Lightnings were sold since the start of the year. Consumer demand was going to be unlimited, right? Owners would be desperate for bragging rights at the Home Depot parking lot on Saturday mornings.

Ford is also halting construction on its Kentucky Battery Plant (thank you again, taxpayer subsidies) as part of the write-off. Evidently those batteries are not only too expensive for vehicles, there’s no also demand for them as home “power wall” systems to store solar energy for use after sundown.

The culprit here is EV technology itself. It's still not affordable. Planet earth is still stuck with liquid sodium ion EV batteries. Which cost a fortune to assemble, weigh a ton, and catch fire when you least want it. The long promised (cheaper, better, lighter) solid state batteries are still nowhere on the horizon, despite dozens of announcements in the past 2 years about amazing breakthroughs.

In case you think I’m picking on Ford, you’re wrong. The biggest EV collapse this week was not Ford, or the continued cratering of Tesla sales. It was "Vin Fast", a company you never heard of. InVietnam. For a couple of months this EV maker was the “most valuable car company on earth”, because investors rushed to pour $65 billion into it. Headquarters in Hai Phong. $65 billion! To be fair to Vin Fast, they WERE talking up a possible North Carolina factory. But ran into opposition when their plan involved bulldozing a 2 room Baptist church built in 1888.

Or maybe the Vin Fast factory killed was because they were losing $3 billion a year on their cars. Politicians in North Carolina promised to shower $300 million in taxpayer money on Vin Fast for it’s proposed factory after seeing the artist's renderings. Taxpayers dodged a bullet this time. Vin Fast’s failure certainly has nothing to do with Trump’s policies either. They failed because of crappy design, lackadaisical assembly, and overambitious pricing. Let’s see if someone uncovers embezzlement and fraud too, okay?

I’m just sayin’ . . .

Ford retreats from EVs, takes $19.5 billion charge as Trump policies take hold

The electric Hummer is almost outselling the F-150 Lightning | TechCrunch

Is VinFast Going Out Of Business? - CarsDirect

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bowman81 · M Best Comment

If EV's were such a good idea they would sell themselves. They wouldn't need the government rebates.

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jackjjackson · M

The problem with your view is that she is correct and don’t dare write otherwise you have a reliable source and a link to it. @G7J2O

G7J2O · M

@jackjjackson I don’t have to. @ElwoodBlues has already dismantled her argument more thoroughly than I could have done.

jackjjackson · M

So you can’t are are making up stuff 🤣🥺 @G7J2O

ArishMell · 70-79, M

It's wrong to allege or even insinuate fraud unless you have definite evidence, but what you describe there boils down to poor policies by Ford itself, and an unthinking rush to invest .

That last made me wonder if the EV industry is becoming another "bubble", though, given the vast investments and promises by Ford and Vin Fast.

Then decided, probably not, at least not world-wide.

I think Ford is a bit behind the times because other manufacturers in Europe and Japan, and Tesla in the USA, have been successfully building and selling fully-electric and hybrid cars for some years now. They also seem to be solving the problem of making heavier, battery-electric vans of 1 to 1.5t capacity; previously of limited power and range for size and capacity.

As yet I don't think anyone has really made a battery-powered, heavy, off-road works vehicle equalivalent to the 'Ford Lightning' and Toyota 'Hi-Lux'. The nearest US one is the Tesla 'Cybertruck' but its use is probably limited, it has a poor quality reputation and it does not meet the construction regulations in many countries already importing the Tesla saloon cars without difficulty. I am sure it will come, but from the likes of Volkswagen which is already making medium-size E-vans so has the relevant engineering and market experience.

I can understand buyer reluctance in a continent-sized nation like the USA, with very big distances between towns, but the ranges of ordinary battery-electric saloon cars have increased considerably from their early versions.

The manufacturers' problems are technical (but although the fire hazard exists its risk is probably over-stated); but perhaps more so of market-judgement; and it would seem Ford and its investors failed on the second.

They are by no means the first company to do so and won't be the last. However, though you might think a conglomerate owned and run by remote, mere money-men likely to make such a gross error, you'd not expect it from a long-established, major company within its own industry.

......

Ironically, battery-electric cars, light vans, even small lorries were common in many European and American cities more than 100 years ago.

The City of London even allowed electric cars on the roads in the Royal Parks, from which the new-fangled petrol ones were barred due to their noise and their noisome exhaust! These early EVs were out-competed largely on range by the internal-combustion engine, by the 1920s.

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SusanInFlorida · 31-35, F

@ElwoodBlues whats your point here? ford actually made affordable vehicles that were "best in class" at the time. he didn't make a cheap knockoff of something else and price it sky high.

ElwoodBlues · M

@SusanInFlorida says

ford actually made affordable vehicles that were "best in class" at the time

And yet it still took over ten years for Model T sales to take off. Do you suppose Henry Ford's detractors were declaring not only the Model T but gasoline automobiles in general a failure after the first 3 years of disappointing sales??

whats your point here?

My point is that reports of the death of the electric vehicle are greatly exaggerated.

ArishMell · 70-79, M

@SusanInFlorida He did, and part of the secret of course, allowing that affordability, was developing the assembly-line system.

He did not invent the concept completely. That had come mainly from clock- and arms- manufacturing in different countries; but he worked it up into an industrial scale. The assembly-line is still with us of course, but with far more automation it needs far fewer operators.

I think he was also not afraid to develop the products, in an era when many manufacturers were content to think their successful designs would continue to be successful. Consequently when Ford built its first factory in the UK, assembling imported Model T kits, it soon built a brand-new factory that produced the Model A, Y and later cars; and now has a very large R&D site as well as two production factories here.

Crazywaterspring · 61-69, M

Why can't we have BYDs in North America? The Chinese have figured out how to build a reliable and affordable vehicle.

I drove a BYD for a few weeks in the Philippines last year. I would buy one.

SusanInFlorida · 31-35, F

@Crazywaterspring BYD is trying how to set up a dealer network. companies like Mitsubishi, Isuzu, Volvo, Mini, and Alfa Romeo have failed miserably at this.

BYD cars - the affordable ones - are good for grocery runs, but don't pass highway crash tests. they are penalty boxes on the interstate, with deafening noise and weak acceleration.

think back to the first cars from Japan.

Crazywaterspring · 61-69, M

@SusanInFlorida BYDs are selling like mad in Mexico. They're building several factories there. The previous US administration put a 100% tariff on them. The car makers here are content to put out crappy vehicles that start having major problems as soon as their leases are up.

SusanInFlorida · 31-35, F

@Crazywaterspring i've posted (in the past) my objections to mass tariffs on everything. however, i do believe China should be shunned for imprisoning 1 million uighurs and threatening to invade taiwan

bowman81 · M

Thanks for the Besty.

whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M

Ford just had a reality check they havent seen since the Edsel..There is a limit to which even Americans will sink in paying too much for sh*t product. And the infrastructure for proper roll out of EVs certainly isnt going to happen under a Trump administration, even if the vehicle wasnt out of date tech and overpriced. And all at a time when the economy is visibly tanking and credit for a vehicle is harder to find..
Ford really ran into a perfect storm and should have seen it coming from miles away..😷

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swirlie · 31-35

@whowasthatmaskedman

Now almost everything is made in China.. Or the components inside it are. The real difference between a top end brand and a Big Box special in the level of service when it goes wrong.

What I learned the hard way from my dishwasher which was made in Europe, was that it cost more in labor to dig to the root of the problem while the unit is sitting up on top of a shop work bench, then it costs to actually replace the part itself once they reach it within the center of its own dishwasher universe.

That 'repair' experience cost me $800 and a new dishwasher itself only cost about $1500.

That repair lasted exactly 3 months before the same thing happened again, at which point I invested my repair money into a new unit, but this time I bought a Bosch dishwasher and I've never looked back.

One thing the repairman told me as he tried to console me while I sat curled in the fetal position on my kitchen floor as he worked around me, was that the same repair to a Bosch dishwasher only costs $60 in parts plus about the same in labor.

The reason for this is that Bosch is designed to have the entire assembly removed in one piece very quickly and replaced as one component as well. It's cheaper at all levels to replace one assembly unit than to remove each component separately on a work bench, which of course makes sense.

He was saying that anytime an appliance (like a microwave) is assembled in 1000 different individual pieces, it's done that way to serve the labor market at the assembly plant, which means making an appliance is a make-work project for the manufacturer, but does not serve the consumer at all.

jackjjackson · M

I hope the same applies to my Bosch wall oven when the repair person comes. @swirlie

swirlie · 31-35

@jackjjackson
At the end of the day, its probably cheaper to eat in restaurants.

swirlie · 31-35

What you're talking about here are the effects of EV on the North American marketplace. In Sweden and other Scandinavian countries including central Europe, Swedish and Chinese-made EVs are highly successful and are considered by the CEO of Ford Motor Company to be the best EVs money can buy, of which Ford, GM and Stellantis cannot even attempt to compete with. This is why he is shitte-scared of Chinese EVs being allowed into North America. If that happens, the American auto industry is done.

ArishMell · 70-79, M

@swirlie @SusanInFlorida Interesting... I'd not known of that.

It seems very strange for a country that likes to think itself so technically advanced, that its own motor industry has slipped behind an obviously growing and future part of the industry.

Could it be too little interest among American buyers though, for the manufacturers or (perhaps more likely the Wall Street shower) to risk investing in much EV development and production? Despite export potential?

swirlie · 31-35

@ArishMell
The problem is Mell, that somebody has to pay for the infrastructure to charge all these EVs that suddenly came rolling down the assembly line, so who should foot the bill for the installation of chargers? Should it be the auto industry or should it be the government?

As it stands now, the government wants to come out looking like the hero, but it doesn't want to spend any money for the infrastructure because after all, the government is not in the auto business!

At the same time, the auto industry currently gets no kick-back from each charge that is done to an EV at a charging station, so what's the incentive to forge ahead with EV technology in North America?

In Sweden when I was last there visiting some relatives (the same ones I introduced to turkey dinner!), the EV charging stations in Sweden are located 20 kms apart ..and are solar powered ..and were installed by the Swedish government ..and all charging fees generated from each EV charge go directly back to the government electronically.

Keep in mind, Americans are not innovators, they are consumers who are wholly dependent on the rest of the world to feed America's appetite for 'stuff'. It was not an American mind that put Neil Armstrong on the moon, it was a collective of German minds mated with German technology that was originally intended for Hitler's missile program in the 1940's that put US into space after Hitler's German scientists were given US citizenship after WWII if they'd come and work for the US government. And so off to America they went, since nothing was worth staying for in Germany after the war.

The only way that EV ground travel will be successful in America is if the US government stops pretending that they know what they're doing and they allow foreign masterminds to come into the US to set things up for them. If that doesn't happen, Americans will still be driving around in petrol-powered pickup trucks 40 years from now.

G7J2O · M

More far right rantings.

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laotzu92 · M

@G7J2O better than YOUR far left rantings.

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