Why redistricting (gerrymandering) structurally favors Republicans

A) Because they control more unified state governments with majorities in both legislative chambers and the Governorship.

B) Because Republicans control more populous states with narrower margins of victory (Texas (+14), Florida (+13), Ohio (+12), North Carolina (+3), Georgia (+2)), while the Democrats generally control populous states with wider margins of victory. (Maryland (+28), Massachusetts (+25), California (+20), Washington (+18))

C) Because Democrats have maxed out their advantages in populous blue states like California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey and Washington.

In California, the ratio between currently held Democratic and Republican Congressional seats is ~17/83 while the actual electoral balance is closer to ~ 38%/58% that’s a ~23 point distortion. In New York the distortion amounts to ~16 points, ~ 21 points in Washington, ~28 points in Illinois and ~22 points in New Jersey.

Meanwhile, the distortion in populous red states, is generally lower. ~7 points in Georgia, ~9 points in Texas and ~ 11 points in Ohio.

Meaning, going into the 2026 midterms, Republicans will focus their energy on redistricting in Texas, Ohio and Georgia.

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beckyromero · 36-40, F

The population of the U.S. has been increasingly moving southward so, yes, states in the South and Texas (Texans don't like to be lumped in as part of the South) will be gaining not only Congressional representation after the 2030 Census but more electoral votes as well.

I've mentioned this in the past as to why it is imperative that Democrats do more at the STATE level, because that's where the Congressional maps are created in Republican-controlled states. And it is in Texas and Florida where gerrymandering has most effected the state legislatures with Republican majorities far in excess of voter registration and presidential popular votes in those states.

Democrats needed better candidates at the legislative state level that can compete despite being at a disadvantage in districts favoring Republicans because that's the only way they'll begin to address the imbalance. But the national party feels that's a waste of resources.

CedricH · 22-25, M

@beckyromero Look, Democrats simply need to become much more competitive in red states to win the House, the Senate and the Presidency. Time for a party overhaul.