Why redistricting (gerrymandering) structurally favors Republicans

A) Because they control more unified state governments with majorities in both legislative chambers and the Governorship.

B) Because Republicans control more populous states with narrower margins of victory (Texas (+14), Florida (+13), Ohio (+12), North Carolina (+3), Georgia (+2)), while the Democrats generally control populous states with wider margins of victory. (Maryland (+28), Massachusetts (+25), California (+20), Washington (+18))

C) Because Democrats have maxed out their advantages in populous blue states like California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey and Washington.

In California, the ratio between currently held Democratic and Republican Congressional seats is ~17/83 while the actual electoral balance is closer to ~ 38%/58% that’s a ~23 point distortion. In New York the distortion amounts to ~16 points, ~ 21 points in Washington, ~28 points in Illinois and ~22 points in New Jersey.

Meanwhile, the distortion in populous red states, is generally lower. ~7 points in Georgia, ~9 points in Texas and ~ 11 points in Ohio.

Meaning, going into the 2026 midterms, Republicans will focus their energy on redistricting in Texas, Ohio and Georgia.

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CedricH · 22-25, M

@ElwoodBlues

Take a good look at the green Democratic-controlled states.
CT (5/5 House seats are held by Democrats), (MA (9/9 Dem), RI (2/2 Dem), WA (8/10 Dem), NJ (9/12 Dem) NY (19/26)

Or the yellow Democratic controlled states ME (2/2 Dem), MD (7/8 Dem), CA (43/52)

They‘re maxed out, okay? They can’t change the fact that rural East California is conservative or that rural upstate New York is conservative. They have to put those voters somewhere and they are already in as few districts as possible.

There‘s not one toss-up for the Democrats in either New York or California at the moment.Republicans, however, are very competitive in CA45 (Orange County) and NY4 (Nassau county).

There are two competitive seats in NY for Democrats. But if they were too infuse them with more Democrats they‘d be forced to shift some of the red population to a swing district that’s competitive for Republicans.
So if Democrats were to move more people from NY16 up north to NY17 (Rep Mike Lawler‘s (R) district), then they‘d have to move some Republicans from NY17 further up north to NY18 which his currently held by a Democrat but only leans Democratic and would turn into a toss up if they pursued that redistricting strategy.

As I‘ve said, the effective congressional representation to vote share is worse for Republicans in New York, New Jersey, Illinois, Washington, Maryland and Massachusetts than it is for Democrats in Texas, Florida, Ohio or Georgia.