Since the end of the Cold War, voters tended to constrain a sitting President‘s power by supporting the opposition in the midterm elections which regularly produced lame duck presidencies after their first two years in office. It happened to Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, Donald Trump and to Joe Biden. George W. Bush, however, won Congressional majorities in 2002. Still, he lost them - as the theory would suggest - in 2006, two years into his second term. And one shouldn’t discount the post-9/11 effect.
Having said that, historically, the post-1992 norm is more of an aberration than a constant. During the civil war and reconstruction era Lincoln (during his first and likely his second term) and Grant (during his first term) were able to rely on solid Republican majorities in Congress. Though, that was in part due to the self-disenfranchisement of the Southern Democrats.
Still, around the turn of the century, both McKinley and Theodore Roosevelt were backed by a Republican Congress for the whole duration of their three terms. Wilson wasn’t immediately rebuffed by the electorate either in 1914. Voters gave him two more years to enact his ambitious, progressive reform agenda.
During the roaring twenties Harding, Coolidge and Hoover were backed by solid and uninterrupted majorities on the Hill for 12 years.
History, then, repeated itself when Franklin D. Roosevelt presided over the US, undisturbed by Republican majorities in either chamber for over 12 years.
Finally, Kennedy, Johnson and Carter didn’t have to contend with a decisive midterm reaction either.
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@MistyCee This post is supposed to caution against reflexive complacency among the Democratic leadership. 35 year old rules may no longer apply and they need to make a strong case against Trump and redefine themselves in a more moderate, inclusive, centrist and popular fashion to be competitive.
Realistically, though, while I could see Trump wanting to dissolve Congress and or cancelling the midterm elections, I don't know how exactly he'd get away with that yet, and it seems more likely he would try and "rig" them, arrest and intimidate voters and voting officials, etc. We'll see.
@CedricH Sounds good to me. You'd think 2016, coupled with Jan 6 pardons and his attacks on lawyers and judges would be enough, but I suppose it may not be.
@MistyCee An informed and educated person who also happens to be committed to the (small l) liberal ideals of the enlightenment would‘ve, indeed, processed all of these developments and would’ve then voted passionately against Trump in 2024. Alas…
