Viktor Orban's Hungary is the model for the Trump/Musk playbook.

@Elessar
Yeah but this hasn't happened yet.

I think that the comparison is pretty apt tbh. The Trump project is moving faster and breaking things but its not clear yet how much they will get away with. That is clear in Hungary.

@Elessar Yeah but to be fair what if he just fuck the EU? What can they honestly do? Sure them? He can just say, nah, not paying. Then what? That's the problem with international organizations. International law it is pretty unenforceable.

@MethDozer The EU des subsidies the Hungarian economy. They could actually do a lot but they don't.

They dis a heck of a loct to Greece after it broke the EE's fiscal rules but harsh words to Hungary when it broke democratic and social rules. Read into that what you will of the EU's priorites.

I agree with your sentiment though. Both Trump and Orban realised that norms and etiquette can be broken. If things are held together by 'this is the normal done thing,' then you can break it apart with a lot more ease than people would think.

@Burnley123 right on.

I looked up the recourses awhile ago. I got they could cut a member off but other than that it just seemed like the punishments relied on more or less a gentleman's agreement. I know they can sue a violating nation but it doesn't seem like there is really much they could do after that if they were to say " nah, not paying that".

@MethDozer Orban effectively gamed the rules and the the adherence others play to them.

The Democrats care about bipartisanship and being seen to be fair. It's just a weakness to be exploited..

I also agree with you that trumpism games the establishment hatred but has even more pro establishment politics. Sigh.

@Burnley123 Yeah for sure. Many people seemed awe struck like they're just clueless, but It actually makes a lot sense from the Dems perspective. Sure the MAGA cult presents a while new level of enemy that's also shared by the left but for them to really have any ability to survive they need to restore that old status quo and past bipartisanship relationship. For them to actually dig into a true attack on the GOP kinda seals their own doom and downfall as well. It's essentially them trying last ditch efforts and a hole at self preservation over a full force and effective attack on the right. Sure they are just at odds with the MAGA cult, in many regards just as much enemies as the left, but at the same time they deep down know they need the GOP to actually survive and have any relivance. So it comes down to these final efforts to redomesticate the pitbull but not actually putting it down. But the dog is rabid, there's not really any chance of that.

@Elessar Excellent comment.

Hungary is of course a small country. It's only international influence is to be an example and a harbinger.

I did vote against Brexit but the EU has lots of problems and vulnerabilities. You outlined well some of the structural problems and it needs to work well together as a block to resist Musk and Trump.

With the far right growing though, I do fear that Europe will eventually end up where America is now.

@Elessar I think the main problem with how the EU treats Hungary is that Orbàn does have a lot of support, or did have, as his party and he were elected versus other parties. Whether he still has much support is a different matter probably very hard to determine.

The voters for such people have broadly similar views to the candidates, so if the government then starts becoming more repressive it probably does not affect these voters much, and they might even welcome the tightening laws if only for keeping their opponents down.

Also, unfortunately, withdrawing subsidies will not hurt Viktor Orbàn but could hurt many other Hungarians. Especially farmers as agriculture is among the main beneficiaries of EU subsidies. This could also go wrong by increasing support for Orbàn, who would likely twist the story to appear an economic attack on them by the EU.

The EU has made its feelings clear but it is very difficult to deal with an elected President of an EU member-state, who then uses his position to manipulate the system and consolidate his own power. In the end it has to be the Hungarians themselves to deal with him... if they are allowed.

At worst, if the EU could so alienate Viktor Orbàn that he turns his country towards Russia and Belorus; the latter ruled by a man at least as brutal as Vladimir Putin. He would not worry about his fellow-Hungarians.

...
Looking at the often bitter arguments for and against DOGE's antics, it does seem Elon Musk is not interested in analysis and accuracy if he can present what he says he finds, in ways that suit his, and his elected line-manager's, purpose.

@Burnley123 I think some of the diificulties now in many European countries are due to the EU, quite opposite to its intentions, by seeming no more than a remote creator of endless, arcane rules and regulations; good or bad. It is also not very democratic, and is very secretive.

It does need massive reform, and if it was stripped right back to a set of relatively simple international trade, security and cultural co-operation treaties, it might work. It might even be liked!

One aspect probably not realised by many people, is that many (but by no means all) EU Directives are transposed from truly international bodies and agreements: the UN, ISO, etc.

.

One thing noticeable on SW is that many Americans seem to confuse the EU and Europe, perhaps because we East of the Atlantic often interchange the names - though we comprehend the context. Some also seem not to undertand "Europe" is not a single country as theirs is.
.

Europe as a whole has one advantage over the USA: its many very different nations have political systems encouraging more than two parties in each.

Despite many states with differing needs and electoral views, the US is a single nation with basically just two parties. Anyone disaffected with both has no real alternative at the polls.

Against that, some multi-party countries' voting systems and parliaments tend to create rather wooly coalitions. That probably works reasonably well most of the time, but may unwittingly encourage fringe or extreme groups if the "centre" appears a consensus satisfying only fairly bland matters.


Totally unlike both; the EU has no political Parties! Its "Parliament" does not seem to debate anything, but it does discuss serious international matters and form a consensus to publish. It also spends considerable time merely nodding through the Commission's Directives with very little understanding and discussion. So its overall political flavour is undefined. It is a very vague average of its national representatives' or their home governments' views.

{I have used the term "debate" by its proper meaning.}


Disillusioned voters could of course simply not vote, by absence or defaced ballot-slip; but abstentions and tricks like so-called "tactical voting" (probably not applicable in the USA) are bad for any democracy.