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Mea culpa – I didn’t think Trump would win the Canada/Mexico trade war just like that . . .

Wow . . . could it have happened any quicker? Just like that, Mexico agrees to armed troops on the Rio Grande, and arrests an untouchable drug kingpin. Canada also promises to stop the flow of fentanyl and human traffickers bringing migrants south.

My go-to handbook for all things economic is usually the Wall Street Journal. The WSJ yesterday predicted defeat or at least surrender by America. I bet their op/ed writers are in a huddle right now. (“Hmmm . . . where did we go wrong? Did we overestimate America’s dependence on Fentanyl, and unvetted drug gang members?”)

In the meantime, Biden as taken a position. He hired CAA (Creative Artists Agency) to help him find someone to ghost write his memoirs. Going to be tough, since Biden can’t seem to remember where he put most of those top-secret papers. I’m not condoning Trump’s theft. But at least he knew where they were.

The Obamas rang Hollywood’s doorbell 30 seconds after leaving the White House too. They started their own agency (“Higher Ground”) with backing from Netflix. Barack and Michelle are represented by Qadriyyah “Q” Shamsid-Deen, someone nobody has ever heard of but is probably well-connected. The Obamas' first Netflix effort was “Leave the World Behind”, a streaming only release where cyber terrorists take down the entire USA. Holy Guacamole, Batman! I expected better from the Obamas. At 2 hours and 20 minutes, Leave the World Behind is ridiculously long. Netflix has been opaque about the production cost and revenues but claims it has been streamed more than 100 million times. “Stranger Things” have happened, of course . . .

Back to Trump’s 6-day trade war. CNN had the best take this morning. Some talking head said the tariff strategy came straight out of “Art of the Deal” (Trump’s own ghost-written book), where adversaries rely on brinkmanship. Whoever flinches first loses. I'm okay with this, as long as nuclear weapons are not involved. Hamas seems to have surrendered too and is disgorging their tortured civilian captives. This is just a strategy to re-arm, however. Expect to see a resumption of hostilities later this year.

Over the next 2 years I think the financial markets have more downside than upside. Not because of Trump, but because of America’s ridiculous $36 trillion national debt. That’s more than the next 10 nations combined. Elon Trump is evidently preparing to end the Department of Education, US Agency for International Development, the Federal Reserve and a wider alphabet soup of high spending, low accountability paper pushers.

That sounds scary. Just like a trade war with Canada and Mexico sounded scary. But I’m reigning in my skepticism. I want to see who blinks next. We may, in fact, see wholesale budget cuts and staff departures at a bunch of federal agencies which simply duplicate state level regulation and activities. At least, I hope that’s what happens.

I’m just sayin’ . . .
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You got played. Actually, Canada & Mexico called tRump's tariff bluff, stock markets went into free-fall, and tRump backed down with NOTHING except tiny face saving concessions.

Mexico's 10,000 troops? Biden won that concession in 2021, now tRump is taking credit😂🤣
https://apnews.com/article/guatemala-honduras-mexico-immigration-border-patrols-917c0fea87c0a807b371da207d34c8cc

Canada agreed to appoint a "fentanyl czar," plus
Trudeau noted that Canada is implementing its $1.3 billion border plan to reinforce the border with new equipment and personnel.

“Nearly 10,000 frontline personnel are and will be working on protecting the border,” Trudeau said.

Notice that "Canada is implementing" phrase?? It's because it was a pre-existing plan from last December!
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-safety-canada/news/2024/12/the-government-of-canadas-border-plan-significant-investments-to-strengthen-border-security-and-our-immigration-system.html

Notice that "are and will be" wording?? That's right, the big "concession" here is that Canada will maintain the same number of border personnel😂🤣
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@DogMan asks
Last December?
Yes, meaning LONG before tRump's tariffs-on-Monday threat. Meaning the his tariffs-on-Monday threat gained NOTHING.

AND. On Monday the DJIA opened 200 points lower than the friday close; then dropped another 400 points in just a few minutes. That was the freefall. Then tRump passed the word that a pause was in the works. Then the DJIA recovered.
https://orgecs.business-standard.com/world-news/s-p-500-dow-nasdaq-futures-fall-as-trump-s-tariffs-stoke-trade-war-fears-125020301057_1.html
DogMan · 61-69, M
@ElwoodBlues LOL, They markets took a dive after Powell said that he would not cut rates.

Did you conveniently forget that?
@DogMan Powell didn't cut rates before "tariff-Monday" and he didn't cut rates after it either. The lack of rate cuts has been constant since last autumn. What hasn't been constant is tRump's tariff threats and withdrawal of same.

BTW, the Fed Jan meeting was on the 28th & 29th; rates announced 2PM EST on Wednesday the 29th. If the market were going to respond to the non-change in rates, it had two full and one partial trading day to respond.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20250129a.htm

Nice try, fed rate announcements happened WELL BEFORE "tariff-Monday."
DogMan · 61-69, M
@ElwoodBlues Don't be afraid, because Republicans will turn on Trump if the stock market
drops much farther. And you can count on the DNC to do whatever than can to keep in
dropping.

I am not worried, my investments have gone down. But it will turn around.

I have around 5,000 shares of Micron. It was going gangbusters until June of 2024
when it dropped like a rock.
@DogMan I'm not afraid, I'm amused by how many people got played by Tяump.

BTW, implicit in your statement is the fact that Biden left Tяump a pretty good economy, such that if Tяump rocks the boat too much the economy will sink. Thanks, Dark Brandon!!

DogMan · 61-69, M
@ElwoodBlues What makes you think the economy was good at the end of Bidens term?

Gas prices? Food prices? home prices? I know what you are going to say, "It could have been
worse" but that is a cop out.

What will you say when prices begin falling? I think I know, you will say "Biden did that" right?
DogMan · 61-69, M
@ElwoodBlues Wall Street investors are cheering former President Trump's return to the White House.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average soared to a record high, closing up more than 1,500 points on Wednesday after Trump won the presidential election over Vice President Kamala Harris.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 each rose by more than 2% on Wednesday to also hit new highs.

Have no fear Elmer, It is still looking good for the next 4 years