Pollsters were wrong. AGAIN. Please explain why.

I can only think of two reasons why a predicted Kamala grand slam instead became a hat trick for Republicans (they now control the white house, senate, and house of representatives).

First possibility : millions of people lied to pollsters.

2nd possibility : those Pollsters lied to us.

Which do you think it was?

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beckyromero · 36-40, FVIP

There seems to be an element of mostly Trump supporters who simply won't respond to polls.

It's not that they lie, it's that they are not responding to begin with and are therefore unrepresented in the polling numbers and pollsters can't seem to get a handle on how to account for what seems to be a new phenomenon since 2016.

Avectoijesuismoi · 36-40

@beckyromero Sometimes it is better that way as it deceives the other side into believing they are in a winning position

beckyromero · 36-40, FVIP

@Avectoijesuismoi

Pollsters can't solve it, but opposition research can - to a certain extent. Such as sifting thru campaign records if they were reported.

A survey of how the precinct itself voted gives clues.

SusanInFlorida · 31-35, F

@beckyromero that makes perfect sense. what's the upside to responding to a poll? do you get a free can of soda?

what's the downside - you get misquoted, and doc'd?

beckyromero · 36-40, FVIP

@SusanInFlorida

I think with more and more people making small contributions, campaigns will be getting better and identifying support

Avectoijesuismoi · 36-40

@beckyromero Political Campaigns and Playing Poker have a great deal in Common sometimes the only way to win
to borrow some words from Spanish Train

But as he spoke, from beneath his cloak
He slipped another ace

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beckyromero · 36-40, FVIP

@SusanInFlorida

We'll have to see what happens in four years. But I don't see much of a political future for her. She should just join some corporate boards and make some money on the speaking circuit.

The next GOP/MAGA nomination will go to DeSantis (or Vance or Don Jr). Haley's next shot at it wouldn't be until 2032 when she'd be 60. If the MAGAs are still in, she's locked out. If the Dems win in 2028 because of what Trump does or doesn't do, she's be running against a Democrat incumbent who will remind voters of how she backed Trump.

SusanInFlorida · 31-35, F

@beckyromero people are already talking up Vance for 2028. premature.

Avectoijesuismoi · 36-40

@SusanInFlorida Built in continuity

beckyromero · 36-40, FVIP

@SusanInFlorida

people are already talking up Vance for 2028. premature.

Premature unless he is running as the incumbent.

SusanInFlorida · 31-35, F

@beckyromero you anticipated one of my upcoming top posts. It's not impossible that trump will have a heart attack, or a stroke. he seems quite agitated much of the time. and he is elderly . . . like 78? if he survives to the end of his term, he will be older than Biden is right now.