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21% interest rates? You can only get this one place on earth.



Photo above - The Russian central bank recently raised interest rates to 21%. The ruble has lost half it's value since 2022.

Wow . . . and I thought WE had it bad when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell raised US interest rates to 5.5%. Everyone thought the world was going to end. Or at least result in an endless buffet of recession and job losses.

So I was astonished to read this morning (link below) that Russia’s central bank has hiked IT’S interest rates to (drumroll). . . 21%. WTH !!!!

So, is Russia going to have a recession? Wait . . . my bad. They’re already in one. Russia’s GDP (Gross domestic product) fell 11% last year. Because . . . war.

Did America ever try to pull a stunt like this – raise Fed rates to the stratosphere as a strategy to finance government shenanigans? Apparently not in our lifetimes (past 30 years). The highest it got prior to Jerome Powell’s mad scientist experiment was 5.25% in 2006. Which immediately triggered the housing crisis, and a recession. In the space of a year Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke realized that he had made a massive mistake, and – literally – dropped the rate back to zero. Because . . . recession.

So, Russia has the worst of both worlds. Recession AND unbelievably high interest rates. How are they doing on inflation? Do you want the official data from Putin, or a real-world assessment? It’s 9% (annualized) at the moment, according to Russian apparatchniks who are paid big rubles to keep track of this stuff. Say, how much IS a ruble worth, anyway? Um, about a penny. That’s half of what it was 2 years ago. So . . . 100% inflation over 2 years? 50% per year, approximately? Someone with a math degree please help me out here.

Anyway, I don’t think I want to accept the official statistics of bureaucrats who drove their currency below a penny.

Long story short, I’m not going to buy 21% bonds issued by the Kremlin, if even those commissars who are being paid in penny-ante rubles tell me my investment will be government insured. I’m not sure who WOULD go for this. China? North Korea? Iran? Anyone who has a vested interest in Putin’s survival, I guess. Not me.

I’m just sayin’ . . .

Russia’s central bank raises key rate to 21% to rein in higher-than-forecast inflation – NBC New York
SunshineGirl · 36-40, F
The highest it got prior to Jerome Powell’s mad scientist experiment was 5.25% in 2006. Which immediately triggered the housing crisis, and a recession.

Cripes, and there was I thinking that the Great Recession was the result of:

* inadequate regulation of financial markets
* irresponsible lending to low income households through subprime mortgages leading to an enormous housing bubble in the USA
* reckless risk taking by global financial institutions
* accumulation of toxic assets by banks

When all along it was the raising of interest rates to a fairly modest level by post-war standards . .
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SusanInFlorida · 31-35, F
@SunshineGirl if you a link stating those were THE MAJOR causes of the housing crisis, please share.

it's pretty clear that lax mortgage standards, zero down loans, variable rate/resets, no income verification etc played a role. but that wasn't due to "lack of regulation". a bipartisan congress encouraged this in order to encourage people to take part in the "ownership society" rather than be perpetual renters.

today we have nearly a million people homeless. but again, not because of "lax financial regulation". it's failure to construct enough affordable housing, and a tidal wave of fentanyl and legal drugs like weed which overwhelm those most susceptible to mind altering substances.
SunshineGirl · 36-40, F
@SusanInFlorida Well, this is quite a good general reference point:

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/great-recession.asp

The crisis in mortgage lending triggered recession and led to an increase in foreclosures. The origin of that crisis lies not in monetary policy but in an overheated market in which lenders were offering 120% mortgages with minimal background checks to people who could not afford the monthly repayments but expected to profit from ever increasing property values. They then repackaged the liabilities with other dodgy debts and sold them on to financial institutions with no direct involvement in housing or understanding of what they were taking on. As liabilities exceeded assets on the balance sheet and banks failed, the whole pack of cards began to fall . .

The raising of interest rates in the mid 2000s - to a level around about the historical post-war average - was an attempt to take the heat out of the housing market, but was clearly surplus to requirement as the whole structure was already rotten to the core. It is certainly not comparable to the recession of the early 1990s when central banks raised rates to around 15%. Subsequent lowering of interest rates to near zero for much of the 2010s has arguably inflated property asset prices at a time of near stagnant economic growth, creating an ever increasing divide between the "haves" and "have nots".

The main way in which politicians are to blame, as I see it, is in allowing housing to become a major asset class through toletation of multiple home ownership, corporate speculation, and foreign interference in property markets. Possibly to disguise lack of economic growth elsewhere, certainly to court popularity among the already wealthy. Housing is for living in, not making unearned profits. A deeply unpopular view, I know, but until regulation is tightened and alligned with social policy the market will remain broken and unfit for purpose.
Domking · 61-69, M
The interest rates are linked to the inflation rates.

If I lend you the money which can buy ten grams of gold, when you repay one year later I would like to be able to buy 10 grams of gold plus a little bit more.
Now, if the currency is losing buying power , if gold is 18% to 20% more costly one year later then the 21% interest rate is obvious.
SusanInFlorida · 31-35, F
@Domking except russia is not currently buying gold. they're purchasing drones from Iran, ammunition for Korea, and who knows what from China. This a war economy, not an investment economy.
whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M
Even with a centralised, controlled economy, sooner or later the economic chickens come home to roost. As much as Putin can print money and smile, Russia has to pay for what it cant produce at world competitive Prices. America needs to learn this before the world enforces the lesson..😷
jackjjackson · 61-69, M
That’s a pretty good list Susan however I think a few things have been accidentally overlooked.

we don't need B21 bombers at $2 billion each and we don't need 11 nuclear powered aircraft carrier task forces with a dozen support ships each. MY COMMENT IS THAT WE DO NEED THE MILITARY EQUIPMENT TO DETER CHINA RUSSIA NORTH KOREA AND IRAN. NOT SURE WHERE YOUR NUMBER COME FROM OR WHAT THE NUMBERS SHOULD BE. I AM SURE WE DO NEED WHAT IS NECESSARY TO DETER THOSE NATIONS THAT HAVE CHOSEN TO THREATEN US.

we don't need 800+ military bases around the globe, in such irrelevant place as Lithuania, Bahrain, and Somalia. we don't even need Guantanamo bay in cuba. AGAIN NOT SURE WHERE YOU GOT YOUR NUMBERS HOWEVER I DO AGREE THEY WE VERY LIKELY HAVE MANY UNNECESSARY ONES AND ALSO ONES THAT ARE TOO LARGE AND EXPENSIVE. RE GITMO. PERSONALLY I DO NOT THE WORST OF THE WORST INTERNATIONAL CRIMINALS TRAITORS AND TERRORISTS ON US SOIL. IN FACT I WISH WE USED A GITMO LIKE PLACE FURTHER AWAY INSTEAD.

we have too many space telescopes, martian robots, satellites, etc. there's still a decade team of people assigned to be caretakers of Voyager, which was launched 50 years ago and is now outside the solar system. ONCE AGAIN. OT SURE OF THE NUMBER AND DETAILS. I DO AGREE THAT THERE ARE ITEMS ON YOUR LIST THAT NEED TO GO. PAYING FOR ANYTHING SOWCE RELATED THET IS 50 YEARS OLD MAKES NO SENSE. WHAT DOES MAKE SENSE IS REASONABLE SOACE EXPLORATION, TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT AND INVESTIGATING THE POSSIBILITY OF SETTLEMENTS SOMEWHERE IN ADDITION TO EARTH. IF SOME OF THR CORRECT THINGS ARE DONE BY THE PRIVATE SECTOR THEY SHOULD BE SUPPORTED. EXPLORATION AND SEEKING KNOWLEDGE SHOULD NEVER STOP. CHINA RUSSIA IRAN AND NORTH KOREA SHOULD NEVER BE PERMITTED TO THREATEN OUR LEADERSHIP IN THIS ARENA.

we give too much money (aid and weapons) to nations which are ruled by kings, generals, presidents for life, crown princes . . . AGREED. NO COUNTRY SHOULD GET A PENNY FROM US THAT IS NOT OUR UNCONDITIONAL ALLY.

we probably should institute private sector style employment rules: fire government employees who are chronic no shows, abusive, sexual harassers, and unproductive. AGREED. WE DEFINITELY SHOULD. THE FEDERAL CIVIL SERVICE IS A DISGRACE AND MUST BE REBUILT FROM THE GROUND UP.

stop rescuing failing banks, detroit automakers, casinos during covid-19 panics, PBS/NPR, airlines, passenger trains, urban bus lines. THIS NEEDS TO BE ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS. PBS AND NOR SHOULD GET ZERO AND REPAY WHAT THEY HAVE GOTTEN. NOTHING TO CASINOS. PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION SHOULD BE SUPPORTED BUT WITH BETTER OVERSIGHT. PRIVATE INDUSTRIES OF ALL TYPES SHOULD SOMETIMES GET LOANS TO OREVENT ECONOMIC DISASTER. THIS HAD TO BE CAREFULLY MONITORED.

take endangered bugs, worms, and single cell organisms off the federal protection list (just kidding, but there really ARE some). FOR STARTERS THAT IN ADDITION THERE ARE TENS OF THOUSANDS OF RIDICULOUS REGULATIONS THAT WERE PUT INTO PLACE FOR POLITICAL PURPOSES ONLY THAT NEED TO BE ERASED.



@SusanInFlorida
SusanInFlorida · 31-35, F
@jackjjackson NATO was created in the 1950s. It has never once fired a shot in defense of europe. Now the biden administration is afraid to authorize NATO use because Putin may launch nukes. Apparently 6 decades of NATO involvement was a farce, if we could always be deterred by a single russian nuclear missile.

I'm not aware that our carrier groups are deterring China from doing anything. They're attempting to occupy Philippine territorial waters (for fishing rights) and China conducts dozens of military overflights above taiwan weekly. China has an ongoing program to hack and test our electric grid, water grid, GPS system, air traffic control system, the pentagon etc.

World War 3 - if it happens - will be a nazi style blitzkrieg. except electronically. America might wake up and find there is no electricity, cell phone service, internet, cable, water, etc. Surrender might happen within one day.
jackjjackson · 61-69, M
I can’t disagree with that. Responsible leadership would have measures in place to protect our electricity, cell phone service, internet, cable, water, etc. while at the same time destroying that of Iran, North Korea, Russia, China and any other country currently posing as a friend that is really the enemy. Look what Israel has been able to do to protect their lives and values with but a fraction of the capability of the US


@SusanInFlorida
Patriot96 · 56-60, C
Sounds likevthe Carter years
Tastyfrzz · 61-69, M
So, thats why the ruble stabilized at 95 to the dollar. It's going to take off again soon i suspect.
SusanInFlorida · 31-35, F
@Tastyfrzz rubles are currenly $0.0102 per dollar. little more than a penny. they haven't been 95 to the dollar in decades
Tastyfrzz · 61-69, M
@SusanInFlorida

Gold to $

 
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