Why Is Trump Spending Money on an Ad Blitz in . . . FLORIDA?

His staffers are coming up with the lame excuse that Trump will be angry at them if he doesn't see his own ads running when he's at Mar-a-Lago.

Really? They think their boss is THAT stupid?

The truth is likely to be closer to this:

Trump got spooked by polls that showed Florida within the margin of error and with Kamala Harris continuing to gain momentum, he's afraid there's an outside chance that Florida could flip in November. And if that happens, it's game over.

On election night, watch Florida. The state does count its ballots fairly quickly. Pennsylvania is slow to count and it will be the urban areas of Philly and Pittsburgh that will come in towards the end.

The longer that the networks take to call Florida, the better the news for Harris. Because if Florida is razor thin, she'll likely win both Georgia and North Carolina (which is less conservative than it was in 2016).

In 2016, AP called...
10:40 pm ET - Hillary - Virginia
10:50 pm ET - Trump - Florida
11:11 pm ET - Trump - North Carolina
11:33 pm ET - Trump - Georgia
12:20 am ET - Hillary - Nevada
01:35 am ET - Trump - Pennsylvania
01:56 am ET - Hillary - Maine (3-1)
02:01 am ET - Trump - Nebraska
02:20 am ET - Trump - Wisconsin
02:20 am ET - Trump - election called
Arizona and Michigan were still too close to call

Due to COVID strong in 2020, one shouldn't compare "call" times with 2016.

In 2012, AP called...
08:28 pm ET - Romney - Georgia
09:02 pm ET - Romney - Nebraska
09:06 pm ET - Obama - Michigan
09:48 pm ET - Obama - Pennsylvania
10:28 pm ET - Obama - Maine (all)
10:36 pm ET - Romney - Arizona
10:44 pm ET - Romney - Nebraska (all)
10:53 pm ET - Romney - North Carolina
11:38 pm ET - Obama - election called
11:47 pm ET - Obama - Wisconsin
11:54 pm ET - Obama - Nevada
00:37 am ET - Obama - Virginia
Florida was still too close to call

LeopoldBloom · M

You are correct. Trump's internal polling must be telling him that Florida's in play. If he starts advertising in Texas, we'll know he's in real trouble. Having to expend resources in Florida takes away from Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and other swing states.

There's more to a campaign than just advertising. A ground game costs money, but that may be the most important factor, as it includes registering new voters and making sure deficient ballots are cured.

beckyromero · 36-40, FVIP

@LeopoldBloom

Trump's 4.9 point lead in latest Texas poll is less than his 5.6 point victory over Biden.

Cruz lead in Senate polls down to 2 points and the GOP purchased an ad blitz this week to try to shore him up.

Having to expend resources in Florida takes away from Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and other swing states.

🙂

And, yes, the ground game will be crucial. And the Harris campaign is getting tens of thousands of volunteers to help GOTV, election monitors, etc.