538 has Harris ahead of trump by 5pts.

@BohoBabe I disagree. For all intents Harris is now the incumbent and is riding a tsunami of popularity right now. trump lost the 2020 by 7mm votes, post jan6 and 34 felony convictions you actually believe he picked up those 7mm and more?
Yes, I know electoral college etc. but Americans are absolutely fed up with trump and all his continuous lies and baggage.

I think the polls are mostly meaningless also. I think Harris is way more ahead.

@Vin53 I believe Harris is in the lead, but that's not enough. She has to get so many votes that she wins in spite of the electoral college, the voter-restriction laws, and the election deniers that will be refusing to count her votes as legit. Also, we already have Elon Musk posting videos that use AI to make it sound like Harris said things she never did.

@BohoBabe All the stupefied maga'ts will buy that bologna but the vast majority of Americans won't fall for that bs.

Biden won by 7mm votes in 2020 and trump has only been hemorrhaging votes since then. Kam is going to win running away.

@Vin53 Fingers crossed. Hopeful....but not overconfident.

@Vin53 True, but after that election, Republicans used the Big Lie as justification to make a lot of new voter-restriction laws.
Yeah, most Americans aren't election deniers, but if the ones working at these stations just throw out votes without getting caught, there's not much we can do. I just hope enough people are able to vote and have their votes counted.

@BohoBabe That would only work if they were able to pull it off in disputed swing states which (hopefully) will be well monitored. Rigging votes by hand is terribly risky and inefficient method of stealing an election.

@Vin53 I hope so. And it's good to enjoy the moment of Harris's surge in popularity. I just want everyone to know what we're up against. Trump will not be easy to beat.

@BohoBabe I'm convinced that most polls are over-weighting "shy Trump voters," who I don't think exist anymore. If anything, there are "shy Harris voters" - Republicans who don't want to admit to a pollster that they plan to vote for her. But even the most inaccurate poll is useful for tracking trends, because as long as the error is the same, it cancels out.

For example, let's say candidate "A" has 40% support, but a pollster incorrectly reports him as having 30% due to an error in their algorithm. A later poll has the candidate at 30%, meaning he's really at 20%. He's experienced a 10% drop even if the raw numbers are wrong.

@LeopoldBloom Yeah, the trend right now gives Harris the advantage, regardless of exact numbers. Really, I'm more worried that even if she wins, she won't win by enough, and the Republicans will be able to steal it.