538 has Harris ahead of trump by 5pts.
538, the Gold Standard of all things polls has Harris ahead by 5pts. Fact. Full stop. Love it or lump it.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
Burnley123 · 41-45, M
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LeopoldBloom · M
@BohoBabe I'm convinced that most polls are over-weighting "shy Trump voters," who I don't think exist anymore. If anything, there are "shy Harris voters" - Republicans who don't want to admit to a pollster that they plan to vote for her. But even the most inaccurate poll is useful for tracking trends, because as long as the error is the same, it cancels out.
For example, let's say candidate "A" has 40% support, but a pollster incorrectly reports him as having 30% due to an error in their algorithm. A later poll has the candidate at 30%, meaning he's really at 20%. He's experienced a 10% drop even if the raw numbers are wrong.
For example, let's say candidate "A" has 40% support, but a pollster incorrectly reports him as having 30% due to an error in their algorithm. A later poll has the candidate at 30%, meaning he's really at 20%. He's experienced a 10% drop even if the raw numbers are wrong.
BohoBabe · M
@LeopoldBloom Yeah, the trend right now gives Harris the advantage, regardless of exact numbers. Really, I'm more worried that even if she wins, she won't win by enough, and the Republicans will be able to steal it.
LeopoldBloom · M
There's a lot of enthusiasm since Biden withdrew. RFK Jr. dropped from 15% to 3%, which may have something to do with Harris' rise, as some of the "double haters" have no reason to not support her, since she's not Biden or Trump. Hopefully the enthusiasm will continue. The Olympics are a distraction but Harris' choice of VP is critical, not so much for what the VP can do, but for what they represent.
Vin53 · M
@LeopoldBloom Why is Shapiro excluded?
JSul3 · 70-79
Polls are not votes.
Allan Lichtman
American historian has predicted Harris will win.
Still not overconfident.
Make sure you are registered.
Vote Blue from top to bottom of the ballot.
Allan Lichtman
American historian has predicted Harris will win.
Still not overconfident.
Make sure you are registered.
Vote Blue from top to bottom of the ballot.
PrincessVelvet · F
Just be careful. He can still lose the majority of the people's vote and come in second place and still take office like he did in 2016.
Majorsite · 61-69, M
At least Kamaltoe can produce a sentence, Unlike Scranton Joe. But they don't make any sense whatsoever !
Majorsite · 61-69, M
Make Me puke !
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trollslayer · 51-55, M
Polls may not ultimately matter, but in the short term they are causing an amusing Trump meltdown!
Majorsite · 61-69, M
I thought Trump was going to destroy democracy, And Who exactly challenged Kamaltoe for the nomination ?
Majorsite · 61-69, M
She should take Pete Bootie juice as VP, Perfect DEI losing ticket !!!
Majorsite · 61-69, M
How does one go from brown to black in a matter of a week ?
Crazywaterspring · 61-69, M
If the Republicans somehow lose they will game the electoral college. If that fails the corrupt AF supreme court will choose the winner like in 2000.
Majorsite · 61-69, M
Yeah, They had the Hildebeast up by about 85%, And Kamaltoe has the IQ of a rock.