Number of homes for sale is down 34%. “Prices are 11% too high”.

Photo above - Arkansas is one of 5 states with the most overvalued homes, according to the link. Ruth wants you to know her home is NOT for sale . . .

Fox isn't' always the most reliable news source (see link below). I only trust half this article. Fox is probably correct when they claim that there are fewer homes on the market now than 2020 (before the pandemic really got rolling). 34% fewer. That's a lot. It's a statistic that's hard to screw up. There's a reliable electronic trail of home listings and settlements. So far, so good.

I'm less certain about Fox's claim that “home prices are 11% too high”. This sounds like an opinion, rather than a statistical analysis. If you believe in supply and demand, and market forces, then the selling price of homes is accurate. Constrained supply of homes for sale. Continued high demand. Claiming that prices are too high may play to renters's fears, though. Anyway, if you buy into Fox's “prices too high” claim, you could end up with price controls. The same way that “burger flippers are paid too low” resulted in a $20 minimum wage.

This is the two-sided coin of populist politics. Both parties can play. Constantly jacking up minimum wages, which leads to higher prices on food, construction. And getting your front door repainted. How much should THAT cost? $100? $300? It depends on how many phone calls to painters you're willing to make, and how much you want to be dissed for even asking.

Back to home prices. Fox echos the 2024 buzzword “golden handcuffs”. People don't want to put their home up for sale, because nobody wants to replace their current 3% mortgage and buy a replacement home at 7%. Plenty of people who ARENT homeowners seem willing to pay 7% though. They're panicked that the 47% price increase in home prices over the past 3 years means they'll be renters forever, if they don't act soon.

There's also concern that America builds only half as many homes each year (including apartments) as the population growth rate. Keeping the Fed Funds rate high is only making that worse. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is constantly appearing on TV, hinting that rate cuts (and prosperity) are just around the corner. Why sign a construction contract if you think mortgage rates will be WAAAY lower, by the end of March, April, May, August, or September? So far Jerome hasn't delivered on his promises. But those promises HAVE driven the DJIA up to 40,000. Rate cuts move money out of CDs, and into stocks. Warren Buffet just used a lot of his cash hoard to buy billions in new stocks. Does he talk to Jerome Powell on his hotline? Hard to say. But if any private citizen could pull this off, it would be Buffet, no?

This writer has made a BUNCH of bad predictions about interest rates and the 2024 campaign. I expected rates to be lower by now, based on Powell's stand up TV monologues. I expected Kamala Harris to be dumped as Biden's running mate, in favor of a candidate who won't give swing voters the willies if Biden takes a turn for the worse. I expected Trump to be in jail.

Nevertheless, I am expecting lower rates, before election day. Biden is apparently behind in 5 out of 6 swing states. And none of the judges and prosecutors want to speed up the Trump trials and put him away. Trump ran an awful campaign in 2016 and 2020. And he is likely to do so again. Keep him in the race, and hope he stumbles?

No - home prices aren't too high, Fox news. Expectations of a brighter future are too high, based on where we are today.

I'm just sayin' . . .

~Homes are overvalued in most of the US – and the problem is worse in these 5 states (msn.com)~