What If Monty's "Operation Market Garden" Had Succeeded?
The ultimate goal of the operation has been deemed by historians as "a bridge too far" and perhaps it really was overly ambitious. But bad luck did play a role and if Market Garden had succeeded in all of its goals, the war in Europe perhaps ends by Christmas 1944, early January 1945 at the latest.
Berlin thus falls to combined American, British and Canadian forces; the Red Army is still fighting its way thru Poland, not having captured Waraw.
The Soviets would have still had an occupation zone in Berlin, but it would have been surrounded by western Allies' occupying forces and not the other way around. (So there's no Berlin Airlift necessary in 1948).
Since there would not have been any formal agreement with respects to the post-war borders of Poland (the Tehran Conference in November 1943 informally set the eastern border roughly along the Curzon Line of 1920 and not ratified until the Potsdam Conference of 1945), Poland emerges post-war with more of its pre-war territory intact. Although the Polish borders would likely have still been moved somewhat westward, the post-war Polish government would be the one that was in exile, not a communist one installed by the Soviets.
Nearly all of pre-war Czechoslovakia would be occupied by the western Allies after Germany's surrender, including Prague, as the Soviets hadn't begun their fighting into present day Slovakia until January 1945.
Perhaps up to one million Jews survive from the Nazi death camps, many of whom would immigrate to the newly formed state of Israel in 1948.
The first successful test of the atomic bomb was still a half a year away. But President Roosevelt is still alive and, with V-E Day having taken place before his 4th inaugural, he might not have been as hasty in negotating for Soviet help in dealing with Japan in February 1945 at Yalta with Germany now already defeated. Roosevelt may well have agreed for the return of South Sakhalin Island, which had been taken from Russia by Japan in the Russo-Japanese War in 1905, to the Soviets, but the cession of Kuril Islands once Japan was defeated might have been too much for Roosevelt's agreement.
WIth all of Germany occupied by the western Allies, the French zone of occupation is surely not going to be carved out of the U.S. and U.K. zones. It will be equal in size to that of the Soviets' zone. French leader General Charles de Gaulle is therefore almost certainly going to be invited to any post-war conference. It probably won't even be at Yalta, given Germany's rapid defeat.
Large numbers of U.S. troops are quickly heading to the Pacific, along with ships and aircraft. The fire-bombing of Tokyo likely happens two months sooner, weather permitting. Likewise, too, with the invasion of Okinawa. Iwo Jima falls in late January. With Germany's defeat, Japan is now suffering from nearly a two-fold intensity in air raids. Shore bombardment by U.S. and Royal Navy battleships happen in February 1945 instead of July and destroy the Japanese governments propaganda claims to its citizens of invicibility. All in all, Japan's precarious position is at a point now in late February or early March 1945 that it didn't actually reach until late July. Moreover, with or without any agreement on Soviet help to defeat Japan, Stalin abrogates the Soviet–Japanese Neutrality Pact and the Red Army in February 1945 launches a massive attack against Japanese positions in Manchuria.
Would it still take two atomic bombs in August 1945 to shock Japanese military leaders to their senses? Or does President Roosevelt's abilities of personal persuasion get Emporer Hirohito to order the militarists to accept the Allies' demands for an unconditional surrender? Would the extra several months Vice President Harry Truman would have had of a world at peace have better prepared him for the presidency?
And if the war does end sooner, does the stress and fatigue of 12+ years in office and leading a nation at war for over three years still cause Roosevelt's fatal massive cerebral haemorrhage (or as some historians now speculate, from melanoma) at age 63 in April 1945? Or does he live a little longer, perhaps to learn of the successful atomic bomb test at Trinty?
Berlin thus falls to combined American, British and Canadian forces; the Red Army is still fighting its way thru Poland, not having captured Waraw.
The Soviets would have still had an occupation zone in Berlin, but it would have been surrounded by western Allies' occupying forces and not the other way around. (So there's no Berlin Airlift necessary in 1948).
Since there would not have been any formal agreement with respects to the post-war borders of Poland (the Tehran Conference in November 1943 informally set the eastern border roughly along the Curzon Line of 1920 and not ratified until the Potsdam Conference of 1945), Poland emerges post-war with more of its pre-war territory intact. Although the Polish borders would likely have still been moved somewhat westward, the post-war Polish government would be the one that was in exile, not a communist one installed by the Soviets.
Nearly all of pre-war Czechoslovakia would be occupied by the western Allies after Germany's surrender, including Prague, as the Soviets hadn't begun their fighting into present day Slovakia until January 1945.
Perhaps up to one million Jews survive from the Nazi death camps, many of whom would immigrate to the newly formed state of Israel in 1948.
The first successful test of the atomic bomb was still a half a year away. But President Roosevelt is still alive and, with V-E Day having taken place before his 4th inaugural, he might not have been as hasty in negotating for Soviet help in dealing with Japan in February 1945 at Yalta with Germany now already defeated. Roosevelt may well have agreed for the return of South Sakhalin Island, which had been taken from Russia by Japan in the Russo-Japanese War in 1905, to the Soviets, but the cession of Kuril Islands once Japan was defeated might have been too much for Roosevelt's agreement.
WIth all of Germany occupied by the western Allies, the French zone of occupation is surely not going to be carved out of the U.S. and U.K. zones. It will be equal in size to that of the Soviets' zone. French leader General Charles de Gaulle is therefore almost certainly going to be invited to any post-war conference. It probably won't even be at Yalta, given Germany's rapid defeat.
Large numbers of U.S. troops are quickly heading to the Pacific, along with ships and aircraft. The fire-bombing of Tokyo likely happens two months sooner, weather permitting. Likewise, too, with the invasion of Okinawa. Iwo Jima falls in late January. With Germany's defeat, Japan is now suffering from nearly a two-fold intensity in air raids. Shore bombardment by U.S. and Royal Navy battleships happen in February 1945 instead of July and destroy the Japanese governments propaganda claims to its citizens of invicibility. All in all, Japan's precarious position is at a point now in late February or early March 1945 that it didn't actually reach until late July. Moreover, with or without any agreement on Soviet help to defeat Japan, Stalin abrogates the Soviet–Japanese Neutrality Pact and the Red Army in February 1945 launches a massive attack against Japanese positions in Manchuria.
Would it still take two atomic bombs in August 1945 to shock Japanese military leaders to their senses? Or does President Roosevelt's abilities of personal persuasion get Emporer Hirohito to order the militarists to accept the Allies' demands for an unconditional surrender? Would the extra several months Vice President Harry Truman would have had of a world at peace have better prepared him for the presidency?
And if the war does end sooner, does the stress and fatigue of 12+ years in office and leading a nation at war for over three years still cause Roosevelt's fatal massive cerebral haemorrhage (or as some historians now speculate, from melanoma) at age 63 in April 1945? Or does he live a little longer, perhaps to learn of the successful atomic bomb test at Trinty?
36-40, FVIP
