I realize it is very unlikely but I'm surprised no one has mentioned the possibility

That the Democratic Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries could be elected Speaker of the House? McCarthy is said to be five votes short of a majority. Jeffries is only six votes short of a majority. IF everyone casts a vote. In these partisan times it is unlikely that Representatives are going to cross party lines to vote for the other, but what if enough Republicans are sufficiently turned off by the choice between the Never Kevin MAGA candidate and the ever-waffling, how can I buy your vote Kevin and simply votes present. It is a majority of those voting for a candidate by name, so each "present" vote (essentially abstaining) REDUCES the majority required, and if those voting "present" are Republicans McCarthy is counting on, the number of votes McCarthy has locked up shrinks at the same Jeffries shortfall from a majority vote shrinks as well.

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justanothername · 51-55, M

I’m guessing that either way it won’t be an overwhelming majority lead of the house by either party?

windinhishair · 61-69, M

@justanothername Right now it is 222-213 for the Republicans, meaning that a majority is 218. So five Republicans can hold any potential speaker hostage.

dancingtongue · 80-89, M

@windinhishair @justanothername Actually is 222-212 with one seat vacant. A Democrat from VA died and won't be replaced until a special February election.

windinhishair · 61-69, M

@dancingtongue Though he is in a Democratic district and will be replaced by a Democrat. In the interim, it won't impact the number of votes needed for speaker.

dancingtongue · 80-89, M

@windinhishair It will, because only a majority of those voting for candidates by name -- not a majority of total seats in the House -- is required.

windinhishair · 61-69, M

@dancingtongue With one Democrat out, there will be 434 representatives, so a majority will still be 218. 217 would be a tie and that won't elect a speaker.

dancingtongue · 80-89, M

@windinhishair You're right.