Voter Fraud

@marke says [quote] Democrats either refuse to believe voter fraud is real or they refuse to admit voter fraud is real. [/quote] That is [big]FALSE!!![/big]

I'm putting my conclusions up top because I don't trust you to read all the way thru. My numbers are all substantiated by references below.

Conservatives' solution to illegal in-person voting disenfranchises 300 to 16000 valid legal voters for every illegal voter it prevents. That is UNCONSCIONABLE as well as UNCONSTITUTIONAL. You are in a MORAL PANIC over trivial amounts of illegal voting. You only get away with it because the crime of disenfranchising a voter carries no penalty.

You are welcome to address the minuscule problem of illegal in person voting, but NOT AT THAT COST!!! No wonder you are suspected of ulterior motives!!!

Voter fraud has been studied widely, and results published in peer reviewed journals. Democrats don't say it doesn't exist, they say in person illegal voting is [i]minimal[/i] and that your proposed solutions are [i]far worse[/i] than the problem. Now do me the courtesy of actually reading what I post so that I don't have to repeat it to you bit by bit.

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Take, for example, [u]this[/u] study of double voting in the 2012 election. Researchers from Stanford, Harvard and Yale universities investigated how often a person with the same first name, last name and birthdate voted in more than one location. The authors used a model to estimate how many people in the U.S. are share the same name and birthdate. They used that model to estimate how many people in the U.S. have voted twice in the same election. Assuming there were no errors in voter registration records, their analysis found that at most 0.02 percent of the votes cast in 2012 were double votes. But they noted that many, if not all, of these apparent double votes could be a result of measurement error in their model. They also found that a cross-checking strategy designed to purge duplicate voters would eliminate 300 legitimate registrations (where two distinct people had the same name and birthdate) for every registration used to cast a double vote.
*[b]https://5harad.com/papers/1p1v.pdf[/b]

A [u]separate systematic review[/u] by a political science professor at Brennan Center for Justice at New York University School of Law meticulously investigated voter fraud. (It is important to note that he defines voter fraud as a voter casting a ballot even though he or she is ineligible. This is different from accidental errors by voters or election officials or intentional misconduct by an election official or candidate.)
[b]https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/truth-about-voter-fraud[/b]

The review looks at specific allegations of voter fraud – typically identified in newspaper stories – and then follows up to find out if there were actual instances of fraud. In the all of the cases, the author finds the fraud is much smaller than originally believed or the result of a clerical or technical error. For example, in 2005, a Michigan newspaper article announced that 132 votes were alleged to have been cast by deceased voters because election officials did not properly match death records and voting lists. The Michigan Secretary of State launched an investigation and found that the “dead voters” actually used absentee ballots. Of the 132 problematic votes, 97 of the ballots were never cast and 27 people voted by absentee ballot before they passed away. Assuming the remaining 8 ballots were actual fraud (which the investigation was not able to prove) indicates that 0.0027 percent of votes in this specific election were fraudulent – not enough to make a difference in the result.

In a [u]related column[/u] published in the Washington Post, this same author lists every instance of alleged voter fraud that he is able to find across the country and follows up to find out if there were actual fraudulent votes cast. Between 2000 and 2014, he found 31 instances of voter fraud in total the U.S. in any election – general, primary, special or municipal elections. Over that same period, in general and primary elections alone, U.S. voters cast more than 1 billion votes – leading to a minuscule rate of voter fraud.
[b]https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2014/08/06/a-comprehensive-investigation-of-voter-impersonation-finds-31-credible-incidents-out-of-one-billion-ballots-cast/[/b]
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[b]https://evidencebasedliving.human.cornell.edu/2020/10/21/what-research-tells-us-about-voter-fraud/[/b]

Lemme highlight a few points for you:
[b] (1) They also found that a cross-checking strategy designed to purge duplicate voters would eliminate 300 legitimate registrations (where two distinct people had the same name and birthdate) for every registration used to cast a double vote.[/b]
Got that? The naive purging strategy purged 300 valid legal voters for every cheater. I ask you honestly, is that worth the price? Is it worth it to strip 300 citizens of their right to vote for every cheater you catch???

[b](2) Assuming the remaining 8 ballots were actual fraud (which the investigation was not able to prove) indicates that 0.0027 percent of votes in this specific election were fraudulent – not enough to make a difference in the result.[/b] Got that? Eight unaccounted-for ballots in the whole state of Michigan. On recounts, we usually see that many errors PER COUNTY!! In other words, it's a level of discrepancy that you cons never worry - about except when you're in your MORAL PANIC about alleged illegal votes!!

[b](3) Between 2000 and 2014, he found 31 instances of convicted voter fraud in total the U.S. in any election – general, primary, special or municipal elections. Over that same period, in general and primary elections alone, U.S. voters cast more than 1 billion votes[/b] Got that? 31 instances of in person illegal voting out of 1 billion votes cast. Can you do that percentage?? Again, it's far smaller than typical counting error. You guys are in a MORAL PANIC about 0.0000031 PERCENT of the vote!!!

Let's assume that for every cheater caught, 20 get away with illegal voting - so 620 illegal votes in that period. Wow, that raises the fraction to 0.000061 PERCENT of the vote!!!

And the voter ID solutions implemented block 1% to 2% of valid legal voters!! (Brennan center.) You guys would disenfranchise TEN MILLION VOTERS to catch 620!! That's SIXTEEN THOUSAND legal voters disenfranchised for every illegal voter blocked. By any measure, that's INSANITY.

Voter fraud does occur. But in person voter fraud - the kind you are in a MORAL PANIC about - is extremely rare; a handful every election. And your proposed solutions block MILLIONS of valid voters per election. So how crazy is it to have the suspician that your real intent is to block valid voters - such as the working poor - and the handful of illegal in person votes per election is just an EXCUSE??