New poll Dems take the lead

New Economist/YouGov poll has Dems +4 in the generic congressional ballot, a 5-point swing in their favor over the last week. GOP lead in RCP Average shrinks to +1.9

Broken down by gender the GOP holds a 48/40% edge with male voters, while the Democrats lead among female voters 52/35%.
Democrats also hold an edge on voters 18 to 44, but the GOP takes a lead among 44 and older, making clear that turn out will considerably impact the outcome. The poll of 1,500 Americans carried a 3.2% margin of error.

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LeopoldBloom · M

Michael Moore is predicting a blue tsunami. You can dismiss him as a partisan, but he did predict Trump's win in 2016.

Ryderbike

@LeopoldBloom Why would I dismiss him? I hope he’s right.

hunkalove · 61-69, M

@LeopoldBloom I saw that. He also predicted Trump would be reelected.

Ryderbike

@hunkalove no he didn’t ..not at all

hunkalove · 61-69, M

@Ryderbike Yes, he did. I remember it well.

Ryderbike

@hunkalove your memory has failed you. In 2020 Michael moore predicted trump would mess with the election,

And voila ..he was right again

LeopoldBloom · M

@hunkalove He said there was a risk that Trump would win in 2020.

[c=003BB2]https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/29/michael-moore-donald-trump-repeat-2016-warning[/c]

Trump almost won. Biden beat him by 7 million votes total, but because of our obsolete, slave-era Electoral College, Biden only won by 44,000 votes in six states. If those had gone the other way, Trump would have won.

Ryderbike

@LeopoldBloom I am certain Michael Moore considered the electoral college when he made his prediction. Furthermore if it wasn’t for the electoral college there would never be another Republican elected and rightly so.

LeopoldBloom · M

@Ryderbike The Electoral College makes elections far closer than they need to be. If we had a national popular vote, it would have been obvious that Biden won a few hours after the polls closed, and the "stolen election" narrative wouldn't have gained any traction. But because elections are so close and results depend on individual state outcomes, they're much harder to predict unless they're a complete blowout.