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'A budget that harms everyone except the rich.'

For fellow Brits, or those just interested: here is a deep dive into the economic consequences of the Conservative tax cuts from Oxford economist Simon Wren-Lewis. The TLDR is that the new budget won't produce a growth boom and therefore won't offset either the inflation (cost of living) crisis or the devaluation of the pound. Wren-Lewis also predicts that this will inevitably lead to further cuts in our already teetering public services.

This is grim reading. I want this to be wrong but I know that it's not:

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2022/09/a-budget-that-harms-everyone-except.html
PSuss1 · 56-60, M Best Comment
Reprehensible budget, won't achieve it's stated aims in any way, shape or form and the markets see that, as does the IMF. Definitely worse to come with this clown car of a Government. The markets had priced in some level of lunacy last Friday, a lot of the panic was caused by KamiKwasi's throwaway comment about further (uncosted) tax cuts, and by implication massive cuts in public spending, to come ...incompetence, inexperience and arrogance is one hell of a combination 🤦‍♂️
Burnley123 · 41-45, M
@MartinII The presentation is poor but then bluster can only hide so much. We've been through a long period of austerity following 2010 which has left councils and the NHS desperately underfunded .

Of course everyone can point to a few individual spending decisions that they disagree with. The cost of low traffic schemes and overseas aid is dawrfed by this mega tax cut.

Market investors are savvy because they have jobs and reputation in the line so they have to be. It comes down to the fact that they don't believe that Kwateng's plans are credible or plausible. Since I posted this, the BoE has had to spend big sums buying govt bonds just to prevent a total collapse in value. Such a huge rupture can't be just put down to bad PR alone.

This is not a left critique. The left critique says that these plans are immoral. The markets sat that they are highly impractical. Both critiques are completely correct.
MartinII · 70-79, M
@Burnley123 I certainly agree that it’s not just a question of presentation. But the lack of sensible presentation reinforces the substantive objections. Many people, not only on the left, regard the policies as immoral because they seem to benefit the rich at a time of recession and inflation. Of course their purpose is not to benefit the rich for themselves but to benefit everyone by enabling the rich, and business, to stimulate growth. But that argument hardly gets a hearing, and as you say few people believe it is plausible.

What has certainly changed is the political weather. For the time being at least almost everyone, Tories included, regard voting Labour as a safer option than voting Tory - note how support for the Libdems has collapsed in this week’s polls. As a betting man I would have a few quid at a good price on Truss being fatally wounded at next week’s conference. Not likely but not completely inconceivable.
Burnley123 · 41-45, M
@MartinII I appreciate the honest analysis.

Crazywaterspring · 61-69, M
Welcome to neoliberal economics. Tax cuts only result in bankrupt government budgets and the rich getting much richer.
@Crazywaterspring That and austerity for the working class and poor to pay for the free giveaways to the wealthy.
whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M
I get the why of this..(which doesnt make it right) Brexit was supposed to offer a lot of already very rich people in "The City" a chance to do a lot of trade and finance deals, buying and selling licences and agreements to "smooth the path" of trade. But along came Covid and killed trade and business. So this budget is the consolation prize for all those people to get tax breaks .. And it sucks..So what are you going to do about it Britain???😷
Burnley123 · 41-45, M
@whowasthatmaskedman Its worse than you think. Read the article I linked for more.
whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M
@Burnley123 I get that this budget is awful and the selling of it is the worst thing since "New Labor" Its money they dont have going to places its not needed while those in need suffer and are expected to pay for it later. Its the cows that get milked and the sheep that get shorn. The farmer is the only one who profits..😷
smiler2012 · 56-60
{@burnley123] no real surprise there with the tories . soon as the are out of downing and in opposition the better
MartinII · 70-79, M
Just one economist, and presumably a left-wing one, like most British economists (which is a bit odd, to anyone who knows something about economic history!)
@MartinII and everyone who owns any Pound Sterling.
Burnley123 · 41-45, M
@MartinII He's centre left.

It's not just his opinion, it's the markets. They are not left wing but are betting against Truss!
MartinII · 70-79, M
@Burnley123 Yes, and part of the problem is the government’s total failure to explain its policies properly (see my separate comment below). Perhaps they don’t have an explanation!
How close to the edge do you think the average person is at right now? Do you think this could lead to a repeat of the riots a few years ago?
Burnley123 · 41-45, M
@PicturesOfABetterTomorrow A lot of people are close to the edge anyway because of the cost of living crisis. Inflation is an issue everywhere but we have it much worse than any other G7 country. A combination between Brexit, Covid and lack of energy independence is hitting us hard.

Yes, I would say that riots are likely.
@Burnley123 Sadly from what I have been able to glean on my own that is no surprise. I have been reading for a little while now that for the same reasons Northern Ireland could be a powder keg too if the incompetence at the top continues.
Barny52 · 56-60, M
The economy needs money spending to make it go round ! The few that got more won’t do that , if the many less well off got more they would spend. Things are going down hill fast I still blame Farage for starting all this !!
supersnipe · 61-69, M

Bought this today...
Burnley123 · 41-45, M
@supersnipe That's a brilliant cover. Thanks for sharing.

It tells you something when even the intelligent centre-right publications are lambasting them.
supersnipe · 61-69, M
@Burnley123 I quote from their editorial page:

In its first weeks, the new government has shredded its own reputation, unleashed higher inflation, forced emergency action from the central bank, and made growth harder. Just imagine what it can do in a month or two.
Northwest · M
Here's a shorter piece from Tuesday's Washington Post

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/09/26/britain-economic-crisis-early-lesson/
Burnley123 · 41-45, M
@Northwest Thanks for sharing. I'll read it now.
Northwest · M
@Burnley123 The British currency is in freefall. But I guess Truss is doing something about it, or at least something to reassure the world that dropping the top tax rate, will tame inflation. Either that or asking to borrow a magic wand from JK Rowling.
Burnley123 · 41-45, M
@Northwest Rowling
Havesomefun2 · 56-60, M
Not seen it because it’s always depressing
Burnley123 · 41-45, M
@Havesomefun2 Fair enough. It is what it is.
Havesomefun2 · 56-60, M
@Burnley123 at the moment I live of the state because of health problems but iam so ducking board
That's the EU and the USA, too.
@Burnley123 didn't know. So all cities i in the uk are full of the tents from homeless workers. Just like in the USA and the lifespare under 70 years, covid rages and the hospitals are all failing. People bullying the mask wearers. Sorry! Not one upping you. Your lives matter. Ours are nothing. We are the cast offs if former hateful eu and uk centuries.
Burnley123 · 41-45, M
@Roundandroundwego I'm talking about govt competence.

Brits have more debts than Americans or EU citizens. Our inflation is substantially worse than either and we have much less revenue than the USA per capita.

Homelessness is likely to skyrocket because of our govts kamikaze policies.
@Burnley123 we're kinda aware here, but we've lived in a sick, overworked state killing the ecosystem, surrounded by poison herbicides used on every road, with anti intellectual gun toting bullies setting the tone sinc 1970 and people in the UK certainly don't know or care and didn't say anything. Same for European people. People in the USA can't think.
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Burnley123 · 41-45, M
@SW-User I didn't. It's the Austrian school who most influence his thinking though!
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