My take from what I saw and read both before and during the protests, is that a lot of people were already greatly pissed at the (federal) govt. because of the questionable handling of the pandemic, and specifically the public controversial declarations of the POTUS on the matter - Floyd's episode was just the straw that broke the camel's back. All the rest, from Soros involvement to domestic socialists (then became marxists) are just conspiracies - at least until hard evidence is presented, so far there's none - to try to justify what is the consequence of poor management and lack of cohesion between the two parties.
When George Floyd was killed, the covid-19 curve was already flattening. But with the death of Floyd, you have to question if the Leftist US Central Committee saw an opportunity to propel the virus to new heights via "protest" gatherings. Looking at the sudden upward turn of infections, just a few weeks of when the uprising started sweeping across America, it sure looks like a planned and organized effort to not only wreck major US cities but to propel covid-19 to greater heights.
There are multiple interpretations of what the BLM protests/riots accomplished. One thing it didn't accomplish was to encourage anyone other than drug dealers and crooks to move to places like Chicago, Baltimore, Detroit, St Louis, Washington DC, Seattle, Portland, Oakland, San Francisco ... and another dozen+ big US cities run by Democrats. What it didn't accomplish was to give employers good reasons to move to places like Chicago, Baltimore, Detroit, St Louis, Washington DC, Seattle, Portland, Oakland, San Francisco ... and another dozen+ big US cities run by Democrats. Makes one wonder if the Leftist US Central Committee's vision of all those cities is something that resembles Havana or Caracus.
@Heartlander The curve was never flattening over there, look at the curves of other countries that responded to the emergency properly and draw a comparison yourself (as you can see, the flattening began long before May 26th elsewhere).
The baseline situation *before* the beginning of the protests involved a significant number of people forming crowds to protest against the few regional containment measures put in place by some states, going as far as blocking ambulances (*1), or rioting and even storming in state govt buildings while armed to the teeth (*2), to "own the libs". There have been no attempts to lower the tension and reconcile the two sides addressing these morons (rather, the POTUS himself potentially inflamed the situation even more, *3). The same POTUS that went from initially implying the virus is a political hoax, to blaming China for misreporting their numbers (but wasn't it a hoax? or nothing more than a flu?) to then proposing injections of "disinfectants" (bleach?) and UV radiation in sick people, or pushing drugs with potential side-effects like hydroxychloroquine as "the cure" - against all experimental (in-vivo) and clinical evidence. So no, don't tell me the situation was "under control" before the protests, or that it was the left to start protests, and that they haven't found a fertile ground in an already highly-tense political climate.
Play stupid games, win stupid prizes. All the rest is conspiracy, at least until there'll be a serious investigation from a politically neutral party/agency proving or disproving that it was more than just people getting (rightfully) pissed at the central govt. So far, with the verifiable elements we have, it's safe to assume it's simply a case of poor management, demonstrated incompetency and lack of cohesion between parties that escalated nationwide.
A peek at the Minnesota and Georgia infections curves seem to support my suspicions and comments. Floyd died on May 25th. See how the infection rates ballooned 10 days+ afterwards.
By early May, most regions of the country had worked out which jurisdictions would take the lead in helping the people handle the epidemic. CDC has little to do with public health beyond its advisory role. Public health pretty much follows the education model where state, county and municipalities pass infection control and health related laws, enforce those laws, and inform and educate their people. With covid-19, from state to state, and within each state, the "who takes the lead" decision, and coordination had to be worked out, much like with a natural disaster such as a hurricane. In states that saw the initial infection surges, such coordination had been worked out by early April and by early May the states with minimal infection impacts had worked out their coordination and enacting their plans.
When looking at the regional curves, there were bumps following large, close person-to-person gatherings, such spring breaks, Mardi Gras, and .... yes, all those "protest" demonstrations.
By early May, practically every authority was cautioning their charges about the need for social distancing, the need to wear masks and not congregation. They were warning their people of the risks of failing to follow these advisories. Every authority except ... the organizers of the BLM "protests".
@Elessar First of all thank you for replying politely, and I apologize in case my reply sounded harsh/rude, in particular the "play stupid games, win stupid prizes" line which wasn't directed at you personally, of course. So, as you can see from both mine and your charts there was never a "flattening" of the primary curve. Notice that mine reports total cases / population, whereas yours report new daily cases, which is sort of like the derivative function of the former. If we decide to both use this second type of curve, what is referred to as "flattening" in the former should look like an actual decrease in the latter, which isn't present in none of the American curves posted above (except for the Minnesota one but only after June). Here it is for the same three countries I posted before (after March: U.S. steady growth, Italy and Germany decreasing growth):
I'm not saying that the protests couldn't have influenced the curve (both the anti-lockdown ones that came earlier, and the BLM ones then most likely did), or even discussing whether the pandemic response should or could have been coordinated directly by the federal executive (even if, I think, it's a weakness of the entire system if exceptional and potentially catastrophic events like a pandemic cannot be handled centrally - but let's not digress). What I'm saying is that the POTUS and the respective party could have perfectly avoided pushing continuously anti-scientific denialist positions, specifically as I said before: minimizing the severity of the situation, encouraging/defending armed rioters who stormed into a state govt. building to oppose the regional lockdown (even claiming they were "fine people" when some of these actually blocked ambulances), claiming the virus would've disappeared on its own "in April", claimed there was a cure (HCQ/CQP), suggesting sick people could be treated with injections of disinfectants and UV light, pushing for early reopening *amid the peak*, etc.
I have friends living in the U.S., and I've seen plenty of video evidence of what was going on, both before and after the Floyd murder, and there is a stark difference in how the entire population perceived the coronavirus treat over here and how a statistically significant portion of it (mostly if not solely the pro-Trump electorate) did over there. Roads were empty for months here - people followed guidelines with a surgical precision, no matter their political color; whereas from there I've seen were videos of full malls as soon as they reopened, as if nothing was happening; few or even zero masks in crowds, entitled people literally yelling or even spitting on people (!) because they didn't want to put up one when prompted to by shop owners/personnel, the "covidiots" riots I covered before, just to name a few. Would this all have happened if the GOP and the POTUS didn't push an anti-scientific stance for *months* before the Floyd murder? Because this is the question that a lot of people I've talked with are asking, and which made/makes their blood boil, to the point that - at least in my opinion - a single spark was all what it took to ignite all what came after.
:) I think you have to look at both your graphs and my graphs more closely. They all show a definitive turn upwards following the beginnings of the protests. The 14 day moving Minnesota average shows it coming down quite fast and then sharply turning up.
Distorting all the graphs is that they don't account for the expansion of testing. Apparently, also, there is no widespread testing for antibodies, so lacking in all graphs is an accounting for those who may have been infected, showed little or no symptoms, self cured and went on their happy way without making even a blip with the statisticians.
It's not too much of a stretch to assume these were probably mostly young and otherwise healthy people.
We do know that the majority of those who were seriously infected, many of whom died, were seniors or compromised, and disproportionately Black seniors. So follow the likelihood that young and healthy people participated in the protest and riots and passed the virus around, never themselves feeling sick enough to see a health provider, or never feel sick at all. And ... between protests visited their grandparents, older aunts, uncles etc. and spread the virus. It's how all viruses and infections spread, healthy, unaffected carriers carry the virus/germs to those who lack the ability to fend it off.
Looking at how many older nursing facility residents were infected and died, and the similar pattern across all of America and it's not unreasonable to believe that family and staff were most likely the carriers. Did that happened with the protests? If it happened with Spring break, with Mardi Gras .... probably so.
To comparing the US with Europe's experiences should take into account the travel/vacation habits of Europeans and personal habits. Europe caught the virus before the Summer holiday rush and effectively cancelled the summer rush to "Holiday", leaving each country pretty much self contained to fight the virus. And since Europeans are a bit more touchy-feely than we Americans are, it hit there much harder (Europeans cheek-kiss even casual friends. Do that in the US and you might get arrested :) )
@Heartlander Yes, as I said I'm not digressing on what happened *after* the protests, I'm actually on your side on saying they probably contributed the next upraise of new cases. The point I'm trying to make with my intervention is that a lot of people were pissed *before* the Floyd case (specifically March-May), since Trump/reps failed in every possible way to communicate the severity of the situation - from not addressing denialists, to reporting anti-scientific misinformation.
About the tests: the U.S. unfortunately doesn't seem to publish as many data as other countries (or I couldn't find them?). Not only the number of tests (total and per state) and the number of different individuals tested (as the same person will typically get at least 2 or 3 tests, or even more if s/he's slow to negativize), but also and most importantly the ratio of asymptomatic, mild, hospitalized/severe cases and the total number of cases in ICU.
Regarding the comparison with Europe, yeah, we're more compartmentalized since we're still at least at the moment a set of more-or-less united countries as opposed to states of a federation, but in the end the borders between European countries have been reopened (and in fact I fear we're getting in a second wave also because of that, reopening schools next month will probably give us the killing blow).
But scenes like the one in the video you linked are not seen here where I live since January/February, especially in the period from March to May/June. To give you an idea of the situation during the peak of our first wave: [media=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hg30-g01C6s]
