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My prediction for Brexit:

We are heading for either something like May's deal or a no-deal. The opposition forces in Parliament don't have enough MPs and the Tory 'rebel remainers' never actually do any rebelling. May is winding the clock down to the deadline so that MPs will be left with a choice between her deal and no deal. Labour doesn't like her deal but will be blackmailed into abstaining because they can't in good conscience allow for a no-deal Brexit.

So we will end up with a crappy Brexit deal that nobody will be happy with. After that, I am predicting an ugly civil war in both major parties with the Tory right moving to depose May and the Labour right blaming Corbyn for a Brexit he couldn't have stopped and perhaps (if they have the balls) trying to form the oft-mooted breakaway party.

I want none of this to happen but it's all plausible.
Ironicman · 56-60, M
My gut reaction tells me we are heading for a no deal exit. That's not my desire but I think its the way it will go.
Ironicman · 56-60, M
@Burnley123 you summed it up months ago; weve shot ourselves in the foot and there's a no win situation whichever way it goes. It's damage limitation now. It's going to the wire.
thatscottishguy · 26-30, M
@Burnley123 Well it's obvious that's what they have to keep doing if we're going to try again.
Burnley123 · 41-45, M
@Ironicman [youtube=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NqKEkWGhM9A]
CountScrofula · 41-45, M
A split in labour between the socialists and neoliberals will be interesting to see considering how that tension exists in many different countries.
Burnley123 · 41-45, M
@CountScrofula You can find it interesting but I'll find it stressful LOL. It'll be a return to the tension and division we saw during the 2016 coup and leadership contest. These have never gone away but were bubbling under the surface because of the good 2017 election result. Most Labour MPs would still get rid of Corbyn and Momentum if they could do it easily. They can't do it easily because of what happened last time.

[quote]A split in labour between the socialists and neoliberals[/quote]

The Labour divisions are actually a lot more complicated than that. In rudimentary terms, there are kind of four levels of Labour MP on the left/right spectrum. There is the hard-left (inc Corbyn), the soft left, the old Labour right and the Blairites. Only the hard-left are what you would consider socialist and the MPs in the middle are social democrats (in theory if not always in practice). The truth is more nuanced than that but this works to help you understand.

It's only the Blairites who are talking about splitting. The middle Labour MP's have 'mixed' feelings about Corbyn but they are Labour loyalists and culturally embedded within the party. Even the old-labour right, who often side with the Blairites consider themselves pro-union and they are 'Labour nationalists'. It's only thirty or so Blairite MPs who are in remain constituencies who are in any danger of splitting. There is history with this and the same thing happened in the 80s. However, it might not happen because a 'centre' (i.e. classical liberal party) would be an awkward marriage of Blairites, Lib Dems and a few Tory remainers. It would also most probably get crushed by our two-party electoral system. It would damage the Labour vote though and make it more likely that a Brexity Tory party wins an election. That is what happened in 1983 and it gave Thatcher a huge majority. It would be nice to have them out of the party though.
SW-User
I was watching Sky News coverage of all the votes last week, as it was the only English language channel in the hotel. The highlight of the whole Brexit fiasco for me was Sky reporter Beth Rigby calling Boris deluded to his face, and then going on to talk about May riding off to Brussels on her Unicorn.
Burnley123 · 41-45, M
@SW-User Some of us hard lefties actually think that Sky News is more neutral and reasonable than the BBC.
SW-User
@Burnley123 To be hones I rarely watch Sky News. I've found over the years that both parties accuse the BBC of bias for the other party. It's got it's faults but I think it's generally ok.
Burnley123 · 41-45, M
@SW-User I think we'll have to agree to disagree on that.
monte3 · 70-79, M
Would this breakaway from Labor’s left draw from The Conserative left/sane wing?
Does the Liberal Party exist anymore?
Burnley123 · 41-45, M
@monte3 It possibly would and its known they've had meetings to discuss it. If it does happen, then it will get only a few Tory MPs. The Lib Dems do still exist but they only have eight MPs because they are still (quite rightly) blamed by the electorate for their coalition days with the Tories from 2010-2015.
monte3 · 70-79, M
As a serious question what would a good Brexit deal look like?
Burnley123 · 41-45, M
@monte3 Like a unicorn LOL.

That is kind of a serious answer. IMO there is no Brexit deal that we could possibly get which would retain the benefits of staying in the EU without huge downsides. Unfortunately, a lot of Brexit voters believe in the unicorn and will be angry if (when) they don't get one.
Xuan12 · 31-35, M
@Burnley123 Yeah, if there was a plausible way to have all the benefits and none of the consequences, the UK would have done it a long time ago.
Longleggedlady · 31-35, F
One other option is Parliament rejects what she comes back with, and seizes the power against her and blocks a no deal situation and effectively cancels the whole thing in the interest of the country
Longleggedlady · 31-35, F
And there is a ECJ court ruling that says it can be cancelled by Parliament
Longleggedlady · 31-35, F
Perhaps it is time to reverse another process they chopped off King Charles head once,maybe it is time to take Parliament outside and chop off their heads
Longleggedlady · 31-35, F
@Burnley123 perhaps we can reverse another process, they chopped off King Charles head once, maybe the time has come to take Parliament outside and chop off their heads now. After all it appears that Cromwell and co clearly made a mistake all the way back then.
RodionRomanovitch · 56-60, M
[youtube=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sxqvwkmTNy8]
Burnley123 · 41-45, M
@RodionRomanovitch Brexit does have a very Dad's Army vibe about it. The wartime analogies, the staggering incompetence,
Platinum · M
Art 50 will be extended and she will get a deal with the eu, that will not completely out or in....
Ironicman · 56-60, M
I fear there will be riots if there is an extension and these riots will be extreme. It's not what I want but I feel a vibe in greater London and the suburbs. @Platinum
Platinum · M
[@Ironicman they will say they need a small extension to get Parliment to pass her deal and then to get it passed the eu and then legally passed ...can't see them having enough time....I agree there will be trouble ahead...
thatscottishguy · 26-30, M
Good luck with that.👋
Burnley123 · 41-45, M
@thatscottishguy Good luck with Scrotshit.
Longleggedlady · 31-35, F
@Burnley123 [youtube=https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6GqkZVdnHdM]
Longleggedlady · 31-35, F
@thatscottishguy [youtube=https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6GqkZVdnHdM]
DonaldTrumpet · 70-79, M
U WiLLz Be TrUMPz COLOn sooN
Burnley123 · 41-45, M
@DonaldTrumpet Whenever I hear the words 'Trump' and 'British trade deal' I wonder how much we are gonna get screwed.
DonaldTrumpet · 70-79, M
@Burnley123 U’LL GetZ screWEDz aLritEz
MethDozer · M
[image deleted]
Burnley123 · 41-45, M
@MethDozer

We need a Noel Edmunds referendum.

 
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