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windinhishair · 61-69, M
This is all about politics in the US. I don't dare try to predict what will happen with Brexit.
Trump will continue his shutdown of the government while people suffer. Late in January he'll declare victory and get little or nothing in return. The wall will not be built, though he'll say it is, even though it will just be improving existing fencing.
Mueller will issue his report, which will contain solid evidence of multiple crimes by Trump's kids, and by Trump personally. Several of these crimes will be completely new to the public. The Democrats will impeach him in the House. A few Republican Senators will vote along with all Democrats for removal, but it won't be enough to remove him from office, leaving a proven liar and criminal in the White House.
Trump will pardon his children and other people mentioned in the Mueller report, claiming it is biased and partisan.
Additional charges will be brought against Trump by New York State, setting up a constitutional crisis as to whether a sitting president can be indicted in a State.
Almost nothing will get done administratively by Congress, as Trump will consume almost the entire bandwidth.
More cabinet members and aides will be fired and/or leave the White House in 2019 than in 2018 and 2017. This will pick up significantly after Mueller's report is issued.
Trump will continue his shutdown of the government while people suffer. Late in January he'll declare victory and get little or nothing in return. The wall will not be built, though he'll say it is, even though it will just be improving existing fencing.
Mueller will issue his report, which will contain solid evidence of multiple crimes by Trump's kids, and by Trump personally. Several of these crimes will be completely new to the public. The Democrats will impeach him in the House. A few Republican Senators will vote along with all Democrats for removal, but it won't be enough to remove him from office, leaving a proven liar and criminal in the White House.
Trump will pardon his children and other people mentioned in the Mueller report, claiming it is biased and partisan.
Additional charges will be brought against Trump by New York State, setting up a constitutional crisis as to whether a sitting president can be indicted in a State.
Almost nothing will get done administratively by Congress, as Trump will consume almost the entire bandwidth.
More cabinet members and aides will be fired and/or leave the White House in 2019 than in 2018 and 2017. This will pick up significantly after Mueller's report is issued.
Burnley123 · 41-45, M
@windinhishair Sounds tough about the US stuff. We'll see but I think he will hold out for the term because nothing revealed by Mueller will be bad enough to convince the Republicans to remove him. It might be pretty bad but not that bad.
[quote] I don't dare try to predict what will happen with Brexit.[/quote]
Neither do I
[quote] I don't dare try to predict what will happen with Brexit.[/quote]
Neither do I
SW-User
I could see all that happening with the exception of impeachment. I don’t think Democrats will get anywhere with impeachment knowing that removal by the Senate is a virtual impossibility. I can see the country reaching that precipice but then backing away from the ledge. @windinhishair
windinhishair · 61-69, M
@Burnley123 I believe Mueller's revelations will be so bad that almost all Republicans in any Senate prior to 2012 would have voted for removal. But the bar has been lowered so much for acceptable behavior that current Senate Republicans will for the most part accept severe crimes, including obstruction of justice, money laundering, and coordination with the Russians to influence the 2016 election.
windinhishair · 61-69, M
SW-User
The bar currently rests on the floor. I don’t think it could be any lower than it is for this president. @windinhishair
Burnley123 · 41-45, M
@windinhishair My only contact with US Republicans is on here or through the media but based on that, I imagine you are right. There is literally no scandal that can't be explained away by conspiracy theory and the people on that side who know its bullshit never ever call out their own side on that.
windinhishair · 61-69, M
SW-User
I’m not ruling it out, but I’m not sure if Democrats will want to go down that road if they remember how badly Clinton’s impeachment went for Republicans. If they pursue it, it will be in large part because their base is demanding it. @windinhishair
windinhishair · 61-69, M
@Burnley123 Most Republicans consider Trump a moron, just like Tillerson and other former and current cabinet members do. But they know that if they call Trump out, he'll focus his base on them and ruin their political careers. I keep waiting for people to start putting country ahead of politics and say that the Emperor has no clothes, but I think it is a fool's errand.
windinhishair · 61-69, M
SW-User
As always, Trump is the wildcard. He’s been erratic these first two years, which have been relatively calm by global standards. He’s had the benefit of his party running everything, and there have been no major events to test his leadership. If he unravels under the pressure coming from the House and Mueller or if a significantly cataclysmic event happens, I could see him flying completely off the rails. We may look back at 2017-2018 as the halcyon days of his administration. @windinhishair
windinhishair · 61-69, M
SW-User
Plus, his inexperience and incompetence could actually cause the initial crisis that could then be exacerbated by his inexperience and incompetence. A perfect circle. @windinhishair
windinhishair · 61-69, M
@SW-User It most definitely could occur that way. Just look at the current shutdown--Trump had a deal earlier this year that he spurned which would have gotten him even more than he's asking for now. And that's just a national crisis of limited impact. It could be far worse in a real crisis.