Will a hard-Brexit bring about austerity and huge cuts in services?

I think that it will and also that it is planned. For all that the Leave campaign talked about immigration cuts, taking back control and national sovereignty, that is not their real agenda.

The hard-Brexiteers who are attacking May for her compromise deal want to remake the British economy along the lines of the South East Asian countries. This means lower taxes (for the rich and for corporations), less re-take (meaning safety legislation and worker protections) and a smaller state (meaning less money for schools and hospitals). This is a Brexit which will benefit the rich and upper-middle class at the expense of most of those who voted for Brexit.

This was not what has been sold to the public but it is what the pro-Brexit wing of the Conservative Party want according to their published work:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/13/tory-brexiteers-plan-2019-britain-conservative

If you don't believe me, look at the people involved. When have the right of the Tory Party ever cared about working class people? They've busted unions and imposed austerity cuts whenever they've had the chance. The media who are pro-hard-Brexit include the Murdoch owned Sun, the Express, and the Daily Mail.

So why are they coy about this agenda in public? Its because it would be unpopular with the British people. The public wants more money for the NHS, not less. They think lower taxes for the rich are unfair and want a more equal society. This goes for both Remain and Brexit voters.

However, you can get people to accept this kind of agenda under conditions of an economic crisis and a hard-Brexit would necessarily cause that crisis. Remember how the 2007/08 financial crash was caused by the banking sector and used as an excuse for austerity cuts? Expect the same again, only worse. If the Tory Brexiteers get their way; expect the EU to be blamed and expect cuts in public services and worker protections in the name of taking back control. This is what Naomi Klein talked about in her book 'The Shock Doctrine'. It's about how disaster capitalism takes advantage of a political and economic turbulence to impose its own will on an otherwise unsympathetic population.

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CountScrofula · 41-45, M

Yeah, absolutely - implement austerity and loot the public sector.

What I find kind of interesting about this stuff is this economic nationalism stuff hurts and helps the corporatists. Their power in the world will shrink because free trade allows for free movement of capital - get rid of that and everything becomes more expensive. But their power and wealth relative to the local population will increase.

I don't entirely get why they go in for this because the status quo seemed to be working fine for them.

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@CountScrofula I get it and it's perhaps easier to see in Britain than in Canada, because economic times are harder here for ordinary people. Also, British natioalism is very different.

In the 80s and 90s, neo liberalism wax promoted on its own terms. Against nanny state, aspiration against old notions of class, a dynamic economy etc etc. Sine the 2018 financial crash, that is no longer tenable. You have to make the case through TINA (their is no alternative) or by bait and switch with nationalism.

Its why nationalism happened in 30s Europe too. Its a reponse to political crisis which defeats the left by preying on petite bourgeois insucirity, nationalism and reactionary attitudes.

Obviously Brexit is not fascist ot but its a way of the ruling class to maintain power by blaming different targets and resetting the narrative under conditions of otherwise lost political legitimacy.

CountScrofula · 41-45, M

@Burnley123 Yeah, the 'F' word is more trouble than it's worth engaging in because it's so politically loaded. But there's broad similarity in the forces at work.

But it makes sense - the status quo was not tenable, so take advantage of what you have. The left seems to have its shit together in Britain more than it does in North America, but I guess we'll see where that goes. Not only do I want Corbyn to be PM because his politics can really help, but to provide some hope to the rest of us that there's more to the future than choosing your flavour of robber baron.

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@CountScrofula It feel really weird to be seen as a poster child for the world left. This is Britain ffs. Lol.

My point would be that things can change remarkably quicken. We were actually the problem child until the election.

CountScrofula · 41-45, M

@Burnley123 Hahaha, yeahh. A lot of it comes down to the fact that political dynasties tend to have a 'use by' date, at least in parliamentary systems and it really looks like the Tories have hit theirs. If you have the right people in the wings ready to seize power, you can end up with huge, unlikely political swings because of it. Like what happened in Alberta.

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@CountScrofula Yes. Also in terms of social movements and institutional strength. The left is in a fragile state. Unions are week, prole are compliant and even the Corby manifesto woukd be centrist by Canadian standard. However, the left here is immeasurably stronger than I thought it could be just three years ago.

BTW, the Ndp ate fkd in the next elections ate the not? The alberta right have got united so you seemingly are really up agants it to keep the NDP in office.

CountScrofula · 41-45, M

@Burnley123 I absolutely believe the NDP are fucked.

All of the things that had to happen (oil is back up, the economy is strong, their ideas are working) are in place, and they're still unpopular. The only thing I can hope for is that the Conservative party self-destructs.