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Whatever happens tomorrow

I don't post much on here but I thought this was important.

As everyone knows, tomorrow is election day in the U.S. (although with early voting, millions of people have voted already). Most of the pundits are saying it's "too close to call," as the polls in as many as 8 states are within the margin of error. We're hearing how the pollsters are either over- or under-sampling Trump voters, women telling everyone they're voting for Trump but secretly voting for Harris, young Black men voting Republican, Arab-American and young voters sitting this one out because they don't like either candidate's position on Gaza, and plenty of other predictions. Nate Silver had a recent article about "herding," where he says that pollsters don't want to be outliers, so they conform their results to what everyone else is saying.

Regardless of what happens tomorrow (and if it really is as close as everyone is saying, we may not know the winner for a while), neither candidate will have a mandate as half of the country will hate them. The country will continue to be deeply divided, with the losing side bitterly resentful of everything the other side does. Whichever party controls Congress will have a razor-thin majority, which gives disproportionate power to small groups of legislators.

Of course, I could be wrong and we could end up with a landslide by one side or the other.
Richard65 · M
As William Goldman said, nobody knows anything. So we'll see. I'm English, but obviously the US election has global ramifications, especially in 2024. Trump is insane, but the Dems are overseeing genocide (which Trump would continue to do, if he wins). Whoever wins, I think everyone loses.
Lila15 · 22-25, F
@Richard65 I think the war in Gaza will end if Harris wins, and become much worse if Trump wins. Same for the war in Ukraine. However, that's just a small part of what could happen. Trump has said he will use the military to round up illegal immigrants and deport them without trials. This will cause huge disruptions to the US economy and will have an effect on global trade.
Richard65 · M
@Lila15 I agree mostly, except I'm not sure Harris will end it or if her victory might encourage Netanyahu to negotiate about bringing an end to it. The end of the Gaza conflict means the end of Netanyahu's political career (possibly even his arrest for war crimes, though I'm not holding my breath).
Lila15 · 22-25, F
@Richard65 He knows she's not as supportive as Biden and will definitely wind it down if she wins. As for staying out of jail for his financial crimes, he can probably put that off the same way Trump has put off most of his own trials.

Netanyahu won't be arrested for war crimes any more than Putin or the Hamas leadership will be.
StevetheSleeve · 31-35, M
Yeah, it’s messy af. I’m down to hoping whichever candidate wins their party doesn’t control both houses of Congress
SSDecontrol · 56-60, M
@Lila15

That's the idea! 👍👍👍👍👍
Lila15 · 22-25, F
@SSDecontrol It’s all the Senate is doing right now, except they’re appointing a bunch of left-wing judges.

It hasn’t been reported on much, but even with the Republican “landslide,” a bunch of liberal judges were elected at the state level. This is important because not every case goes to the federal level.
SSDecontrol · 56-60, M
@Lila15 so nobody except liberal judges were voted in. Even though the voters were there to vote for Trump?

Yank yhe other one ' and make it grow
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ViciDraco · 36-40, M
I said it last election, and it's true again. Everything we don't like about this election continues for the next election cycle if the outcome is close. For anything to change, one side has to win a landslide. And then we may not even like the changes that happen in our own side as a result.
swirlie · 31-35, F
@jackjjackson
Well like Trump said, it was an inside job by the deep State.
ViciDraco · 36-40, M
@jackjjackson When Biden won the Trump folks were screaming rigged and stolen. But suddenly when it goes their way other people need evidence?
jackjjackson · 61-69, M
swirlie · 31-35, F
When was the last time a pollster approached you on the street or on your phone or after you had exited a voting station from voting, to ask you how you intended to vote or how you just voted?

For me, I've never been asked by any pollster at Election time, nor have I ever seen a team of pollsters canvasing a polling station at Election time in my entire adult life either!

As far as I'm concerned, the purpose of the pollster concept is to get people up off the couch to get out and vote by influencing what people perceive to be the trending status quo, but apart from that, pollster assessments of the voting trend are total bullsh*t.

I strongly believe that if pollsters who pretend to be canvassing voters ahead of an Election didn't say that Harris and Trump were in a dead tie, then nobody would get off their butts to get out and vote. But as long as one side perceives itself as losing, in particular the Democrats losing to the Trump Party, then pollster influence will get otherwise non-voting Democrats off their butts to vote, just to ensure that Trump isn't Elected POTUS for the sake of the country.
ViciDraco · 36-40, M
@swirlie I was actually called for polls several times ahead of 2020. Not so much this time.
swirlie · 31-35, F
@AbbySvenz
That was a meaningless link you offered. You still cannot prove that any of those polls were actually conducted on a sampling of the population. That's my point.
swirlie · 31-35, F
@ViciDraco
How many other people were called after they called you?
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Gibbon · 70-79, M
@Pfuzylogic Well what does fuzzy logic tell you about the results now LMAO.
Pfuzylogic · M
@Gibbon That you think you are intelligent.
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swirlie · 31-35, F
@jackjjackson
You will be the first among us to know. I will keep it a secret until you have been informed of the news personally by me.
jackjjackson · 61-69, M
I’m sure I can count on you. @swirlie
swirlie · 31-35, F
@jackjjackson
I've got your back. You can count on me.

 
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