Whatever happens tomorrow
I don't post much on here but I thought this was important.
As everyone knows, tomorrow is election day in the U.S. (although with early voting, millions of people have voted already). Most of the pundits are saying it's "too close to call," as the polls in as many as 8 states are within the margin of error. We're hearing how the pollsters are either over- or under-sampling Trump voters, women telling everyone they're voting for Trump but secretly voting for Harris, young Black men voting Republican, Arab-American and young voters sitting this one out because they don't like either candidate's position on Gaza, and plenty of other predictions. Nate Silver had a recent article about "herding," where he says that pollsters don't want to be outliers, so they conform their results to what everyone else is saying.
Regardless of what happens tomorrow (and if it really is as close as everyone is saying, we may not know the winner for a while), neither candidate will have a mandate as half of the country will hate them. The country will continue to be deeply divided, with the losing side bitterly resentful of everything the other side does. Whichever party controls Congress will have a razor-thin majority, which gives disproportionate power to small groups of legislators.
Of course, I could be wrong and we could end up with a landslide by one side or the other.
As everyone knows, tomorrow is election day in the U.S. (although with early voting, millions of people have voted already). Most of the pundits are saying it's "too close to call," as the polls in as many as 8 states are within the margin of error. We're hearing how the pollsters are either over- or under-sampling Trump voters, women telling everyone they're voting for Trump but secretly voting for Harris, young Black men voting Republican, Arab-American and young voters sitting this one out because they don't like either candidate's position on Gaza, and plenty of other predictions. Nate Silver had a recent article about "herding," where he says that pollsters don't want to be outliers, so they conform their results to what everyone else is saying.
Regardless of what happens tomorrow (and if it really is as close as everyone is saying, we may not know the winner for a while), neither candidate will have a mandate as half of the country will hate them. The country will continue to be deeply divided, with the losing side bitterly resentful of everything the other side does. Whichever party controls Congress will have a razor-thin majority, which gives disproportionate power to small groups of legislators.
Of course, I could be wrong and we could end up with a landslide by one side or the other.
