How to Beat Trump
First, I will make the case that Biden should not be the nominee. I was torn on this issue for months, going back and forth depending on which opinion piece I’d read most recently, but I think I’ve finally settled on the conclusion that Biden needs to give up the campaign. What it really all boils down to is, does Biden still have a decent chance of winning? If he does, then the risks of changing nominees probably outweigh the risk of sticking with Biden. If he doesn’t, then the risks of changing nominees don’t matter much.
My assessment is that Biden’s chances right now are maybe not quite hopeless, but they are at least very dire. For months he has consistently trailed Trump in major national polls, on average by about two points. At first glance that might not sound like much, but if instead he were winning by two points that would still not be enough. The electoral college is now heavily tilted (you might say rigged) against Democrats, so their nominee will have to win the popular vote by a comfortable margin to just eke out an electoral college win.
Now you might say there’s time for Biden’s popularity to rebound or point out that Democrats have over performed the polls in recent elections. First, yes, in theory there’s time for Biden to catch up, but he’s equally likely to fall even farther behind and given that both candidates are known quantities it’s unclear what form his potential game changer might take. To the second argument, no, Democrats have over performed expectations set by media hype in recent elections, but they have barely if at all over performed the polls; in fact, the polls have been pretty close to accurate lately.
So what should be done? Ezra Klein made some noise by suggesting in a NYT op ed that Biden drop out, not endorse anyone, and let candidates fight it out in an open convention; the problem with that that I buy is that it risks leading to a lot of infighting on divisive issues that will be off putting to Democrats and potential swing voters alike. Instead, I think Biden should consult Obama and other top Democrats and decide to endorse a ticket that’s unlikely to inspire controversy and has a solid chance of winning. Harris is polling at least as badly as Biden, so it shouldn’t include her; however, to avoid controversy the ticket probably must contain a woman and a person of color. There are probably several viable possibilities, but it seems to me that probably the best one is Gretchen Whitmer for president and Raphael Warnock for VP. An alternative that I also like that I haven’t seen suggested in any of the commentary would be Amy Klobuchar for president and still Warnock for VP, as Klobuchar was one of the final five in the 2020 Democratic primaries and polled well in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Most Americans don’t like Trump and don’t really want him to be president again, but they think he’s competent and not especially dangerous. They think Biden is incompetent, which they attribute to his advanced age. Both are very weak candidates. Trump is weak enough that he’s giving Biden supporters the illusion that Biden has a chance to beat him, because if Republicans nominated even an average-strength candidate such as say Nikki Haley she’d be beating Biden badly enough that he already would have dropped out by now. All Democrats really need to do to beat Trump is nominate a candidate that’s inoffensive and that can convince voters she’s competent.
All of that said, I don’t expect it to happen. The power in the Democratic Party has always been with the moderate wing, they always get what they want, and I expect that they will this time too. Republicans nominate far right candidates like Trump from time to time and win with them about half the time, but Democrats would never dare cross the moderates who want Biden to run again this time. I recognize that it will be an unmitigated catastrophe for the country, but I’m already in the process of mentally preparing for another Trump term.
My assessment is that Biden’s chances right now are maybe not quite hopeless, but they are at least very dire. For months he has consistently trailed Trump in major national polls, on average by about two points. At first glance that might not sound like much, but if instead he were winning by two points that would still not be enough. The electoral college is now heavily tilted (you might say rigged) against Democrats, so their nominee will have to win the popular vote by a comfortable margin to just eke out an electoral college win.
Now you might say there’s time for Biden’s popularity to rebound or point out that Democrats have over performed the polls in recent elections. First, yes, in theory there’s time for Biden to catch up, but he’s equally likely to fall even farther behind and given that both candidates are known quantities it’s unclear what form his potential game changer might take. To the second argument, no, Democrats have over performed expectations set by media hype in recent elections, but they have barely if at all over performed the polls; in fact, the polls have been pretty close to accurate lately.
So what should be done? Ezra Klein made some noise by suggesting in a NYT op ed that Biden drop out, not endorse anyone, and let candidates fight it out in an open convention; the problem with that that I buy is that it risks leading to a lot of infighting on divisive issues that will be off putting to Democrats and potential swing voters alike. Instead, I think Biden should consult Obama and other top Democrats and decide to endorse a ticket that’s unlikely to inspire controversy and has a solid chance of winning. Harris is polling at least as badly as Biden, so it shouldn’t include her; however, to avoid controversy the ticket probably must contain a woman and a person of color. There are probably several viable possibilities, but it seems to me that probably the best one is Gretchen Whitmer for president and Raphael Warnock for VP. An alternative that I also like that I haven’t seen suggested in any of the commentary would be Amy Klobuchar for president and still Warnock for VP, as Klobuchar was one of the final five in the 2020 Democratic primaries and polled well in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Most Americans don’t like Trump and don’t really want him to be president again, but they think he’s competent and not especially dangerous. They think Biden is incompetent, which they attribute to his advanced age. Both are very weak candidates. Trump is weak enough that he’s giving Biden supporters the illusion that Biden has a chance to beat him, because if Republicans nominated even an average-strength candidate such as say Nikki Haley she’d be beating Biden badly enough that he already would have dropped out by now. All Democrats really need to do to beat Trump is nominate a candidate that’s inoffensive and that can convince voters she’s competent.
All of that said, I don’t expect it to happen. The power in the Democratic Party has always been with the moderate wing, they always get what they want, and I expect that they will this time too. Republicans nominate far right candidates like Trump from time to time and win with them about half the time, but Democrats would never dare cross the moderates who want Biden to run again this time. I recognize that it will be an unmitigated catastrophe for the country, but I’m already in the process of mentally preparing for another Trump term.
