A very early look at the Electoral College for 2024
For better or worse (actually, definitely worse), only five states really matter for the 2024 presidential election. They are Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia. All of them went for Donald Trump in 2016 but all turned blue in 2020. The other states pretty much always vote the same way and are very predictable, although under the right circumstances, Nevada, New Hampshire, and North Carolina could be in play.
The 2016 results in two of the states, Michigan and Pennsylvania, are really anomalies. Since 1992, both have been reliably blue states. The 2016 election is the only time since 1988 a Republican has won either one, and then only by a hair. Trump won Michigan in 2016 by 10,704 votes out of 4.80 million (0.23%). He won Pennsylvania by 44,292 votes out of 6.2 million (0.72%). In contrast, in 2020 Joe Biden won Michigan by 154,188 votes out of 5.54 million (2.78%) and Pennsylvania by 80,555 votes out of 6.94 million (1.16%). Barack Obama won Michigan by 8 points in 2012 and 16 points in 2008. He won Pennsylvania by 5 points and 11 points, respectively. That's more normal.
So for the moment, let's assume Michigan and Pennsylvania stay blue, especially since both elected a Democratic governor in 2022 by double digits. That gives us this tentative Electoral College map for 2024, baring something very unusual:
The first thing to notice is that the Democrats are at 265 (261 if they really manage to kick New Hampshire out of first place in the primaries and the voters take revenge on them). That leaves the blue team 5 (or 9) EVs short of 270, with three swing states in play. All three have at least 9 EVs. That means that the Democrats have to win only one of them to win. The Republicans must win all three (or flip some state not really in play). All three will be truly massive battlegrounds.
Arizona and Wisconsin will be especially in play due to hotly contested Senate elections. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) and Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) are up in 2024. In Arizona, especially, Democrats hate Sinema and are likely to turn out in huge numbers to vote for the actual Democrat in the race, probably Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), although he could yet pull a primary challenger.
These observations are largely independent of whether Biden runs again and of who the Republican nominee is. If Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) is the nominee, that might give him an edge in neighboring Georgia, but is more likely to hurt rather than help in Wisconsin, where working-class voters may not love him as much as they love Trump.
In short, while there is a huge amount of attention to who will be the nominees, keep in mind that it is the Electoral College that matters and the patterns there tend to transcend who the candidates are.
Given that Trump will be indicted and possibly convicted prior to the election, and still could be the Republican nominee, it is possible he could be elected while imprisoned. It is going to be a fascinating election, even if Trump is not the nominee.
Suppose the Republicans choose DeSantis or another non-Trump candidate. Trump could run an ego-fueled third-party campaign. This would destroy Republican chances of victory, but it could also result in an election where no one gets a majority of Electoral votes, and the election gets thrown to the House, with Trump taking several states and the Democrats stuck at 261 or 265. With each state getting a vote, that could end up 26-24 one way or the other, or even tied 25-25.
@Roundandroundwego You're talking about electing the president by popular vote. I would support that. Aside from a constitutional amendment, what you're referring to is the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, which so far 16 states have signed on to. It goes into effect once the total electoral votes reaches 270, but you can be sure it will be challenged in court. The constitution also forbids any interstate compact unless Congress approves it, so you would need a Democratic Congress to have any hope of approval.
The reason the EC will persist should be obvious from my map. There are at most five competitive states, so candidates can focus on those. A national popular vote would require them to campaign everywhere, making elections more difficult and expensive than they are now. Under the current system, candidates can basically ignore expensive media markets like California, Illinois, New York, and Texas since those states are in the bag for one party or the other.
One interesting thing about your map is that Florida is no longer a swing state. Florida has basked in the attention, legislation, and money that we shower on swing states; I wonder how they'll react as that starts to dry up.
@ElwoodBlues Florida is now a deep red state, as is Ohio. I live in Georgia, which may be the swingiest of swing states right now, so I expect to be inundated with ads when the election season heats up. Especially since the only expensive media market here is Atlanta, so it's a lot cheaper to campaign here than in Florida.
@LeopoldBloom We used to have these weird "wet foot, dry foot" immigration policies, and I believe they were designed to court votes of Cuban-Americans in Florida; a swing demographic in a (former) swing state. When a hurricane smashed Homestead AFB, Bush 1 was right there with rebuild promises. The only place where Trump didn't fight offshore drilling bans was around Florida.
Florida always got tons of earmarks. Now that they're back in style "Republican lawmakers claimed eight of the 10 most expensive earmarks, with Rep. Brian Mast of Florida, securing the largest: $447 million for an ecosystem restoration project in South Florida." As Florida's seats become more secure, I expect they'll bring home less pork. It'll be interesting.
@ElwoodBlues I remember the "wet foot, dry foot" thing coming up in the Elian Gonzalez case, since he was picked up at sea.
I wonder if Georgia will start seeing some of the largesse that Florida loses. Georgia is already a huge beneficiary of federal funding, mainly due to all of the military bases here (Georgia has one of the highest, if not the highest military presence of any state). There's plenty of empty space at Fort Stewart that could be used for programs now at bases in other states.
Thanks for your very insightful analysis. There is still time for many twists and turns in the race. While it's hard enough to look down the road, it's even more difficult to see around corners.
@Roundandroundwego Every state has that rule. No one can legally vote more than once, and multiple voting is almost unheard of. Occasionally someone is registered in two states, but only votes in one. Voter fraud is almost a non-issue today.
@LeopoldBloom not exactly. There's a state by state project that goes around the electoral college. Some but not all states have passed the law. It certainly does not exist for people married to the electoral college and the endless two parties in war. You don't know about it and never should,-. It's only gonna help the other side. My side.
@LordShadowfire Biden's going to have to make a decision pretty soon, as there are plenty of people who will jump in if he doesn't run. Harris isn't an automatic pick.
@LeopoldBloom I thought there was a rule about that, like if the incumbent wants to run again, they can't run anybody else instead. Wasn't that the trouble with Trump?
@LordShadowfire I'm not sure it's a rule, but it's definitely frowned upon. But there are plenty of examples of challengers to the incumbent. Ted Kennedy's challenge of Jimmy Carter in 1980 may have contributed to Carter's loss to Reagan as he had to expend resources to beat Kennedy that could have been used against Reagan. Kennedy didn't concede until the second day of the convention.
@LordShadowfire I used to live in Oregon. It's reliably blue, so you could pretty much vote for anyone without worrying that you were helping to elect someone you despised. I live in Georgia, which right now is the mother of all swing states. I will vote for the Democrat no matter what. If Joe Manchin moved here and ran for office, I'd vote for him.
@LordShadowfire You're welcome. And we sent Warnock back for another six years, although I have to say, if he'd run against Brad Raffensperger and not Herschel Walker, he'd have a different job today. No other Democrat won statewide office in 2022.
