What happened to the recession and market crash we were warned about?
The DOW is back up into record territory, and no recession in sight.
Why were the experts wrong?
Why were the experts wrong?
This page is a permanent link to the reply below and its nested replies. See all post replies »
TinyViolins · 31-35, M
By definition, a recession requires 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. The 2025 Q2 report hasn't been released yet, so officially we still have to wait. It's a lagging measure. We can't genuinely say we're in a recession until we've been in it for a while.
But the stock indexes are no measure of recession. There are plenty of examples of the Dow rising during previous recessions and plummeting during periods of economic growth. If you remember during Covid, the stock market was booming for a while
But the stock indexes are no measure of recession. There are plenty of examples of the Dow rising during previous recessions and plummeting during periods of economic growth. If you remember during Covid, the stock market was booming for a while
DogMan · 61-69, M
@TinyViolins I just read that the 2nd quarter was 2.9%
TinyViolins · 31-35, M
@DogMan Must be a forecasted estimate. The Bureau of Economic Analysis won't release their report until tomorrow
TinyViolins · 31-35, M
@DogMan Hopefully the news isn't too bad. Feels like ever since the 08 crash, people have been recession-mongering to drum up clicks and views. It's all pointless in the end. We don't really have any way of predicting recessions. Might as well be like those religious quacks that keep saying we're in the end times
DogMan · 61-69, M
@TinyViolins I'm hedging my bet that it is close to 2.9%
DogMan · 61-69, M
@TinyViolins Did you hear the news? 3.0% I was off by 0.1
TinyViolins · 31-35, M
@DogMan Yeah, that's a sigh of relief. Lots of companies were releasing their Q2 reports and hinted at the economy remaining steady, so this is a good sign. Granted, a lot of that GDP growth is masking the fact that imports are drastically lower than normal, so the next 2 quarters are really going to be the litmus test for the direction of the Trump economy. His tariffs haven't even set in yet.
Still, I'm just happy to see that consumer spending is at a healthy level. It's definitely a win for Trump so far, but the next few months is when things really get interesting
Still, I'm just happy to see that consumer spending is at a healthy level. It's definitely a win for Trump so far, but the next few months is when things really get interesting
DogMan · 61-69, M
@TinyViolins I think it will really take off when interest rates start getting lowered. But it will be a struggle if they don't.
TinyViolins · 31-35, M
@DogMan Well I'm not expecting that to happen anytime soon. It would be great to have lower rates, but the Fed is hesitant for good reason.
Consumer spending is doing fine right now. Unemployment is fine. The stock market is fine. There's not really a need to stimulate spending. Couple that with the huge levels of uncertainty regarding tariffs, it's best to keep things steady until we can figure out the impacts on inflation will be. If inflation ends up hitting harder than expected, then the Fed would have already blown its only chance to curb it.
Consumer spending is doing fine right now. Unemployment is fine. The stock market is fine. There's not really a need to stimulate spending. Couple that with the huge levels of uncertainty regarding tariffs, it's best to keep things steady until we can figure out the impacts on inflation will be. If inflation ends up hitting harder than expected, then the Fed would have already blown its only chance to curb it.