What 66 Economists Say About Where the Economy Is Headed, in Charts

Wall Street Journal
By Harriet Torry, Peter Santilli and Anthony DeBarros
Oct. 16, 2024 5:30 am ET

I will spare you the suspense: under Trump, inflation will rise, interest rates will rise and economic outlook will drop. Under Harris: a cheerier outlook for GDP.

And that's from the Wall Street Journal

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ElwoodBlues · M

Economists at Goldman Sachs have a similar opinion.

Under Harris, job growth would be 10,000 a month higher than if Trump wins with a divided government, and 30,000 higher than with a Republican sweep, Goldman estimates.

Goldman Sachs sees biggest boost to US economy from Harris win
Reuters - Sept 4, 2024

"We estimate that if Trump wins in a sweep or with divided government, the hit to growth from tariffs and tighter immigration policy would outweigh the positive fiscal impulse, resulting in a peak hit to GDP growth of -0.5pp in 2025H2 that abates in 2026."

"If Democrats sweep, new spending and expanded middle-income tax credits would slightly more than offset lower investment due to higher corporate tax rates, resulting in a very slight boost to GDP investment due to higher corporate tax rates, resulting in a very slight boost to GDP growth on average over 2025-2026."

... Under Harris, job growth would be 10,000 a month higher than if Trump wins with a divided government, and 30,000 higher than with a Republican sweep, Goldman estimates.

A Trump win would likely led to increased tariffs on auto imports from China, Mexico and the European Union that would raise core inflation, Goldman says.