What 66 Economists Say About Where the Economy Is Headed, in Charts

"We estimate that if Trump wins in a sweep or with divided government, the hit to growth from tariffs and tighter immigration policy would outweigh the positive fiscal impulse, resulting in a peak hit to GDP growth of -0.5pp in 2025H2 that abates in 2026."

"If Democrats sweep, new spending and expanded middle-income tax credits would slightly more than offset lower investment due to higher corporate tax rates, resulting in a very slight boost to GDP investment due to higher corporate tax rates, resulting in a very slight boost to GDP growth on average over 2025-2026."

... Under Harris, job growth would be 10,000 a month higher than if Trump wins with a divided government, and 30,000 higher than with a Republican sweep, Goldman estimates.

A Trump win would likely led to increased tariffs on auto imports from China, Mexico and the European Union that would raise core inflation, Goldman says.