The east vs west /christian vs Muslim situation might not be so pronounced. There would be no Isreal.
Had the Ottoman Empire remained neutral in World War I, Germany still would have lost.
Arab nationalism was growing even before World War I, so the Ottoman Empire was likely to suffer major schisms before 1939. Britain was still in occupation of Egypt.
I think the #1 question would be what might have happened in Russia. Would there have been the October Revolution of 1917 and the ensuing Russian Civil War?
While the Russian losses on the Turkish front were much smaller than on the Eastern Front, it is reasonable to assume that Russia would have redirected many of those troops to fight Germany.
British and French troops in the Middle East theater could also have been redirected to the European theater. Winston Churchill's reputation isn't damaged by the disaster at Gallipoli.
There would have been a lot of butterflies involved, but it is still quite possible and perhaps more likely than not that Germany still loses the war without being invaded. And Adolf Hitler and the Nazis then still come to power in 1933 with help of the "stab-in-the-back" myth.
As for the question as to the creation of Israel, the Holocaust was a major precipitating factor.
