Has anyone seen any kind of predicted casualty number for the virus, global or national?
22-25, F
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PicturesOfABetterTomorrow · 41-45, M
@IstillmissEP Again not likely because there is zero evidence of supply shortages. The empty shelves that are scaring people are because of a sudden increase in demand due to short term panic buying. That wont last.
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It can't be predicted accurately because there are different scenarios based on the actions taken and on compliance. There have been some broad figures thrown out there by some very qualified people, such as up to 60% of the world's population could get this virus over a year. It really depends on measures taken and interventions such as vaccines.
Marganitbatadam · 22-25, F
SW-User
@Marganitbatadam Funny you should say that because in the UK they are indeed trying to force cremations over burials because there won't be enough space in cemetaries
PicturesOfABetterTomorrow · 41-45, M
Being a Canadian I am also following what is going on in the US because this thing does not care about borders. As it stands New York state passed the point of no return for a complete lockdown on the 18th of March. Because that did not happen they could be looking at 300k dead in that state alone and Washington State will probably be in a similar state of affairs,
Here in Canada we only have 24 dead but cases have skyrocketed to 2091 and there will only be more because frankly people are being stupid and our government is worried about the optics of a crackdown.
Here in Canada we only have 24 dead but cases have skyrocketed to 2091 and there will only be more because frankly people are being stupid and our government is worried about the optics of a crackdown.
Nyloncapes · 61-69, M
@Burnley123 people up London still not taking serious tube stations and trains packed still this morning
Burnley123 · 41-45, M
@Nyloncapes Urrrrgh. That is bad.
PicturesOfABetterTomorrow · 41-45, M
@Burnley123 I will have to look up the source again. It gave projections for every state and uses the same calculations used to figure out how to flatten the curve of infection in each state based on the number of case, how quickly the numbers are increasing and the numbers of total hospital beds. Once the number of beds is exceeded the death percentage goes up drastically. Italy is at 9%. According to the calculations a total lockdown would have had to be implemented in NY by St. Patrick's day. That didn't happen.
There are several scenarios being given to the press
The most likely USA scenario is 1.2M cases and 6,000 deaths
Weather, medicines, isolation effectiveness and treatment efficiency will likely keep the final 2020 totals below that number.
A few days ago California projected a low of 12M cases and 1.2M deaths in their state alone (they seem to be walking this back)
I have the numbers for the UK
The most likely USA scenario is 1.2M cases and 6,000 deaths
Weather, medicines, isolation effectiveness and treatment efficiency will likely keep the final 2020 totals below that number.
A few days ago California projected a low of 12M cases and 1.2M deaths in their state alone (they seem to be walking this back)
I have the numbers for the UK
Burnley123 · 41-45, M
I was talking to an healthcate academic (uk) amd he is predicting 1% of the national population dying. Its the worst case but he thinks its possible due to our governments slow reaction to the crisis.
PicturesOfABetterTomorrow · 41-45, M
@Burnley123 Sadly if Italy is a guide once the NHS is overwhelmed that percentage goes up.
Burnley123 · 41-45, M
@PicturesOfABetterTomorrow Hes predicting the nhs being overwhelmed but also having sone effect in reducing deaths. Also that some high risk people wont get it.
Hes soneone big on stats and resource allocation in the NHS and teaches medical science at the London Imperial college. Hes predicting 500,000 deaths, with everything factored in and he is a well positioned expert.
Hes soneone big on stats and resource allocation in the NHS and teaches medical science at the London Imperial college. Hes predicting 500,000 deaths, with everything factored in and he is a well positioned expert.
PhilDeep · 51-55, M
No, but I'm sure using current data it wouldn't be that hard to model some expectations if trends are assumed to repeat. A big uncertainty is will stats for China start rising again when lock-down ends, as I believe it now has.
UnlikeableAndy · 36-40, M
Hopefully none dead in my country as we go pretty much in to lockdown.🤞🏼 As for global, it’s not really possible to predict..
User41 · 36-40, M
So far no one died