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Economics question...

Could someone please explain to me why, if prices on everything go up due to inflation and people are having trouble affording the things they need, why does the gov't raise the interest rates and tell us it is to help curb inflation? Seems to me by raising the interest rates, they are adding to the list of things we can't afford.
Heartlander · 80-89, M
Inflation is a result of too much $$$ chasing too few goods. So, by raising interest rates it (hopefully) dampens the demand, because many things are purchased on credit. In effect, the cost of credit would reduce demand, and reduced buying would hopefully then force suppliers to lower their prices to move their inventories.

Lower prices would seem to encourage cash buyers; because they don't have to pay the extra cost for credit. But raising interest rates also gives people with cash an incentive to save rather than buy.

For a good example, look at what rising mortgage rates are are doing to the cost of real estate. With the higher interest rates, fewer people can afford to buy a home, and with reduced demand, home prices should come down.

But all of the above is chancy and may backfire because there's much more to it. Like inflation also causes employees to demand more from there employers, and higher interest rates also affect corporate borrowing. Also a lot of business and consumer credit is variable and raising interest rates on existing credit can push somme consumers and businesses over the edge. This happened just 12 or 15 years ago, and it looks like it may soon be happening again.
Budwick · 70-79, M
@Ferric67 That's an interesting take.
Especially since there seems to be 'supply chain' issues for darn near everything.

Heartlander I think responded well in regards to oil.
Ferric67 · M
@Budwick I'm big in buying up oil stock, I've been lobbying for them for months
Heartlander · 80-89, M
@Ferric67 It took me a while to figure out what was going on with oil stock. Just a few years ago the big oil companies were losing $$ by the billions and in some cases were paying more in dividends to their stockholders than they were earning, and even if they were losing money. All the advisors said "avoid-avoid-avoid" because they couldn't sustain the dividend payments and when the day comes that they have to cut them the value will drop to single digits. And that created a general rule for me to not own stock in companies where dividends consumed most of the earnings.

But in hindsight (duhh?) oil company executives have to hold on to their dependable stockholders, even if it means paying out more than they earn for as long as humanly possible. Otherwise, the board and chief executives risk getting fired at the next stockholders meeting. So what we are buying in most oil stock is management stability and what we are getting in return is a reward for our trust in them.
redredred · M
Inflation is too many dollars chasing static or too few goods. Nobel prize winning economist Milton Friedman said that inflation is ALWAYS caused by government; it’s a policy not a natural disaster.

When the government spends money it does not have, it either borrows it or prints it and usually a bit of both. By raising the interest rates two things happen. Our bonds (the mechanism by which the government borrows money) become more attractive to investors and the cost of money (your credit card etc) becomes more expensive and your buying slows down reducing the rate of inflation.

It is never necessary, it is always a result of government over spending.
redredred · M
@Ryderbike I’m not going to argue economics with a demonstrated idiot. You don’t have even a basic understanding of economics if you can’t distinguish debt from currency inflation. I directed you to the Weimar Republic for clarification, you didnt read up on it. It’s like teaching algebra to a beagle.
redredred · M
@whowasthatmaskedman Once again, learn the difference between debt and “quantitative easing”
whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M
@redredred I know the difference. "Quantitative Easing" is inflation by stealth. It morphs into debt when people realise the goods and services they want to purchase cost more than they used to in paper money or accounting terms.. And just to educate you, the fraud on the people was perpetrated when some bright spark on Wall Street decided money was more than a means of exchange and that you could "create" it. Money is no nore than an accepted means of exchanging real value. If the idea of money had remained pure, then inflation would never happen. Because one cow would always be worth three pig or thirty chickens.😷
scorpiolovedeep · 51-55, M
Inflation is usually measured by the CPI.

Consumer Price Index provides data about price increases for households on average (by comparing a basket of goods).

If CPI is high , they will increase the rates.

They adjust the interest rates to fasten or slow down the economy to achieve its inflation target of 2-3 per cent over the medium term.

If nothing else changes, higher interest rates lower spending and increase savings in the economy.
whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M
@scorpiolovedeep The cut down version is that "all other things being equal" (watch that phrase, it matters.) Raising interest rates lowers household spending and that lowers economic activity and that stops wages and prices rising over time.
One could argue that a 2 year pandemic and supply chain disruptions mean this time all other things arent equal. But economics only works perfectly when you keep the people out of it.😷
Higher interest rates encourage saving and discourage borrowing and, in turn, spending. In response, companies increase their prices more slowly or even lower them to encourage demand.
SW-User
@Ryderbike Yes, and I like in Ontario right now, how much support is being given towards the labour movement. That's a gamble Ford took, and I think he's owning it now. Outside conversation, I know, but on topic of gambling, there are ways to legally challenge the use of the notwithstanding clause and in the end I imagine that's how it's going to be resolved here.
@SW-User Vancouver island .

Originally from Winnipeg
SW-User
@Ryderbike Thanks, I'm about an hour west of Toronto. I imagine similarities are large in our local regions.
Higher interest rates reduce the demand for cheap loans. This ultimately reduces the money supply, driving down inflation.
Carissimi · F
Except they keep printing money out of thin air, then send it to Ukraine. @BizSuitStacy
@Carissimi Which is why inflation continues. Inflation is 100% about the money supply.
Wiseacre · F
👍well said!@BizSuitStacy
Adstar · 56-60, M
They believe that higher interest rates mean higher interest payments to the banks.. If you are in debt then the more money you have to pay to the banks the less you have to spend on other things like food, fuel, electronics.. If less money is being spent on food, fuel and other stuff there will be a drop in the sales of these other things.. That means there will be an over supply of these things and the suppliers of these things will need to lower their prices to get sales.. And if all these things start to be cheaper then that will lower inflation.. This is their idea anyway..

Of course the reason why food and fuel and electronics have been going up in price is because there is a lowering of supply of these items with the war in Ukraine cutting of millions of tons of Wheat and huge amounts of natural gas and China with it's insane Covid shutdowns is causing disruptions to it's manufacturing sector which reduces it's production and export of things like Iphones and other consumer electronics.. So this inflation has not been caused by consumers buy too much.. it has been caused by producers supply being reduced.. So as long as the supply side is failing to supply demand then raising interest rates is only going to cause more suffering to the population and will more then likely plunge the world economy into a global depression..
Livingwell · 61-69, M
I just read a pretty detailed article on this. It seems the fed implemented a new policy in 2020 and completely missed the effects of the faster than anticipated recovery from Covid, increased demand from transportation shortages, pay increases, and strong job market. Stimulus exaggerated the effects of inflation. And then the fed was reactive instead of looking ahead. Jerome Powell will go down as one of the biggest failures as fed reserve chair for his monetary policies.
whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M
@Livingwell Not that I see a conspiracy here.. But since economists like Joseph Stiglitz have been reading most of these factors into their predictions as hypotheticals, how come the smartest minds in the Fed didnt see it? A failure like this leaves the currency open for manipulation that only widens the gap between the haves and have nots..😷
Because our government feeds the population to predators.
firefall · 61-69, M
Raising interest rates makes loans more expensive, so ppl cant afford to borrow as much (or rather, banks will assess them at not being able to afford so much). This leads to less money in consumer pockets (eventually), which reduces how much they can spend.

It's an incredibly indirect and blunt bludgeon approach, but it does work to curb inflation. At the price of driving up unemployment, usually (less spending = less demand for products = less need for workers)
msros · F
@firefall True. I dont know why they take that decision, it really does not help.
Everything is borrowed, business expenses, loans, car loans, mortgages even government bonds.. by raising rates they curb demand by reducing affordability across the board.
To achieve sales volumes at higher rates, prices are pushed down to an affordable level, again.. across the board.
Prices reduction is deflation. Or reduced inflation..
When demand levels off and prices stabilize they will stop increasing rates and begin further adjustments ..
SW-User
Well in Canada, not sure where you are, the modus operandi of the bank of canada is supposed to be independent of government. I am told we have lower inflation than some, but the bank is rising interest beyond what some countries banks are doing. I expect that is if a home here costs close to a million dollars now, they know their limits.

Now coincidentally, we have a provincial government legislating education workers back to work, who make little compared to some. They have a union, and the provincial goverment has decided, we don't want to deal with you, we will make your right of association and strike illegal. We will go further and impose a contract, and while we know the court won't agree with us, we'll invoke a clause in the charter, notwithstanding. Pathetic excuse.
@SW-User I agree but then ford is a right winger.
fun4us2b · M
This time it's a mistake - we have supply and staffing issues driving prices higher. Not to mention rampant government spending. Fiscal tightening will exacerbate these problems, plus cause hardship amongst economically disadvantaged....but what do I know, I'm an SW Member....
They are slowing overall economic activity by raising interest rates. Lower overall activity will lesson inflation pressures but also reduce economic growth
hunkalove · 61-69, M
That's what Robert Reich says. But it's not about common sense, it's about greed.
@hunkalove counter intuitive solutions
hunkalove · 61-69, M
@violet71 Don't have a clue what that means.
They are countering if you don’t understand I’m sorry
Fairydust · F
Because that’s their plan, destroy us financially.

 
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