The Twentieth Century was the bloodiest period of human history, what will Twenty First Century be?

The Global Peace Index is put together evaluating almost every country in the world according to 23 indicators, broken down into three domains: "Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict," "Societal Safety and Security," and "Militarization," which reflect both social peace (crime statistics, the number of homicides) and a country's conflicts at home and abroad. Altogether, the average level of "global peacefulness," as measured by the index, had deteriorated by 0.42%.

The most obvious trend was that conflicts had become more internationalized, according to Steve Killelea, founder and executive chairman of the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), and one of the authors of the report. Ninety-one of the world's countries are now involved in some kind of conflict, the GPI found, compared to 58 in 2008.

"That's not necessarily a good or a bad thing," Killelea told DW. "Some might be involved in peacekeeping operations, like ECOWAS [Economic Community of West African States]. On the one hand, more countries are getting involved in wars overseas, but you could also say we're becoming more internationalized in how we're working together."

This might be seen as a surprising development, given that Western military intervention has been scaled back in the last decade. The US and NATO have now withdrawn from Iraq and Afghanistan, for example. But, as Killelea pointed out, the US is still involved in conflicts – it is now the biggest supporter of Ukraine.

Since the 21st century began, war has never cost humanity so much. The number of conflict deaths almost doubled in 2022 compared to the previous year. And war caused a 13% loss of global GDP, according to the Global Peace Index, released on Wednesday by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP).

The major new survey by the global think tank said that the average level of "global peacefulness" had sunk for the ninth year in a row, with conflict deaths topping the previous global peak reached in 2014 during the Syrian Civil War.

The dramatic increase in death rates was mostly driven by the war in Ukraine, where 83,000 people were killed in the past year, though the bloodiest conflict was in Ethiopia, where 100,000 people lost their lives.

Conflict deaths are higher than they have ever been this century with over 238,000 people killed in conflicts last year alone!

I certainly hope not. If we can avoid a major world war, we may make it through this century without a new, higher record of killings.

The 21st Century is shaping up to be the last throws of the dice for humanity. If we do not destroy ourselves through war, then it’s going to be by things such as plastics in the ocean, the weather or some other random but crazy reason.

In the words of Albert Einstein, “I don’t know what the third world war would be fought with. But the fourth world war will be fought with sticks and stones.”

I think the twentieth century will be the last one for humanity. Except for those who have killed off the rest of us.