In your opinion how long do you think this epidemic will last?
Oh good morning SW 👍😁
31-35, M
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Elessar · 26-30, M
I think the 1+ year estimates are worst case scenarios. Considering how much came out from research these last few months, I believe we can optimistically hope for this whole thing to end in Q4-2020 up to Q1-2021:
1) We have more than one vaccine candidates being trialed in humans already, based on different principles (so maybe if one doesn't work, another or a combination of multiple ones will).
2) We know the virus doesn't mutate fast (especially the surface proteins, and esp. compared to viruses like the flu), so hopefully a vaccine should cover all the existing mutations.
3) We know SARS-CoV guaranteed 1-3 years of immunity, and being these viruses very similar, it could be the case also for this one. This should rule out reinfections (all cases of re-infection reported to date seem to be false PCR negatives, so a minority of people were mistakenly considered [i]recovered[/i])
4) We have treatments that seem to relieve both pre-symptomatic cases (and reduce their chances of getting severe) and others that seem somehow effective also in severe cases. One of them gave positive results in a phase-3 clinical trial just yesterday, iirc. None of them are miracle cures but much much better than what we had two months ago, and it's not that research is going to stop or slow down anytime soon.
1) We have more than one vaccine candidates being trialed in humans already, based on different principles (so maybe if one doesn't work, another or a combination of multiple ones will).
2) We know the virus doesn't mutate fast (especially the surface proteins, and esp. compared to viruses like the flu), so hopefully a vaccine should cover all the existing mutations.
3) We know SARS-CoV guaranteed 1-3 years of immunity, and being these viruses very similar, it could be the case also for this one. This should rule out reinfections (all cases of re-infection reported to date seem to be false PCR negatives, so a minority of people were mistakenly considered [i]recovered[/i])
4) We have treatments that seem to relieve both pre-symptomatic cases (and reduce their chances of getting severe) and others that seem somehow effective also in severe cases. One of them gave positive results in a phase-3 clinical trial just yesterday, iirc. None of them are miracle cures but much much better than what we had two months ago, and it's not that research is going to stop or slow down anytime soon.
