A flood of Houston magnitude is a one in 800 year event? Will Trump see Global Warming?

@cycleman Name me one other flood that created a flooded area the size of Lake Michigan. No, this doesn't happen every year. Or any year. Until now.

@snowbelt If its an 800 yr event .. it means one of this magnitude occurs about once every 800 years .. not that its the first time ever

hi 4everman ·
good point. Still makes you think though hey. Like it is happening now. Why?
Best wishes
:)

@SW-User As someone who has done flood modeling for FEMA along the Texas Gulf Coast, an 800-year flood actually means that you have a 1/800 chance of having a flood of that magnitude in a given year. But in this case, it is based on a model of rainfall, stream/river flows, and stream/river capacity, because that area of Texas has never seen an event of this magnitude. In fact, there has never been an event of this magnitude recorded anywhere in the US. This is new territory.

There were unprecedented floods of the Mississippi and Ohio rivers 90 and 80 years ago respectively .. another devastating hurricane hit Galveston in 1900. Was that global warming too .. or just the natural cycle of catastrophic weather events?? While a small % chance to occur in any given year..it also follows it is statistically unlikely events of such magnitude will occur at all for long periods. Unprecedented in modern time I'll buy .. worst the world has seen .. ever .. sorry.

@SW-User I never said that this was unprecedented in world history. Just that the US has never seen an event like this. You are absolutely correct that the longer the period of time, the more likely a small-probability event is to happen. That's how statistics works, as you note. However, when you start to see multiple events of great magnitude over relatively short periods of time, that begs the question of why that is occurring (Houston had large floods from Allison in 2001 and Rita in 2008, before Harvey). And that is why the why of such events needs to be examined. The time for that will be after the event is done and people go back to document what occurred, why it occurred, and what can be done to mitigate future events.

@windinhishair Never ..even if limited to U.S.

Never goes beyond human recorded history .. so not in the last 300-400 years there might be annecdotal accounts from .. the last 100-200 tht there is any reliable weather reporting in some areas.

Not convincing for Never.

@SW-User OK, never in recorded human history in the US. Better for you? I'm sure the magnitude was higher during the formation of the Chicxulub crater in the Yucatan at the end of the Cretaceous.