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An epidemic of uncertainty: rumors, conspiracy theories and vaccine hesitancy

from Nature Medicine, published 10 March 2022

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-01728-z

"The COVID-19 ‘infodemic’ continues to undermine trust in vaccination efforts aiming to bring an end to the pandemic. However, the challenge of vaccine hesitancy is not only a problem of the information ecosystem and it often has little to do with the vaccines themselves. In this Perspective, we argue that the epidemiological and social crises brought about by COVID-19 have magnified widely held social anxieties and trust issues that, in the unique circumstances of this global pandemic, have exacerbated skepticism toward vaccines. We argue that trust is key to overcoming vaccine hesitancy, especially in a context of widespread social uncertainty brought about by the pandemic, where public sentiment can be volatile. Finally, we draw out some implications of our argument for strategies to build vaccine confidence.

"It has now been 2 years since the World Health Organization (WHO) declared that, alongside the COVID-19 pandemic, it was also fighting an ‘infodemic’ — an “overabundance of information, both online and offline”1. One index of the scale of this infodemic was that during April 2020, Twitter reported seeing a COVID-19-related tweet every 45 milliseconds2. The huge cascade of viral misinformation that has formed part of the COVID-19 infodemic has included conspiracy theories about the origins of the virus as well as suspicions around the motives behind government COVID-19 control measures. In this Perspective, we discuss the new digital communications landscape in relation to vaccines, emphasizing the role of trust in overcoming hesitancy and building vaccine confidence beyond the current pandemic.
Covid Vaccine effectiveness data from the US 2021 ⁠— did they work?

Executive Summary:
In 2021, the 75% of Americans fully vaccinated produced under 31% of Covid cases; while the 25% unvaccinated Americans produced nearly 70% of Covid cases.

In 2021, the 75% of Americans fully vaccinated produced under 20% of the Covid deaths, while the 25% unvaccinated Americans produced over 80% of the Covid deaths.

This means the US unvaccinated had a 5X higher chance of contracting Covid compared to the vaccinated per capita, and that overall the unvaccinated had about a 15X higher probability of Covid death per capita.

Note: since 'Long Covid' occurs in 15% to 25% of Covid cases, that means there is also a 5X higher prevalence of Long Covid per capita among the unvaccinated.

Details
Source https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e2.htm
is a CDC analysis of 25 geographically dispersed US jurisdictions. It presents statistics on Covid incidence and death rates broken up by "wave" (dates) and age, separately for vaccinated and unvaccinated. Most of the key data is in TABLE 1.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e2.htm

Discussion
Note that the period is Apr-Dec 2021; why? In the first quarter of 2021 we were busily vaccinating the 65+ cohort; the most vulnerable. There was an excess of unvaccinated deaths in that period and not enough vaccinated people to make a fair comparison. Including that timeperiod would skew the data to make vaccines look even better than they are.

Note that the total deaths add up to 117,207, while the total 2021 US Covid death toll was about 550,000. That is because this data is for 25 representative jurisdictions, not the whole nation. This data represents over a quarter of US deaths, so percentages from it are statistically representative of the overall US Covid situation.

Vaccine effectiveness (VE) declined from the pre-delta to the delta to the omicron waves, but vaccines still provided significant protection.
The age-standardized IRR for cases in unvaccinated versus fully vaccinated persons was 13.9 during April–May and progressively declined to 8.7 during June, 5.1 during July–November, and 3.1 during December, coinciding with the periods of Delta emergence, Delta predominance, and Omicron emergence, respectively. This decline suggests a change in crude VE for infection from 93% during April–May, to 89% during June, 80% during July–November, and to 68% during December. Age-standardized IRRs for deaths among unvaccinated versus fully vaccinated persons were relatively stable; crude VE for deaths was 95% during April–May, 94% during June, and 94% during July–November.

Booster doses were highly effective.
During October–November, age-standardized IRRs for deaths among unvaccinated persons were 53.2 compared with those in fully vaccinated persons with a booster dose and 12.7 compared with persons without a booster dose; these results represented crude VE against death of 98% and 92%, respectively.

Incidence rate ratios
IRRs were calculated by dividing incidence among unvaccinated persons by incidence among fully vaccinated persons (overall and by receipt of booster doses); after detrending the underlying linear changes in incidence
Are the Covid death numbers the result of mis-classification of other causes of death?

Here in the table are US death numbers for the top ten causes of death for six years ending in 2020. Notice how there are 20% more deaths in 2020 than the average of the previous five years? Doing the math, that's 500,000 excess deaths in 2020.

Notice how, in 2020, 345,000 of those 500,000 excess deaths are classified as Covid? Notice how almost all causes of death rose in 2020, including cancer & heart disease?

If there's any validity to the claim that lots of deaths have been mis-classified as Covid, why did almost all causes of death increase in 2020? Wouldn't mis-classification produce a reduction in those other causes? The evidence says mis-classification is a red herring.
Profiteering/monopolies is said to be unlawful in the USA, but Democrats are...
whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M
I blame America.. The standards are so low there that the people distrust the goverment as a habit..The nation is in turmoil from all sides and its contagious. If there is a good side it is that once the dust settles the average IQ might improve.. But thats cold comfort.😷
MarineBob · 56-60, M
Funny thing is people getting fired for not getting the jab but at the same time when it comes to the courts the courts will side with the employee
SW-User

 
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