04/30/21 Coronavirus

@Rolexeo Yeah genius, have you ever thought maybe that's because masking, distancing and handwashing have a significant effect on other viruses (Influenza) too?

@Elessar Then why are there still so many covid deaths, stupid?

@Rolexeo Maybe because they're much less than they would be without any measures in place, yet still way more than influenza since the disease is proportionally a lot more severe? Have you forgot how covid looked like when no containment was in effect?

[media=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_J60fQr0GWo]

@Elessar It isn't though, look at the survival rate. Or Florida, which is free of any cautionary measure and has less deaths per capita than most states

@Rolexeo And look at the survival rate of Influenza, which is several orders of magnitude higher. Logically, if both are curbed with the same identical means, and if one is more severe than the other, one would reduce and the other would almost disappear. It's called "proportion", they teach it in grade 5 over here.

As a plus you're treating survival rates as if they're constants, when they're actually not - it'll drop once hospitals can no longer respond, or if the viral dose one's exposed to is higher (in fact back then in Lombardy they had a >3.0% death rate, much higher than now). Without mentioning, how many of those survivors fully recover?

Maybe because Florida has different climatic and urbanistic characteristics than, say, NY?

@Rolexeo Florida has the third-highest count of confirmed cases and the fourth-highest count of deaths. Per capita, it has the 29th highest number of confirmed cases and the 27th highest number of deaths

Vaccines authorized for emergency use by the FDA have been administered in Florida since December 14. As of February 22, 2021, Florida has administered 4,390,626 COVID-19 vaccine doses with 13.4% of the population having received at least one shot and 6.9% of the population being fully vaccinated
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Florida)[i][/I]

Isn’t Florida the state that hosted some or other super-spreader event, so that it could become an exporter of covid-19 to the rest of the world?

@newjaninev2 Last I read they were in like 26th place for deaths per capita

@Elessar Florida also has a ton of old people and is pretty densely populated but nice try. This proves your cautionary measures are bs and give me a break. You honestly believe the flu deaths are so low cause of these preventive measures, really?

@Rolexeo Let me guess, I'm having the pleasure of speaking with someone graduated at the university of Facebook?

Population density and age are, each, *one* factor. There are plenty other factors that are linked to spread rates, first and foremost Florida doesn't have the reputation of having long winters with little to none UV from sunlight (which is proven to inactivate SCV2), low humidity, low temperatures, people spending most of the time indoors (thus having lower serum vit. D levels, another potential factor for infection/severity; and/or being exposed to higher viral loads), packing in public transportation, and so forth.

And logically, if you reduce the spread of the flu (whose modalities are known), you implicitly reduce also the deaths it causes. It's not rocket science lol

@Elessar You're the one jumping through hoops to argue against the Florida statistics lol

My point still stands, I gave you 2 examples of why Florida should have more deaths but yet they're doing better than average

@Rolexeo Your argument here is "Florida is fine, therefore everyone else* is cooperating to inflate the virus severity".

* Including countries that can't stand one another, e.g. Russia and the U.S. minus Florida, China and the U.S. minus Florida, the entirety of Europe, the U.K., Saudi Arabia, etc.

... Okay, lol

@Elessar No, my argument is masks and other preventive measures do little to nothing and Florida proves that. If you really cared you'd be telling people to exercise and eat healthy because the virus primarily kills those that are old, obese, or have health conditions

@Rolexeo Because clearly you didn't see what it did when masks, frequent handwashing, distancing and containment in general weren't a thing, in places and time such as here (north Italy, winter) where the conditions for its spread were optimal.

From having literally to place dead bodies in churches, warehouses, military trucks until some other region/state or even country could take them in, and while the entire country was in a hard lockdown, to being able to manage it with selective, regional pseudo-lockdowns. Wouldn't say it's the same, eh.

@Elessar Ok, so you're arguing against the scientists that say it's primarily old, obese, and people with health conditions dying, is that it?

@Rolexeo Uhm, no, I've simply pointed out that

1) mostly ≠ only, and
2) it can f*ck you up (likely permanently) even without necessarily killing you

@Elessar Masks and social distancing aren't a thing now in Florida, still doing better than most states so there goes your theory

@Rolexeo Again, masks and distancing are *one* factor. There are multiple factors to take into account (humidity, time people spend indoors, social habits, serum vit. D levels probably, viral dose, etc.) that are different region by region. Your "Florida is doing okay, therefore masks aren't needed anywhere" implication isn't really supported by science.

@Elessar It is though because Florida is densely populated and has more old people. 2 big factors for covid deaths, yet they're doing better than average with no prevntive measures put in place. Red states in general are doing better and NJ is doing worse than NY despite NY being densely populated and New Jersey being pretty much the opposite

@Rolexeo Okay, you've gotten like 3 factors together, when there are at least as many you didn't consider. Indoor time, humidity and sunlight / vit. D likely play an even more important role considering that over here in Europe, in the very same areas where it peaked in Winter it almost vanished in Summer, to be back again the next Fall/Winter 2021.

Again, your example doesn't justify dropping masks, hands hygiene and distancing. Especially when and where the climate isn't that of Florida.

@Elessar All of these factors play a much bigger role even individually than vitamin D and indoor time. Covid isn't exactly spiking in alaska compared to other areas

@Rolexeo Yeah, which is my point, there are multiple factors, no point in focusing on a few, or taking as an example a single lucky area.

If you want to make a significant comparison, take a place that experimented both containment and no containment (and experienced a serious peak at least once), and you'll notice a big difference.

@Elessar

You're ignoring the point I made. The considerations I mentioned play a bigger role in covid deaths yet they have less than average. Because masks, social distancing, etc are pretty much pointless.


Florida has been consistent.

@Rolexeo As I said, this is an irrelevant and baseless claim of yours. Not supported by any research, any data or any real world scenario (no area with high incidence managed to curb it without masks et al. and/or a lockdown). Therefore, in layman's terms, BS.

Insisting with bringing up Florida doesn't make your statement any more true.

@Elessar Florida, with and without preventive measures, similar deaths per capita, try again

@Rolexeo Lombardy, with and without masks, two different things. Same as NYC. Same as Spain. Same as the U.K. Try again.