British values

@Burnley123 I have my own opinion about the best candidate, but I do not feel any of them are presenting their genuine selves. They are trying to outflank Farage and appeal to their diminishing and increasingly bonkers paid membership. William Hague is on record saying that giving the membership the final say in leadership competitions was the worst decision he made while leader.

@SunshineGirl
I agree with party member democracy and think politicians should be accountable to the rank and file. Otherwise, its an unaccountable elite that can do what they want. I'd cite Starmer's Labour as an example. Yes, they won an election but the politics are neoliberal and there is nothing a party member can do about it.

However, (where we do agree is that) within the Conservatives, it's going to produce worse outcomes because it's where their party base is increasingly Faragist and Trumpian. They will probably vote for the most rightwing of whoever Tory MPs serve up.

I don't think they have a leader who is as effective a right-wing populist as Donald Trump or even Farage. Whoever they elect might not last very long because of the divisions and identity crisis.

In old political rules, there is no way that the Conservatives could win again. Given, their abysmal defeat and the lack of an obvious next step. Do they go 'liberal Tory,' like Cameron and Osborne? They would win back some Lib Dem supporters but keep losing to Reform and the party membership would not take that. Do they go full Farage? They could but they need someone who looks more convincing doing it than Sunak was. They would need to go anti-free trade and (at least performatively) have pro-working class spending policies. That is a hard sell to their donors and the free-marketeers in their ranks.

My guess is that: they will probably try and fudge the issue, whoever wins. They will go even more anti-immigration and hard on US-style culture-war issues because that costs them nothing and works in America. On economic policy, it will be a lot of hot air.

Under normal circumstances, Labour could not lose to this mess. However, the STarmer government is already unpopular and their is no path to that changing. So - though its unlikely - it is possible for a Farage-lite Conservative Party to win in four years.

My best guess though, is that Starmer will be ousted before the next election and whoever replaces him wins on a low turnout and with less MPs.

@Burnley123 Politics is highly unstable right now. My instinct is that Farage will implode and momentum will flow back to the Tories eventually. The party infrastructure is not at all professional.

Unpopular can be a good sign. What I want to see is a return to higher public standards (not helped by all the gift declarations) and some progressive tax measures in the forthcoming budget. Small steps at first . .

@SunshineGirl I respect your intellect immensely but I can't agree.

I do agree that it is highly unstable and the political crisis stems from the economy (as was ever thus). It's a confluence of things like: Long term decline relative to other countries, overdependence on the service and financial sectors, a private and public debt-led growth model becoming unsustainable, Brexit and Covid.

It's a crisis of British capitalism and the country is getting poorer. Governments are expected by the population to do more with less. Nuances aside: The choice is to tax more and maintain the same spending levels or cut. The government is choosing to cut despite having ruled out austerity.