Yesterday russia lost almost an entire battalion trying to cross a river on in eastern ukraine

I don't know if this is good news or not. I think Putin believes that Ukraine must remain a buffer state to avoid having NATO equipment right on Russia's border.

The fact that he has said as much in a national address makes it really unlikely he can back down from that stance. So Ukraine being neutral is an existential factor for Russia, which means nothing can be off the table, from chemical weapons to nukes.

Ukraine can beat Russian conventional forces and take out untold vehicles and troops with drones. But then what next? Does Russia just withdraw and let Ukraine grow closer to the West and more well armed? Or do they depopulate all the cities just like they did mariupol, but this time with chemical weapons and tactical nukes? Do they destroy the port in Odessa, make it so Ukraine's trade is severely impaired, then starve out the entire populace.

My suspicion is that the only reason Putin has not been able to do that yet is because the Russian population was told this was a liberation exercise. Once the Russian public accept it's a quagmire and an existential threat to Russia, Putin might have enough backing to go to the extreme measures. If that sounds far fetched, think about what the US would consider if Puerto Rico formed closer ties to China and there was an uprising where thousands of US troops were dying. This is a dangerous time