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I Just Want To Share What Is On My Mind

Covid-19 and the USA

I hope there aren't too many people out there with such blinkered knowledge as one out there. He seems unaware that the virus is already deep rooted in your country. And even if there are people who have yet to meet someone and breathe the same droplet inflected air, they soon will. It is likely that everyone will encounter this pandemic. I believe I actually had it myself just after the New Year, unknowingly of course. It can be mild. But it can also wipe out great swathes of society. It is possible to treat the symptoms with isolation and intensive care, but how many hospital beds do you have in the USA? Enough to care simultaneously with, let's be optimistic, only 5% of your population? I calculate that as 16.7 million people will become seriously infected requiring, if you're not careful, simultaneous treatment. Now, I know from personal experience that your health system ranks with the best in the world, if not the best. But, 16 million people in a short peaked bell curve? No, it can't. So, your only alternative is to lock down seriously by zones. This transfers just as easily at a soccer match or baseball game or children's birthday party. It is non discriminatory. If, as you suggest, New Orleans is a centre of social interaction, then yes, of course it too will suffer. So it, like everywhere else, must be locked down. And with minimal exception other than to support the health care machine trying to cope against an invisible tsunami. You must flatten the bell curve, now, and for months to come. The alternative is more stark than your understanding could comprehend.

One final point. This pandemic virus is bad enough without the potential exacerbation of civil unrest if people segregate parts of society off for whatever ill-considered blame and possibly homophobic prejudice. Simply not helpful and redirecting attention away from the simple fact that "we are ALL in the same boat, worldwide".

Please, do reconsider your dismissal of this virus as merely a sniveling cold. As good as the USA might be, it doesn't have 16 million coffins or graves. It will, like Iran, have to resort to mass pits and trenches.

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samueltyler2 · 80-89, M

I won't get into an argument with any one person here about the dangers of covid19, but if you believe it isn't dangerous, that all of the physicians, scientists and others are part of a giant conspiracy to frighten the world, what do you think is in it for them to do this? By the way, you need to look at the rapid escalation of not only the diagnosed cases, but the hospitalizations and deaths. They are increasing in a geometric fashion. Those are figures that cannot be refuted.

hippyjoe1955 · 61-69, M

@samueltyler2 Not a conspiracy. Simply human frailty. Not enough information makes for bad policy. Dr. Deborah Birx on Thursday provided encouraging coronavirus numbers suggesting that some of the predictive models were incorrect. As it is your approach seems to be "Don't confuse me with facts, my mind is made up".

According to Dr Birx:

“There’s no model right now, no reality on the ground, where we can see that 60-70 percent of Americans are going to get infected in the next 10-12 weeks,” she said.

Without specifically naming the Imperial College, Brix referred to models that predicted there could be 500,000 coronavirus deaths in the United Kingdom and 2.2 million deaths in the United States.

The scientist of the model revised the estimate of deaths in the United Kingdom to be roughly 20,000 people or fewer.

Birx said that the actual data coming in from other countries were different than some of the direst projections.

She noted that in major countries, there was never an attack rate of over one in over 1,000 people.

“The predictions of the models don’t match the reality on the ground on either China, South Korea, or Italy,” she said.

Birx also addressed reports that raised the alarm of New York City hospitals running out of ICU beds, ventilators, and creating “Do Not Resuscitate” (DNR) policies for patients.

She revealed that she spoke with health officials in New York, that there were still ICU beds and 1000-2000 ventilators available, and that there were no DNR policies enacted.

“We don’t have evidence of that right now,” she said.

samueltyler2 · 80-89, M

@hippyjoe1955 my mind is not "made up," I am a scientist, but I also have studied the history of pandemics and her comments were just totally off course. You are apparently hell bent to believe what POTUS and his henchmen tell you. Well, he has lied more times than any president in history, he has a way to get his people to accept, and even support his lies. Please listen to scientists and common sense. The governor of Kentucky called for closure of all bars/restaurants in his state, but the state just to the south of them did not. There is evidence that people living in southern Kentucky counties are travelling into the neighboring state and eating and drinking then coming back into Kentucky, so potentially are spreading the virus, and the disease, back to Kentucky. You might want to look at Scientific American which has an article discussing why covid19 is potentially even worse than the influenza virus responsible for the 1918 pandemic. Read the seminal history of the 1918 pandemic written a few years ago. Then tell me why we should listen to anyone who says we can relax out guard due!

here is the link to the Scientific American Article: http://links.email.scientificamerican.com/servlet/MailView?ms=NjQ0MDg2MTMS1&r=MTIxMDkwODg5MDQwS0&j=MTg0MzMzMjIxMwS2&mt=1&rt=0

hippyjoe1955 · 61-69, M

@samueltyler2 Sorry but I don't agree with Trump on this one. Sad that you assume I do. I am a rational person that tries to look for the best way forward. I don't think running and hiding is a good strategy,

samueltyler2 · 80-89, M

@hippyjoe1955 are you kidding me? Is running and hiding is what you are calling self-isolation to avoid the spread of the virus?

Brix was totally off base with her comments about what is happening in NY and elsewhere. My friends who still do ER shifts tell me what their day is like! It is living hell! A colleague-friend of mine, an ED physician was critically ill and on a ventilator for almost 10 days. He, thankfully, survived, all of those who cared for him are being quarantined to be sure they don't get sick! This is NOT the time to accept the plans that Trump is pushing, this is a "flat country" and we need to have standardized plans so that one state will not end up causing problems for the rest!

hippyjoe1955 · 61-69, M

@samueltyler2 Shut down the world there is a virus that is killing a few people. Can't have that.

Valentine · M

@samueltyler2 My friend, I think you are wasting your very precious time unfortunately. In change management, you can usually get buy-in from 75% of people. You will never convince the remaining stubborn 25%, you just have to ignore and move round them.

samueltyler2 · 80-89, M

@hippyjoe1955 if that is whatnupsets you, thstbyou think too fee are dying, define few? Please tell me how many have to die before you take it seriously?

hippyjoe1955 · 61-69, M

@samueltyler2 So when do we shut down the economy and go back to living in grass huts hunting game with an atlatl?

samueltyler2 · 80-89, M

@hippyjoe1955 now you really sunk to an all time low!

hippyjoe1955 · 61-69, M

@samueltyler2 Not at all. If you think our present lifestyle is sustainable while we shut down our economy you are dreaming in techicolour. If we don't get our poop in a pile very quickly we will be taken back a hundred years or more economically.

samueltyler2 · 80-89, M

@hippyjoe1955 so now you are an economist, not just a scientist? Get off of this nonsense. Listen to Those Who know how to model disease outbreaks and economics.

hippyjoe1955 · 61-69, M

@samueltyler2 Like expert who just readjusted his model 2500% lower? Too Funny

samueltyler2 · 80-89, M

@hippyjoe1955 please expand on that.

hippyjoe1955 · 61-69, M

@samueltyler2 You don't know about the model that predicted 500,000 deaths that was changed to 20,000? yeah that is a 2500% change.

samueltyler2 · 80-89, M

@hippyjoe1955 no, I know of no such prediction. I do know that the 1918 pandemic caused over 800,000 deaths just in the US. I haven't seen any model for covid19 is, but, so far, this virus seems both more infectious and more dangerous.

But, you still haven't answered my question. Just how many deaths are acceptable to you?

hippyjoe1955 · 61-69, M

@samueltyler2 The guys name is Neil Ferguson (not sure of the exact spelling) from a university in Britain. His model is the one that all the world leaders are relying on to set policy.

samueltyler2 · 80-89, M

@hippyjoe1955 I don't know the name, but Indont think there is any one model that people depend upon. There may be a single underlying model, which I doubt, but the data inputted varies from moment to moment. Ask the governor of Louisiana if he still thinks it Was a good idea to allow Mardi Gras? We are still very nearly in this pandemic, it is always best to prepare for the worst case scenario and be happy if your preparations end up being unnecessary. My friends working in.various cities, in emergency rooms are saying that things are far worse than what the media claims! They are on the firing line.

hippyjoe1955 · 61-69, M

@samueltyler2 Actually there is. Kind of sounds foolish but the model has been the go to model for the leaders. In a rush such is the covid crisis the first one out tends to be the one most cited.

samueltyler2 · 80-89, M

@hippyjoe1955 I have been on many conference calls about the covid19 pandemic, local, state and national. No one has actually stated and estimate of deaths. A lot depends upon available therapy, including ventilators, and more important a new vaccine.

hippyjoe1955 · 61-69, M

@samueltyler2 I certainly hear the models being cited in the pressers.

samueltyler2 · 80-89, M

@hippyjoe1955 they vary depending on current data, but there are none which express optimism, except those out of the mouth of a madman! He has no touch with reality!