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yeronlyman · 51-55, M
That was proposed here by one infectious disease processor. Though got no traction
On the summer solstice there was talk about a national holiday... makes economic sense as you point out
You would expect the pandemic in terms of death rate to be subdued in the northern hemisphere by April to august
As the population has immunity or at the least less symptomatic
Reasoning:
1) already infection population... varies by country but could be 5-20%. There is at the least evidence of antibody and tcell immunity in those studies and reinfection rates appear low so far
2) cross immunity... tcell immunity from beta coronaviruses potentially a big influencer and not discussed in media... this was a game changer in swine flu 2009 (acknowledged by ECDC and WHO)
A very good article appeared in the British medical journal in September 17th about this)
3) vaccine... when given to the vulnerable the death rate will drop rapidly as expected (the second wave here was 90% less deathly than the first)
4) northern hemisphere seasonality, expect from April onwards
SARS-COV2 is a nasty respiratory disease for some. Basic public health measures are important and work
Reduce contacts, wear masks and wash hands basics
Hopefully in time the natural course of the pandemic (deaths over cases) will play out and the shape of the course and curves will be similar (albeit larger) than the swine flu 2009
On the summer solstice there was talk about a national holiday... makes economic sense as you point out
You would expect the pandemic in terms of death rate to be subdued in the northern hemisphere by April to august
As the population has immunity or at the least less symptomatic
Reasoning:
1) already infection population... varies by country but could be 5-20%. There is at the least evidence of antibody and tcell immunity in those studies and reinfection rates appear low so far
2) cross immunity... tcell immunity from beta coronaviruses potentially a big influencer and not discussed in media... this was a game changer in swine flu 2009 (acknowledged by ECDC and WHO)
A very good article appeared in the British medical journal in September 17th about this)
3) vaccine... when given to the vulnerable the death rate will drop rapidly as expected (the second wave here was 90% less deathly than the first)
4) northern hemisphere seasonality, expect from April onwards
SARS-COV2 is a nasty respiratory disease for some. Basic public health measures are important and work
Reduce contacts, wear masks and wash hands basics
Hopefully in time the natural course of the pandemic (deaths over cases) will play out and the shape of the course and curves will be similar (albeit larger) than the swine flu 2009