I can't quite put my finger on it, but is there something wrong with this reasoning?

Today I ran into a friend who had a lit cigarette in her hand.

Shocked, I said, "Smoking? You?"

She shrugged. "I'm tired of paying rent and having nothing to show for it. I read the other day that in this state if you smoke two packs a day and quit, you'll save about $10,000 a year. I'm quitting tomorrow and in ten years I'll have a nice down-payment."