Science can't predict weather 4 days in advance; correctly.
And it estimates the age of fossils. Don't know which one is more accurate.
36-40, M
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ElwoodBlues · M
There are a LOT of clocks out there that we can correlate and cross reference.
[sep][sep][center]CLOCKS[/center][sep][sep]
Visit any limestone cave. Stalactites grow at a rate of about 1mm per 10 years. So a 10 meter stalactite has been growing about 100,000 years. And close examination of cross sections shows the year by year layering (where rainfall is seasonal). These stalactites can be found all over the world. The ages are corroborated by radiometric carbon dating.
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Tree rings are clocks. The oldest living tree goes back about 4800 years. But wood from dead trees can contain records of volcanic events, thus extending the record back much farther.
[quote] Originally developed for climate science, the method is now an invaluable tool for archaeologists, who can track up to 13,000 years of history using tree ring chronologies for over 4,000 sites on six continents.[/quote]The ages are corroborated by radiometric carbon dating (establishing age by measuring ratios of radioactive vs stable isotopes).
Seasonal snowfall on glaciers accumulates to form countable layers. Greenland ice sheet layers can be counted back about 110,000 years. The ages are corroborated by radiometric dating. Other glaciers go back as far as 700,000 years, but on those the older data is mostly radiometric dating.
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Salt flows from rocks into lakes and the ocean. If no salt left the ocean, that would give an age of 50 million to 70 million years. However, various geologic processes cause salt to leave the ocean at about the rate it's entering, so 50 million to 70 million years becomes a minimum estimate of the age of the earth.
Layering of sedimentary rocks - such as in the Grand Canyon - forms a series of clocks. These layers correspond to different stages in the evolution of life on the planet. The layers can be dated by positional order (bottom layer formed first), sedimentation rate, age of fossils found in the layer, and of course, radiometric dating. There are five main isotope pairs used for dating sedimentary rocks as well as the 'fissile track' method; you can read about it all here:
https://australian.museum/learn/minerals/shaping-earth/radioactive-dating/
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Then there's all the fossils of extinct animals found in the rock layers. They're not exactly a clock, but they are an indicator of the vast amounts of time over which evolution occurs.
Of course outer space offers many clocks. Accumulation of craters on airless bodies like the Moon forms a clock. Shells of glowing gas left over from novas and supernovas form clocks (the Lambda Orionis Ring is about 1 million years old). The redshift of light from galaxies billions of light years away form clocks. The Hubble expansion of the universe forms a clock. The frequency shift of big bang radiation to form the cosmic microwave background is a clock.
No one clock is perfect, but they all corroborate each other pretty well.
[sep][sep][center]CLOCKS[/center][sep][sep]
Visit any limestone cave. Stalactites grow at a rate of about 1mm per 10 years. So a 10 meter stalactite has been growing about 100,000 years. And close examination of cross sections shows the year by year layering (where rainfall is seasonal). These stalactites can be found all over the world. The ages are corroborated by radiometric carbon dating.
Tree rings are clocks. The oldest living tree goes back about 4800 years. But wood from dead trees can contain records of volcanic events, thus extending the record back much farther.
[quote] Originally developed for climate science, the method is now an invaluable tool for archaeologists, who can track up to 13,000 years of history using tree ring chronologies for over 4,000 sites on six continents.[/quote]The ages are corroborated by radiometric carbon dating (establishing age by measuring ratios of radioactive vs stable isotopes).
Seasonal snowfall on glaciers accumulates to form countable layers. Greenland ice sheet layers can be counted back about 110,000 years. The ages are corroborated by radiometric dating. Other glaciers go back as far as 700,000 years, but on those the older data is mostly radiometric dating.
Salt flows from rocks into lakes and the ocean. If no salt left the ocean, that would give an age of 50 million to 70 million years. However, various geologic processes cause salt to leave the ocean at about the rate it's entering, so 50 million to 70 million years becomes a minimum estimate of the age of the earth.
Layering of sedimentary rocks - such as in the Grand Canyon - forms a series of clocks. These layers correspond to different stages in the evolution of life on the planet. The layers can be dated by positional order (bottom layer formed first), sedimentation rate, age of fossils found in the layer, and of course, radiometric dating. There are five main isotope pairs used for dating sedimentary rocks as well as the 'fissile track' method; you can read about it all here:
https://australian.museum/learn/minerals/shaping-earth/radioactive-dating/
Then there's all the fossils of extinct animals found in the rock layers. They're not exactly a clock, but they are an indicator of the vast amounts of time over which evolution occurs.
Of course outer space offers many clocks. Accumulation of craters on airless bodies like the Moon forms a clock. Shells of glowing gas left over from novas and supernovas form clocks (the Lambda Orionis Ring is about 1 million years old). The redshift of light from galaxies billions of light years away form clocks. The Hubble expansion of the universe forms a clock. The frequency shift of big bang radiation to form the cosmic microwave background is a clock.
No one clock is perfect, but they all corroborate each other pretty well.
TheOrionbeltseeker · 36-40, M
@ElwoodBlues
[quote]Visit any limestone cave. Stalactites grow at a rate of about 1mm per 10 years. So a 10 meter stalactite has been growing about 100,000 years. And close examination of cross sections shows the year by year layering (where rainfall is seasonal). These stalactites can be found all over the world. The ages are corroborated by radiometric carbon dating.[/quote]
How much does it rain in a year? 150 cms? How much does it rain in a storm and abnormal condition? What if it grew 9 mtrs of its 10 mtrs during the ice age period 10,000 years ago? Or what if ice Age was exactly 6000 years ago?
[quote]Visit any limestone cave. Stalactites grow at a rate of about 1mm per 10 years. So a 10 meter stalactite has been growing about 100,000 years. And close examination of cross sections shows the year by year layering (where rainfall is seasonal). These stalactites can be found all over the world. The ages are corroborated by radiometric carbon dating.[/quote]
How much does it rain in a year? 150 cms? How much does it rain in a storm and abnormal condition? What if it grew 9 mtrs of its 10 mtrs during the ice age period 10,000 years ago? Or what if ice Age was exactly 6000 years ago?
ElwoodBlues · M
@TheOrionbeltseeker There are thousands of limestone caves with hundreds of stalactites each. Are you familiar with the behavior of the standard deviation of the mean? If so, you'll understand how averaging can increase accuracy.
ArishMell · 70-79, M
@ElwoodBlues Excellent explanation but speleothem growth is not quite as universal as that. The stalactite growth rate you give is very much an average and can differ across a country, let alone internationally. So they can be dated individually but are not reliable guides to how another cave is behaving.
What are [i]also[/i] being studied extensively now in caves are sediment deposits left by streams that have long since dried or found alternative routes, because these deposits are also yielding a lot of evidence of past climates.
What are [i]also[/i] being studied extensively now in caves are sediment deposits left by streams that have long since dried or found alternative routes, because these deposits are also yielding a lot of evidence of past climates.
TheOrionbeltseeker · 36-40, M
@ElwoodBlues Yes, I am families with standard deviation of mean principle both in theory and practice and No, it is not the correct explanation of my question.
ElwoodBlues · M
@TheOrionbeltseeker If you look at the cross sections of the stalactites you see lines marking seasonal growth. For any given cave you could slice a few speleothems into thin secctions and calibrate growth rates for that particular cave. My post gives just a few generalities on several forms of visible clocks. My point is not the particular details of each clock; my point is that there are many independent clocks corroborating each other. And my larger point is that some forms of measurement can be combined to make very precise predictions; thus the OP's claim about weather prediction doesn't invalidate most of the predictions made by science.