Should Scotland become independent?

Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish First Minister and Scottish National Party (SNP) leader has just announced that Scotland will be having a second referendum. This follows hot on the heals of the last referendum but she believes that Brexit (which a majority of Scotland voted against) gives her a fresh mandate to do this.

As a left-wing Englishmen, my own thoughts on this are somewhat conflicted. The political argument for independence is something that I have a lot of sympathy for and indeed some of the English left support Scottish independence. Scotland has a social democratic majority and hates being ruled by the more Conservative England, as do I. The selfish part of me wants the most anti-Tory part of our country to stay and help build a left alternative from within the UK. However, the Labour Party is miles away from power and if Scotland could successfully form a left-Scandanavian state to the north of us, then their good examples could show us a better way.

Is this likely to end well though? Scotland has economic strengths but is dependent on oil, which has halved in value globally. In addition, the Scots would either need to join the European single currency area, which is increasingly neo-liberal and increasingly disintegrating itself; or stick with a shadow pound, which would leave them at the behest of The Bank of England. I am no fan of single currencies with separate Governments anyway, because national economies are rarely that compatible with each other and when the s**t hits the fan, its always the weakest who get screwed. Look at Ireland and southern Europe as examples of this happening nearby.

All in all, I understand the temptation for Scotland to leave the union but I would not back it if I lived there. It would make the country poorer and would leave them economically vulnerable. However, I am no fan of UK politics in general and if they do vote to leave I very much hope that I am wrong.

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Northwest · M

I understand the temptation to flip London off, but I believe a Scottish exist is the wrong thing to do.

Protectionists, race and religion warriors don't see it, but airplanes, the Internet, and automation, among other things, the world IS going to be a single market and a single population.

It's a matter of when, not if.

Scotland's forward thinking population, will help the UK move in the right direction. Without the Scots, the UK may suffer longer inside its, soon to be implemented, isolationist bubble.

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

Not sure the world will become that. National identity has not abated and the power of technology resides in those who use it.

The potential exists, sure, but there are huge barriers and powerful interests that will not necessarily be mitigated by the things you describe.

Northwest · M

@Burnley123: I didn't mean tomorrow. However, the world is getting smaller by the day.

Nationalists tried to impose their world vision in the 1930s, but they failed.

Eventually though, DNA will prove that we all have the same genetic origin.

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@Northwest: DNA also passes on genes from a species that evolved from hunter gatherers and lived in tribes.

I'm just not optimistic. Automation in particular has the potential to create authoritarianism because it means that labour is no longer needed for capital. There is the point that world inequality is decreasing but it is increasing within the most advanced countries and will continue to do so without seismic political changes.

In addition, there is not a strong progressive alternative waiting in the wings to provide an alternative to the status quo. The 30s had Sovirt Communism (itself highly suspect of course) and in the west in had New Deal Keynesianism. There are not the social forces to bring this about currently as unions are weak and there is no class solidarity that can compete with nationalism. The two competing ideologies are (in the main) a failing neo-liberalism and a re-urgent nationalism.

This is maybe too pessimistic because good things could emerge from the crisis long term. A better future is possible but I really don't think its inevitable.

Northwest · M

@Burnley123: Automation, like Marxism, applied to people who have not had time to prepare for that kind of change, will create authoritarianism.

There are multiple startups, pushing automation in the restaurant business. At this point, it's possible to completely automate the process of making salads and hamburgers.

When I was in high school/college, I had a job in a restaurant. First in food prep, and then serving it. We know we can apply automation to food service. We can apply it to liquor service. I've designed a system that can eliminate bartenders. I did it as an experiment, and connected it to the supply chain, but did not deploy it.

What will happen, if these automated systems get deployed today? About 1 in 5 Americans has worked at McDonalds.

What happens to the hundreds of millions of manual laborers in India, Pakistan and China, if we automate their jobs? and we can do that, if not today, within a few years.

You will be left with hundreds of millions of uneducated, non-skilled people, who would like to feed themselves.

I am not proposing a solution for tomorrow, or the next decade. I'm projecting centuries ahead. What I see is a single world "government" where people can engage, as a collective, but not as "drones", incapable of individual thought, beliefs, etc.

In my part of the world, and even though Trump and the alt-right are worried about a Muslim takeover, the Chinese and Indians are taking over. More than 50% of $1M+ properties are selling to the Chinese, and more than 50% of Condos are ending up in Indians hands. The Chinese are here, because it's crowded and polluted in China, so the elite is escaping to a place, where they can buy a house, on a lake, with a Cascades backdrop. The Indians are escaping similar conditions, and joining the local tech industry. The latter tend to have less money, because they did not earn it running sweat shops.

But, I digress... :-)

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@Northwest: I agree. Technology has potential but you have to look at power structures and those who weild it. Humanity has never been organised under horizontality or egalitarian lines. It could and should be but struggle is needed to achieve that. I know you are talking about the future but that is not inevitable. Good discussion though.

Northwest · M

@Burnley123: Power structures have been part of us, since day 1, and will probably stay with us. That, along with ego, pride, etc., etc.

This is why Marx wanted a dictatorship, because no one is willing to give up what they have (not exactly no one, but the power elite, will not).

Yes, good discussion, but I remain hopeful, that one day, people will evolve and the euphoria produced by power, can be replaced by something else. You may still have leadership, but it will be a different type of leadership.