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"Any negative polls are fake news."

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 6, 2017
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Cierzo · M
He forgot to add 'all positive polls are fake news too'.
Burnley123 · 41-45, M
It is a point that pollsters have been abysmal at predicting things. From Trump to Brexit, to the last UK election; they have got things wrong.

Its no conspiracy, as the wing-nuts suggest though. Its just the arrogance of statisticians who think they are the masters of the universe and have quantified human behavior into a science. There are somethings that can be learned from the likes of Nate Silver but we should never think they know it all because underlying assumptions can always be wrong.
Cierzo · M
@Burnley123: I think statisticians were partly wrong, and also that polls have a purpose, either to uphold some belief, or make the public opinion sway
Anyway I find believing polls yet sooooo stupid.
@Burnley123: You're right about statistics, maybe statisticians also underestimated people's tendency to conceal their strong liking for populists.
Burnley123 · 41-45, M
@Cierzo: There is push polling but I haven't seen evidence of bias in the US election. The polls were wrong because of weak third candidates, the electoral college and most of all... shy Trump voters.
Burnley123 · 41-45, M
@EarthlingWise: Agreed. Its a classic case of the underlying assumptions being wrong. The UK 92 election was badly predicted because of 'shy Tory' voters. Support for our Conservative party was seen as selfish so people were less honest to pollsters about their intentions. I think something similar happened with Trump.
RodionRomanovitch · 56-60, M
@Burnley123: Exactly , it's one thing being a heartless , selfish bastard , but admitting to it is quite another.
windinhishair · 61-69, M
@pezzza: The national polls weren't that far off--on the eve of the election, they had Clinton the winner by 2 to 4 percentage points. She carried the popular vote by 2.1%, which is within that range. Where the polls were most off was in state-wide polling, where there are far fewer polls. And it was the states that gave Trump the victory in the Electoral College.