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Driverless cars still 5 years away – again. The Tesla version costs $130K and is geo-fenced to a 25 square mile grid.



Photo above – this is NOT the 2026 Tesla robotaxi. It’s an autonomous car from HBO’s WestWorld TV series, 5 years ago. The actual Tesla robotaxi looks like a base Model Y and costs $150,000. Robo taxis are not yet permitted to use the interstate.

Intel shares were up 14% yesterday alone. Somebody – a lot of people - are convinced that AI is going to drive profits to the moon, at the same time if throws millions of people out of work.

Tesla shares are down 5% YTD. Their price-earnings ratio is a mind-blowing 400. Each share costs 400X what the earnings per share are. The historic average for the stock market is a 20-25 PE. So Tesla is testing the limits of investment lunacy.

Telsa is also telling anyone who will listen that there is a consumer market for its $150,000 driverless robotaxi. This thing costs as much as a Maserati or Porsche but looks like a Chevy equinox. Still, you can’t rule it out, even though a KIA Ev starts at 1/3rd the price and is far snazzier. And Chinese EVs with stolen self-driving tech are knocking on the door (see link below)

The reason Tesla and Waymo self driving taxis are penned inside specific city blocks is that those blocks have been ultra mapped in ways normal roads cannot be, with low speed limits. This is why Telsa has stopped advertising the “full self-driving” feature on its retail cars. They are not only NOT self-driving, FSD Tesla Model Y's struggle to exit a parking lot competently.

There certainly IS a market for full self-driving cars. But it probably doesn’t start at $150,000 base, before options. Old people will want self-driving cars, to remain independent as their vision and coordination deteriorate. Drunks with DUI suspended licenses. Probably busy executives will buy them too, until they realize that self-driving vehicles – for insurance and liability reasons – will NEVER exceed the speed limit by even 1mph, will always to come a full stop at every vacant intersection, and yield to everything else when a merge is imminent. Add 50% to your commute time, big shot.

If you need any other reasons to be skeptical that AI is about to liberate us from the tyranny of competent humans, just consider the closed captions on any TV broadcast. I was watching a show about archaeology last night. The caption “toot tank amen” came up when the narrator spoke the phrase “Tutankhamun's mummy”. This wasn’t the only gaffe, merely the most hilarious. No wonder software developers have to examine and revise every line of code concocted by AI. It now takes twice as long to debug code which AI has written.

I’m just sayin’ . . .

Who will drive the driverless car revolution?

https://archive.is/1DJGu
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SusanInFlorida · 31-35, F
@jshm2 the industry seems to understand that nobody wants to pay $K150+ for a driverless car. thats why the business model is to charge us per taxi ride. in the same zone as a $7 starbucks, an $18 jersey mikes sub, or a $97 oil change at valvoline.
Munumbis · 46-50, M
FreddieUK · 70-79, M
Let's ask Waymo how it's going.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwy2011dl4xo
SusanInFlorida · 31-35, F
@FreddieUK to be fair to waymo, they never claimed that their robo-taxis were boats or submarines.
FreddieUK · 70-79, M
I share your skepticism.
Crazywaterspring · 61-69, M
AI is overblown. And I would never trust a driverless car. They're being tested not far away. When I see one it gets a wide berth. I'm not getting killed so Musk can get even richer. And that 400 P/E? Insane market manipulation.
SusanInFlorida · 31-35, F
@Crazywaterspring the first driverless car for sale to consumers will apparently be from china, not musk. but it will rely on the original/basic sensors and controls in a tesla, albeit enhanced in chinese labs.
@Crazywaterspring Do you trust cars with human drivers??
lpthehermit · 56-60, M
china is way ahead of us, including flying cars as taxis
The market will be corporations that will rent them to consumers on a trip basis. In the future, you won't own a car; you'll subscribe to one.
ArishMell · 70-79, M
@SusanInFlorida The lessors would no doubt impose heavy cleaning and repairs fees for reapirs to the sort of damage you suggest, but there is another objection to that hire-by-trip business model: supply and demand.

Would, or even can, the fleet owners possibly hold enough cars for everyone's use, often at short notice, while holding sufficient reserve for normal servicing and charging, and unforeseen contingencies?

Most of us are too used to owning our own transport we choose as far as possible to suit our lives, be it a cheap cycle or a top-of-the-range luxury car, to want to be subject to the vagaries of supply, over-princed "subscriptions" and the like. Let alone range limits.
SusanInFlorida · 31-35, F
@ArishMell when i decide to go the supermarket, i want to leave promptly. waiting for 20 minutes for an autonomous ride share vehicle adds nothing to the experience. a more legitimate use would be transportation to/from a night of club hopping and drinking.
ArishMell · 70-79, M
@SusanInFlorida Good point! I want to spend as little time in these awful places as possible.

I am far beyond night-clubbing, but I'd rather my taxi home is driven by a real driver. Though I'd normally still have to wait for it of course.
peterlee · M
Like satnavs they are brilliant most of the time, but can make some horrendous mistakes, and that can mean the loss of human life.

I hope the technology is up to dealing with the multitude of random potholes, of various shapes and sizes, that cover our English roads.
ArishMell · 70-79, M
@peterlee They'd most likely drive straight across the potholes, but given they presumably are controlled at least partly by sat-nav, would go out of their way to find them. (And if a taxi, to bump up the miles.)

On the more serious note, a fully "driverless" car- i.e. one that has no human oversight at all - cannot "think", and cannot "decide" its actions, and if those actions lead to serious injury or even death to its occupants or perhaps worse, to people outside it, whose fault would it be?

Even if no-one is harmed, what for example, what of stranding? What would happen if it treated a newly-installed "Road Closed" sign as it would a parked car, dodge round it and end up trapped in the road-works hole or deep flood-water that has caused the closure?

Sorting these cases out would be a nightmare, whose only result would be even more £££-per-hour for insurance-assessors, solicitors and barristers with no heart and no technical knowledge.


I think the whole business of "driverless cars" one of the worst examples I can think of, of huge, remote companies trying to make huge profits from ego-driven "because we might be able to" rather than "because we need" projects.
SusanInFlorida · 31-35, F
@peterlee by all accounts the existing robo-taxis have caused zero traffic fatalities, and few collisions beyond a minor fender bender. data is used to claim they are "400% safter than human drivers."

which if true, could result in far lower insurance premiums if people purchase self driving cars.

but the $150,000 price tag is a steep hurdle. I'd have to save $100,000 in insurance premiums over the life of the car to justify this investment.
wildbill83 · 41-45, M
the only people interested in EV's with all the fancy gizmo's (younger generations mostly) can't afford them; and those who can don't want them (I miss minimalism and physical knobs for heater, radio, etc. controls)

and anyone who's been around long enough to see how often & how badly computers fuck up don't want one driving them around autonomously... Even airlines understand this, hence why planes still have pilots (commercial aircraft have had the capability to pretty much fly themselves for over 20 years)
SusanInFlorida · 31-35, F
@wildbill83 i want legal and safe automonous cars. i'd feel better in one than taking an uber with an unknown driver.

the tech in my honda civic hybrid does a pretty decent job with blind spot warning, collision avoidance, and adaptive cruise control. it improves my confidence. but it can't drive itself
wildbill83 · 41-45, M
@SusanInFlorida I turned all that dumb shit off in my pickup. Someone that randomly jerks the steering wheel when you drive past something at a close distance is more likely to cause a wreck than prevent one...
SusanInFlorida · 31-35, F
@wildbill83 i'm hearing impaired, and wear glasses (20-200 vision). I'm saving other people's lives, possibly

 
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