Trump wants an out but it won't be easy.

The markets and oil prices have recovered a bit and Trump says negotiations are ongoing but I still have doubts.

For one, the war is still ongoing and there is no ceasefire. For two, there negotiations are probably not happening. Iran even says that Trump is saying this to calm the markets.

Trump''s fifteen points plan is likely a rehash of prior agreements that already failed. Now Iran has shown that it can block the Strait of Hormuz, it has much more negotiating leverage. They are likely to demand much more than was in the previous deal: whether it's unconditional sanction relief, reparations, or being allowed to develop nuclear capacity.

They've also said that they want to negotiate with Vance and Rubio, not Kushner and Witkoff. The latter pair have no real power, whereas the former have ambitions to be a presidential ticket. Vance and Rubio have noticeably kept a low profile because they don't want to be associated with a war going badly. They will be incentivised to make a deal

So there are many hurdles to reaching an agreement. At least any agreement that Trump can sell as a non-capitulation..Then there is Israel. Netanyahu would like the war to continue to do more damage to Iran. There is a non-negligable chance that Israel could attack Iran to deliberately sabotage a deal.

I'm relieved Trump wants to TACO. but this ridiculous war should never have started. Getting out of it is not so easy though and we can't take that for granted.

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ArishMell · 70-79, M

One says we are negotiating, the other says we are not. Whom to believe? At least Pakistan has offered to act as broker.

Iran and the USA were talking; then Israel waded in with high-explosives, so the USA joined it without consulting anyone else, and apparently with little or no clear aims or aftermath plans.

Now, even if America decently withdraws albeit with Trump claim winning a war he had already claimed over and won; as you say Israel and Iran are not likely to stop fighting.

I think a major obstacle to Iran abandoning nuclear weapons development is no-one having any moral high ground in owning the appalling things. For a country to say, "yes we have them but you can't", is tragically not credible nor tenable. Ideally, no-one should have them, but mutual fear is not ideal, and the world does not run on idealism.

Nuclear powered electricity generation is another matter. There is no reason for Iran not to use that.

A major driver for Iran's nuclear-power programme is everyone, including the oil-producing countries, needing plan for their own electrical and international trading needs when their petroleum deposits run out. As they will, even if the world no longer needs vast quantities of petroleum-based fuels - petroleum is vital for far more than just fuel.

In this matter, nations like Iran and Saudi Arabia have the advantage over the USA, Norway and UK in being rigid autocracies designed for long-term continuity of autocracy allowing planning decades hence. Sadly, the cost is dreadful tyranny over their own people. China has a similar long-term strategy advantage - and similar callousness. We have seen already the Iranians's resilience, even with their major politicians having been killed.

Waveney · 41-45, M

@ArishMell Iran has basically said the US is just negotiating with itself.

ArishMell · 70-79, M

@Waveney Yes, I heard that quote too. A rather wryly diplomatic touch by Iran, I thought.