Trump wants an out but it won't be easy.
The markets and oil prices have recovered a bit and Trump says negotiations are ongoing but I still have doubts.
For one, the war is still ongoing and there is no ceasefire. For two, there negotiations are probably not happening. Iran even says that Trump is saying this to calm the markets.
Trump''s fifteen points plan is likely a rehash of prior agreements that already failed. Now Iran has shown that it can block the Strait of Hormuz, it has much more negotiating leverage. They are likely to demand much more than was in the previous deal: whether it's unconditional sanction relief, reparations, or being allowed to develop nuclear capacity.
They've also said that they want to negotiate with Vance and Rubio, not Kushner and Witkoff. The latter pair have no real power, whereas the former have ambitions to be a presidential ticket. Vance and Rubio have noticeably kept a low profile because they don't want to be associated with a war going badly. They will be incentivised to make a deal
So there are many hurdles to reaching an agreement. At least any agreement that Trump can sell as a non-capitulation..Then there is Israel. Netanyahu would like the war to continue to do more damage to Iran. There is a non-negligable chance that Israel could attack Iran to deliberately sabotage a deal.
I'm relieved Trump wants to TACO. but this ridiculous war should never have started. Getting out of it is not so easy though and we can't take that for granted.
For one, the war is still ongoing and there is no ceasefire. For two, there negotiations are probably not happening. Iran even says that Trump is saying this to calm the markets.
Trump''s fifteen points plan is likely a rehash of prior agreements that already failed. Now Iran has shown that it can block the Strait of Hormuz, it has much more negotiating leverage. They are likely to demand much more than was in the previous deal: whether it's unconditional sanction relief, reparations, or being allowed to develop nuclear capacity.
They've also said that they want to negotiate with Vance and Rubio, not Kushner and Witkoff. The latter pair have no real power, whereas the former have ambitions to be a presidential ticket. Vance and Rubio have noticeably kept a low profile because they don't want to be associated with a war going badly. They will be incentivised to make a deal
So there are many hurdles to reaching an agreement. At least any agreement that Trump can sell as a non-capitulation..Then there is Israel. Netanyahu would like the war to continue to do more damage to Iran. There is a non-negligable chance that Israel could attack Iran to deliberately sabotage a deal.
I'm relieved Trump wants to TACO. but this ridiculous war should never have started. Getting out of it is not so easy though and we can't take that for granted.
41-45, M
