Israeli Officials Think Iran’s Regime Isn’t Likely to Fall Soon
Wall Street Journal
Mar-12-2026
Israeli officials now assess that Iran’s ruling regime is unlikely to fall in the immediate future, as Tehran’s battered rulers remain in control and conditions on the ground aren’t yet ripe for a popular uprising, people familiar with the matter said.
Nearly two weeks into the war, Iran’s military and political leadership appears functional and responsive to events, while its domestic opponents have been cowed by a heavy security presence. Israeli officials assess that changing the equation would likely require many more weeks or months of fighting.
On Thursday, the Israeli military laid out more limited goals for its activities, focusing on degrading Iran’s military capability so the regime can’t pose as much of a threat to Israel and the region.
“Our job as a military is when we see a threat to minimize it and push it away for as long as possible,” Israeli military spokesman Nadav Shoshani told reporters Thursday. “And after that there are more steps at different levels that are beyond the IDF,” he said, referring to the Israeli military.
The U.S. and Israel are likely to continue pushing to weaken the regime through economic pressure and covert activity even after any halt to the fighting, people familiar with the matter said.
President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu began the conflict calling on Iranians to take control of their country. Since then, U.S. officials have increasingly focused on narrower goals of destroying the country’s military capability, nuclear program and ballistic-missile arsenal.
Netanyahu continues to publicly encourage Iranians to prepare to take to the streets, saying the moment to act is coming. He has hinted that Israel has surprises in store for Iran.
“In the coming days we will create the conditions for you to grasp your destiny,” Netanyahu said Tuesday on social media. “When the time is right and that time is fast approaching, we will pass the torch to you. Be ready to seize that moment.”
The regime has so far proven resilient and has continued striking back, exacting a growing toll on the U.S. and its allies and the global economy.
A pair of fuel tankers were hit Wednesday night off Iraq, following attacks on cargo ships and oil tankers that have all but shut down the crucial Strait of Hormuz waterway. Dubai residents reported a series of missile warnings and intercepts early Thursday, and Gulf countries such as Bahrain and Saudi Arabia continued to be targeted in attacks. Meanwhile, Iranian security services appear to have solid control of the streets.
Iranian state media published a statement Thursday that it attributed to its new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, his first since replacing his father, who was killed in the opening salvo of the war. In the statement, he vows revenge for U.S. and Israeli attacks, orders his forces to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed and threatens to open new fronts in the war. But the statement wasn’t accompanied by video or audio, fanning speculation about his condition.
Amir Avivi, a former senior defense official close to the Israeli government, said a few more weeks of military pressure could lay the groundwork for an uprising, but that the outcome would be hard to predict.
“There was a decision to make the conditions for people to take to the streets,” he said. “We are not there yet.”
Creating conditions for regime change through a military campaign was always a tall order, said Assaf Orion, the former head of strategic planning for the Israeli military.
“There is no recipe for this. It’s not mechanical engineering,” he said. “The war is planned to last weeks, and these processes can take years.”
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar acknowledged as much in an interview Wednesday with the Times of Israel. He said military action alone can’t topple Iran’s regime, which is something that needs to be done by Iranians themselves and isn’t likely to happen until after the war. “Usually such things happen after the military campaign, less so when there’s a war,” Sa’ar told the Times.
Judging the resilience of Iran’s rulers is tricky given the opaque nature of the regime’s inner circles and the lack of a sustained foreign military presence on the ground. They could come under heavier pressure as the U.S. and Israel continue their attacks.
Despite Netanyahu’s public statements, Israel’s security services have said it would take time to grind down the Iranian regime and that they were facing a ticking clock once the war began.
Once it got control of Iran’s airspace, Israel’s air force began hitting Iran’s repressive apparatus in earnest, striking the bases and command centers of domestic security forces in the hope of creating the conditions for a popular uprising. Those strikes are increasing, an Israeli military official said Wednesday.
Trump has said in interviews this week that the war in Iran could end soon, without providing a timeline. Israel hopes for additional time to fight, but officials are aware Trump faces domestic pressure and could end the war abruptly, one of the people familiar with the matter said.
A failure to unseat the regime could leave a hard-line and emboldened regime in the war’s wake. “If this doesn’t succeed, you have to live with the results,” Orion said.
There is no clear mechanism for unseating the regime. Trump toyed last week with the idea of Kurdish involvement in the war. But Iranian-Kurdish armed groups—mostly based in neighboring Iraq and in border areas—say the conditions aren’t there and that Iranian government forces are still too strong.
Domestic discontent with Iran’s government is running high. But the government retains its monopoly over the use of force. Residents said members of the paramilitary Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and of the Basij, their plainclothes enforcers, are visible on the streets of Tehran and other Iranian cities.
Security forces are threatening would-be protesters with a shoot-to-kill order, raising the possibility of a repeat of the January crackdown, when thousands of antigovernment protesters were killed.
They have also adapted to the punishment. Despite intense Israeli strikes in the city of Isfahan, security forces still appear to control the city. Members of the Basij have been roaming the streets on motorcycles brandishing guns and flags of the Islamic Republic, one resident said.
Many opponents of the Iranian state believe that rising up against their leaders under the current conditions and with no guarantee of continued foreign military support would be suicidal.
The Isfahan resident said he met with friends late Wednesday, and they ruled out resuming protests for now, saying many are losing hope amid threats from the regime. A woman in the city of Mashhad said opponents of the government still want to bring down the Islamic Republic, but said they are also staying at home for fear of a crackdown.
A resident of the northern Iranian city of Rasht said it was unrealistic to rely on unarmed civilians to topple a regime accused of killing its people en masse, adding it would be a bloodbath.
Mar-12-2026
Israeli officials now assess that Iran’s ruling regime is unlikely to fall in the immediate future, as Tehran’s battered rulers remain in control and conditions on the ground aren’t yet ripe for a popular uprising, people familiar with the matter said.
Nearly two weeks into the war, Iran’s military and political leadership appears functional and responsive to events, while its domestic opponents have been cowed by a heavy security presence. Israeli officials assess that changing the equation would likely require many more weeks or months of fighting.
On Thursday, the Israeli military laid out more limited goals for its activities, focusing on degrading Iran’s military capability so the regime can’t pose as much of a threat to Israel and the region.
“Our job as a military is when we see a threat to minimize it and push it away for as long as possible,” Israeli military spokesman Nadav Shoshani told reporters Thursday. “And after that there are more steps at different levels that are beyond the IDF,” he said, referring to the Israeli military.
The U.S. and Israel are likely to continue pushing to weaken the regime through economic pressure and covert activity even after any halt to the fighting, people familiar with the matter said.
President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu began the conflict calling on Iranians to take control of their country. Since then, U.S. officials have increasingly focused on narrower goals of destroying the country’s military capability, nuclear program and ballistic-missile arsenal.
Netanyahu continues to publicly encourage Iranians to prepare to take to the streets, saying the moment to act is coming. He has hinted that Israel has surprises in store for Iran.
“In the coming days we will create the conditions for you to grasp your destiny,” Netanyahu said Tuesday on social media. “When the time is right and that time is fast approaching, we will pass the torch to you. Be ready to seize that moment.”
The regime has so far proven resilient and has continued striking back, exacting a growing toll on the U.S. and its allies and the global economy.
A pair of fuel tankers were hit Wednesday night off Iraq, following attacks on cargo ships and oil tankers that have all but shut down the crucial Strait of Hormuz waterway. Dubai residents reported a series of missile warnings and intercepts early Thursday, and Gulf countries such as Bahrain and Saudi Arabia continued to be targeted in attacks. Meanwhile, Iranian security services appear to have solid control of the streets.
Iranian state media published a statement Thursday that it attributed to its new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, his first since replacing his father, who was killed in the opening salvo of the war. In the statement, he vows revenge for U.S. and Israeli attacks, orders his forces to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed and threatens to open new fronts in the war. But the statement wasn’t accompanied by video or audio, fanning speculation about his condition.
Amir Avivi, a former senior defense official close to the Israeli government, said a few more weeks of military pressure could lay the groundwork for an uprising, but that the outcome would be hard to predict.
“There was a decision to make the conditions for people to take to the streets,” he said. “We are not there yet.”
Creating conditions for regime change through a military campaign was always a tall order, said Assaf Orion, the former head of strategic planning for the Israeli military.
“There is no recipe for this. It’s not mechanical engineering,” he said. “The war is planned to last weeks, and these processes can take years.”
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar acknowledged as much in an interview Wednesday with the Times of Israel. He said military action alone can’t topple Iran’s regime, which is something that needs to be done by Iranians themselves and isn’t likely to happen until after the war. “Usually such things happen after the military campaign, less so when there’s a war,” Sa’ar told the Times.
Judging the resilience of Iran’s rulers is tricky given the opaque nature of the regime’s inner circles and the lack of a sustained foreign military presence on the ground. They could come under heavier pressure as the U.S. and Israel continue their attacks.
Despite Netanyahu’s public statements, Israel’s security services have said it would take time to grind down the Iranian regime and that they were facing a ticking clock once the war began.
Once it got control of Iran’s airspace, Israel’s air force began hitting Iran’s repressive apparatus in earnest, striking the bases and command centers of domestic security forces in the hope of creating the conditions for a popular uprising. Those strikes are increasing, an Israeli military official said Wednesday.
Trump has said in interviews this week that the war in Iran could end soon, without providing a timeline. Israel hopes for additional time to fight, but officials are aware Trump faces domestic pressure and could end the war abruptly, one of the people familiar with the matter said.
A failure to unseat the regime could leave a hard-line and emboldened regime in the war’s wake. “If this doesn’t succeed, you have to live with the results,” Orion said.
There is no clear mechanism for unseating the regime. Trump toyed last week with the idea of Kurdish involvement in the war. But Iranian-Kurdish armed groups—mostly based in neighboring Iraq and in border areas—say the conditions aren’t there and that Iranian government forces are still too strong.
Domestic discontent with Iran’s government is running high. But the government retains its monopoly over the use of force. Residents said members of the paramilitary Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and of the Basij, their plainclothes enforcers, are visible on the streets of Tehran and other Iranian cities.
Security forces are threatening would-be protesters with a shoot-to-kill order, raising the possibility of a repeat of the January crackdown, when thousands of antigovernment protesters were killed.
They have also adapted to the punishment. Despite intense Israeli strikes in the city of Isfahan, security forces still appear to control the city. Members of the Basij have been roaming the streets on motorcycles brandishing guns and flags of the Islamic Republic, one resident said.
Many opponents of the Iranian state believe that rising up against their leaders under the current conditions and with no guarantee of continued foreign military support would be suicidal.
The Isfahan resident said he met with friends late Wednesday, and they ruled out resuming protests for now, saying many are losing hope amid threats from the regime. A woman in the city of Mashhad said opponents of the government still want to bring down the Islamic Republic, but said they are also staying at home for fear of a crackdown.
A resident of the northern Iranian city of Rasht said it was unrealistic to rely on unarmed civilians to topple a regime accused of killing its people en masse, adding it would be a bloodbath.
