Trump’s Head-Spinning Pivot on an Emergency Oil Release
Wall Street Journal
Mar-11-2026
In a rapid reversal that left U.S. allies stunned, the Trump administration shifted from opposing the largest-ever intervention in oil markets to cajoling allies into moving forward with the maneuver in a matter of hours.
Tensions in the global oil market seemed to be easing on Tuesday just as Western governments and their allies were debating a major release of emergency oil reserves to calm prices. President Trump said the war with Iran would be over soon, and some European nations were questioning whether governments should intervene at all, U.S. and European officials familiar with the discussion said.
According to the officials, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright gave his counterparts in the Group of Seven nations the White House’s position Tuesday morning: A massive intervention in oil markets was premature because the price of oil had recently dipped below $90 a barrel.
Less than two hours later, U.S. officials reversed their earlier position and pushed their counterparts for a major release of oil, said people familiar with the matter. The 180 degree turn was entirely due to a change of heart by President Trump, said a senior administration official.
Wright’s earlier stance reflected Trump’s views, according to the administration official. The president began the day opposed to release of oil, but changed his mind after advisers persuaded him that such a move was necessary to quell volatile oil prices, the official said. Trump told Wright to push for market intervention.
European officials were shocked, but threw caution to the wind. The 32 member nations of the International Energy Agency agreed to the largest release of emergency oil stocks in the group’s history, breaking with the international body’s own conventions, which typically give members 48 hours to review proposals. The amount, 400 million barrels, is more than double the previous release and comes at a time when the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is only 60% full—despite a pledge by Trump to fill it completely.
The release is mostly due to concerns within the Trump administration that the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow Persian Gulf waterway that supplies a fifth of the world’s oil, could be closed for weeks or longer, according to U.S. officials.
Some IEA member states that initially opposed the move acquiesced to the Trump administration’s demands, shelving their concerns that a major intervention wouldn’t do much to lower prices while the strait remained closed.
The whiplash reflects the volatility of the Trump administration’s decision-making as it prosecutes the war with Iran.
“The fundamental thing I’ve been shocked by is the lack of preparation for the energy market consequences of this,” said Arnab Datta, managing director of policy implementation at Employ America, a Washington research group that has advocated for more aggressive use of strategic reserves. “There was nothing ready. Absolutely nothing.”
Still, skepticism abounds about whether the 400 million barrel release will be enough to keep prices below $100 a barrel. The size of the release accounts for only about 20 days of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, officials say. Details on the plan remain scarce, and the pace of the release will dictate its effect on prices. The IEA said more details are forthcoming.
Oil prices rose more than 5% on Wednesday, with most of the increase coming after The Wall Street Journal reported details of the IEA’s unprecedented market intervention plan.
“The rate at which IEA members can provide emergency barrels to the market cannot concurrently cover the loss of supply in the Middle East, even if the hostilities were to end soon,” said Hamad Hussain, an economist at Capital Economics in London.
The U.S. will supply the lion’s share of the release, more than 100 million of the 400 million barrels, according to people familiar with the matter. U.S. reserves could be less than half full if the Trump administration ends up releasing all of that onto the market, the lowest level since at least 2008. In his inaugural address, Trump pledged to fill the nation’s reserves “right to the top.”
Iran making good on its threat to close the Strait of Hormuz changed the equation on market intervention. Officials scrambled to respond to the economic shock without laying diplomatic groundwork for such an intervention or consulting key allies in advance—even as Iran had threatened to close the Strait in the event of a U.S. attack long before the bombing campaign began on Feb. 28.
Some member states, including Germany, Europe’s largest economy, were initially reluctant to back a major oil release. But Asian nations such as Japan—which relies on the Gulf for the bulk of its oil imports—rallied behind the idea.
The plan would far surpass a previous collective global release of 182 million barrels following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Japan would release 30.5 million barrels, Canada 23.6 million and Germany 19.5 million, according to a European energy minister. France would contribute 14.5 million barrels, French officials said. The remaining 32 IEA members would contribute smaller volumes.
Some energy ministers worked through the night, consulting each other and seeking advice from leading energy experts. The chief executive of a major U.S. investment bank warned one European minister that firing the biggest bazooka so early in the war could backfire, signaling to markets that Trump was losing his nerve.
But governments quickly dropped their resistance to avoid a public show of discord that they feared would trigger even greater market volatility.
Governments are planning to release their reserves to the market over several months to stagger the effect, officials said.
Germany’s energy minister Katherina Reiche appeared to offer arguments against the release even as she announced that Germany would take part in it.
“We are far from the $110 per barrel and the markets seem to be reacting positively,” Reiche told reporters Wednesday.
Mar-11-2026
In a rapid reversal that left U.S. allies stunned, the Trump administration shifted from opposing the largest-ever intervention in oil markets to cajoling allies into moving forward with the maneuver in a matter of hours.
Tensions in the global oil market seemed to be easing on Tuesday just as Western governments and their allies were debating a major release of emergency oil reserves to calm prices. President Trump said the war with Iran would be over soon, and some European nations were questioning whether governments should intervene at all, U.S. and European officials familiar with the discussion said.
According to the officials, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright gave his counterparts in the Group of Seven nations the White House’s position Tuesday morning: A massive intervention in oil markets was premature because the price of oil had recently dipped below $90 a barrel.
Less than two hours later, U.S. officials reversed their earlier position and pushed their counterparts for a major release of oil, said people familiar with the matter. The 180 degree turn was entirely due to a change of heart by President Trump, said a senior administration official.
Wright’s earlier stance reflected Trump’s views, according to the administration official. The president began the day opposed to release of oil, but changed his mind after advisers persuaded him that such a move was necessary to quell volatile oil prices, the official said. Trump told Wright to push for market intervention.
European officials were shocked, but threw caution to the wind. The 32 member nations of the International Energy Agency agreed to the largest release of emergency oil stocks in the group’s history, breaking with the international body’s own conventions, which typically give members 48 hours to review proposals. The amount, 400 million barrels, is more than double the previous release and comes at a time when the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is only 60% full—despite a pledge by Trump to fill it completely.
The release is mostly due to concerns within the Trump administration that the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow Persian Gulf waterway that supplies a fifth of the world’s oil, could be closed for weeks or longer, according to U.S. officials.
Some IEA member states that initially opposed the move acquiesced to the Trump administration’s demands, shelving their concerns that a major intervention wouldn’t do much to lower prices while the strait remained closed.
The whiplash reflects the volatility of the Trump administration’s decision-making as it prosecutes the war with Iran.
“The fundamental thing I’ve been shocked by is the lack of preparation for the energy market consequences of this,” said Arnab Datta, managing director of policy implementation at Employ America, a Washington research group that has advocated for more aggressive use of strategic reserves. “There was nothing ready. Absolutely nothing.”
Still, skepticism abounds about whether the 400 million barrel release will be enough to keep prices below $100 a barrel. The size of the release accounts for only about 20 days of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, officials say. Details on the plan remain scarce, and the pace of the release will dictate its effect on prices. The IEA said more details are forthcoming.
Oil prices rose more than 5% on Wednesday, with most of the increase coming after The Wall Street Journal reported details of the IEA’s unprecedented market intervention plan.
“The rate at which IEA members can provide emergency barrels to the market cannot concurrently cover the loss of supply in the Middle East, even if the hostilities were to end soon,” said Hamad Hussain, an economist at Capital Economics in London.
The U.S. will supply the lion’s share of the release, more than 100 million of the 400 million barrels, according to people familiar with the matter. U.S. reserves could be less than half full if the Trump administration ends up releasing all of that onto the market, the lowest level since at least 2008. In his inaugural address, Trump pledged to fill the nation’s reserves “right to the top.”
Iran making good on its threat to close the Strait of Hormuz changed the equation on market intervention. Officials scrambled to respond to the economic shock without laying diplomatic groundwork for such an intervention or consulting key allies in advance—even as Iran had threatened to close the Strait in the event of a U.S. attack long before the bombing campaign began on Feb. 28.
Some member states, including Germany, Europe’s largest economy, were initially reluctant to back a major oil release. But Asian nations such as Japan—which relies on the Gulf for the bulk of its oil imports—rallied behind the idea.
The plan would far surpass a previous collective global release of 182 million barrels following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Japan would release 30.5 million barrels, Canada 23.6 million and Germany 19.5 million, according to a European energy minister. France would contribute 14.5 million barrels, French officials said. The remaining 32 IEA members would contribute smaller volumes.
Some energy ministers worked through the night, consulting each other and seeking advice from leading energy experts. The chief executive of a major U.S. investment bank warned one European minister that firing the biggest bazooka so early in the war could backfire, signaling to markets that Trump was losing his nerve.
But governments quickly dropped their resistance to avoid a public show of discord that they feared would trigger even greater market volatility.
Governments are planning to release their reserves to the market over several months to stagger the effect, officials said.
Germany’s energy minister Katherina Reiche appeared to offer arguments against the release even as she announced that Germany would take part in it.
“We are far from the $110 per barrel and the markets seem to be reacting positively,” Reiche told reporters Wednesday.
