Iran war: Who can take the pain the longest?

Iran has been enduring a near-constant stream of American and Israeli airstrikes it can’t defend against. Despite that, it continues to launch missiles and drones across the region.

Gulf Arab states, while still not combatants in the war, face seemingly unending and occasionally fatal Iranian fire targeting oil fields, cities and critical water works. Everybody, who can, is fleeing.

Israel, while boasting of inflicting heavy damage on Iran’s missile program and other military targets, continues to be targeted by sophisticated Iranian missiles that send a buckshot-like spray of high explosives on its cities.

The state of the global economy and energy markets is teetering for now - no real pain yet.

Trump threatens Death, Fire, and Fury on Iran if Iran stops oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz has trickled down since February 27 when the war started. Nothing is moving through the Straits now even though it has not been closed by Iran. No insurance. "These ships should show some guts. There is nothing to be afraid of", said Trump.

It's not the ships, Mr President, it's the insurance companies. And they are waiting for the US Navy to move into the Straits of Hormuz and show the world that it is safe.

ArishMell · 70-79, M

Where is that USN aircraft-carrier group now?

Iran's Navy might not have blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, but would not need to if the land forces can attack ships with missiles.

It's not just insurers who are stopping the ships, but the ship owners too. They don't want their unarmed vessels sunk, their crews killed, the Persian Gulf and its shores covered with lost oil.

That quote shows that Mr. Trump does not understand the situation, and his implication that the ships' crews are cowards does him no favours at all.

sree251 · 41-45, M

@swirlie

Prior to Pete Hegseth mentioning that the US destroyed the Iranian Navy, nobody on earth even knew that the Iranians HAD a navy in the first place.

Quite right. Iran doesn't have a fighting navy by western blue water navy standards. Iran has no reason to have one. All they need to guard is the Straits of Hormuz. And the US Navy is ill suited to sail through the Straits of Hormuz. Every US Navy ship stupid enough to do that will be sitting ducks. Trading fire with Iranian missiles from the shore will be suicidal. It will be like shooting fish in a barrel.

What the US destroyed of the Iranian Navy were a bunch boats about the size of large drug-smuggling vessels the US typically destroyed that were coming out of Venezuela heading for Mara Largo Florida to unload.

Right. I am not sure that those boats were destroyed. They are tucked along the shoreline and hidden in tunnels.

ArishMell · 70-79, M

@sree251
I agree - I suppose the thinking is the aircraft carrier flotilla would sit well outside the Persian Gulf and attack Iran from the air.

The small boats (or were) are mainly Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy assets, suitable for fighting within the Persian Gulf, or blockading the Strait of Hormuz.

The nation's regular navy have - or had - much more, including destroyers or frigates, about 3 diesel-electric attack submarines of limited use within the Gulf (much of it is too shallow for them), small "mini-submarines" and a special helicopter / drone carrier.

They have lost a good many vessels including larger ships, though probably not the entire two fleets.

Never underestimate the enemy- one of the oldest maxims of warfare.