How Anonymous Bettors Cashed In on the Iran Strike, Just Hours Before It Happened
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One day before the United States and Israel launched an attack on Iran, a surge in big bets placed on Polymarket on Friday suggested that some bettors may have seen the strike coming.
Polymarket, one of the world’s largest prediction markets, allows its users to wager anonymously on just about any future event, including elections and sports. It has also allowed betting on war, and since the end of last year more than $529 million has been traded on predictions of when the United States would attack Iran next, after it struck Iranian nuclear facilities last June.
A New York Times analysis of Polymarket data over that period found that it was relatively uncommon for someone to bet a significant sum of money that a U.S. strike would happen by the next day.
But over the course of Friday, more than 150 accounts placed hundreds of bets of at least $1,000, correctly predicting an American strike on Iran by Saturday.
At least 16 accounts that placed bets Friday predicting a strike by Saturday each ultimately profited by over $100,000, according to the Times analysis. At least 109 accounts made over $10,000. One anonymous wallet that spent over $60,000 on “yes” shares, mostly in the days before the attack, made nearly half a million dollars.
One day before the United States and Israel launched an attack on Iran, a surge in big bets placed on Polymarket on Friday suggested that some bettors may have seen the strike coming.
Polymarket, one of the world’s largest prediction markets, allows its users to wager anonymously on just about any future event, including elections and sports. It has also allowed betting on war, and since the end of last year more than $529 million has been traded on predictions of when the United States would attack Iran next, after it struck Iranian nuclear facilities last June.
A New York Times analysis of Polymarket data over that period found that it was relatively uncommon for someone to bet a significant sum of money that a U.S. strike would happen by the next day.
But over the course of Friday, more than 150 accounts placed hundreds of bets of at least $1,000, correctly predicting an American strike on Iran by Saturday.
At least 16 accounts that placed bets Friday predicting a strike by Saturday each ultimately profited by over $100,000, according to the Times analysis. At least 109 accounts made over $10,000. One anonymous wallet that spent over $60,000 on “yes” shares, mostly in the days before the attack, made nearly half a million dollars.
